REVIEW - Air Power Studies

120
and nature of forces deployable
in the event of a crisis are
many, all of which contribute to
a spectrum of potential
responses and serve to signal
will and intent.
• Assure allies. The ramifications
of action, or even threatened
action, can resonate through
friendly and neutral entities.
• Credibility as function
of capability and will. The
will to commit force is central
to its credibility. The capability
and the will must be evident to
an opponent. Our own
democratic decision making
constrain and shape the
nature of activity governments
can undertake. Illegal, immoral
or irrational actions generally
result in a change of
government, not in a change
of behaviour in an opponent.
• Military to military
engagement as an element of
deterrence. A keen
understanding of capability
and shared understanding of
objectives shapes thinking
and advice offered in crisis.
In the cold war, our opponents
were very easy to find and
understand, but difficult to destroy.
The reverse is true in the current
operating environment. Our
opponents, or challengers, are
dispersed and frequently anonymous.
They may act in support of the
interests of a nation state or theology,
but are not under control of any
central authority. They are frequently
post-modern syndicated entities,
virtual, but with a logic, comparable
to a franchise, branded but largely
self-employed. This suggests that
the most immediate challenge is not
to destroy the opponent, we have
more than enough strike capability
to reach out globally and destroy, but
to find, to analyse and understand
his motivation, his decisionmaking
process and values. Each
challenger, economic, theological
or cultural entity, trans or sub-state,
has a rationale, an identity, and a
demographic on which they draw
and a constituency on whose behalf
they act. For each these must be
clearly understood and articulated
to inform the levers which might
influence behaviour. Pressure may
then be applied, through potential or
actual actions, which will coerce in a
predictable and measurable manner.
Unconventional Deterrence
At the core of that challenge is
the need to identify an opponent.
The identity, the self-image, that
motivates him to act, not the
shorthand language of outrage we
employ in the press and in politics
which serves no purpose other to fuel
righteous indignation. No-one is a
terrorist, or an extremist. People act
for a reason. They have a putative
cause, declaratory and operational
policy. Understand the nature of
that identity and that reasoning,
determine what he holds dear, that