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1 200 Prospects for Supply: South Africa • Ex-China markets have shown patchy demand – Europe’s imports of charge chrome to date in 2012 have been buoyed by early year restocking, but since end of Q1 activity has been slow • Short term, South African supply will probably compensate in Q3-4 for some of the production cuts earlier this year • Longer term, the expansion at Outokumpu appears to increase the chances of Europe’s external demand for HC/Ch declining South Africa's main charge chrome export markets Outokumpu's FeCr expansion could reduce European import demand, which would impact S.African producers 2 100 000 1 000 1 900 000 1 700 000 '000 tonnes 800 600 400 EU27 Japan Taiwan tonnes 1 500 000 1 300 000 1 100 000 900 000 HC Ferrochrome imports (C>4%) tonnes 200 700 000 HC Ferrochrome apparent consumption (C>4%) tonnes 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* Source: ICDA, 2012*= Jan-May annualised 500 000 Source: ICDA 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015*
Conclusions • Pricing developments so far this year point to a divergence between the Chinese and ex-Chinese markets for HC/Ch FeCr – the influential factors behind this have been growing Chinese supply and contracting South African supply • Stainless steel production likely to grow at 4%+ in 2012 – but most of that increase will be due to growth in China • HC/Ch FeCr consumption growth likely to exceed stainless steel production growth, but only modestly • Obstacles to China becoming increasingly self-sufficient in HC/Ch FeCr over the next few years do not look especially severe – sufficient chrome ore supply should be available • China’s self-sufficiency displaces demand for South African supply – South Africa producers will have to tailor supply to slower-growing markets until they become more cost competitive
Page 1 and 2: Ferrochrome Market Overview Sheraz
Page 3 and 4: Chrome: Stainless steel’s essenti
Page 5 and 6: Setting the scene: Recent developme
Page 7 and 8: Recent developments: Supply • Ene
Page 9 and 10: Recent developments Returning to th
Page 11 and 12: Prospects for Demand: Stainless Ste
Page 13 and 14: Prospects for Demand: HC/Ch FeCr de
Page 15 and 16: Prospects for Demand: HC/Ch FeCr de
Page 17 and 18: Prospects for Supply • Transforma
Page 19 and 20: Prospects for Supply: China Is ther
Page 21: 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 Prosp

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