20May 2010Gas Vehicles ReportThoughts about NGV potentials provokedby new article published in USAMonthly columnPeter BoisenIn an American study(http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/04/american_fuel.html) published on April 14 I found thefollowing statement:The United States should continue topursue electric and plug-in hybridelectric options for gasoline-poweredlight-duty passenger cars and trucks,but these technologies are unlikely tobe efficient or cost effective forheavier vehicles.The study goes on to project a closeto 100 % share for natural gaspowered heavy duty vehicle sales by2035. HD NGVs would by thenaccount for 3.5 million out of totally15.9 million HD vehicles in USA, andthe increased NGV use would meana reduction of the oil demand by 1.2million barrels per day. The predictedoil shortage is obviously the maindriver behind the growing NGvolumes. Reduced CO2 emissionsare seen as a side benefit. Fortrucks used in long distance haulagethe study also points out that thenatural gas used would have to bedistributed in the form of LNG ratherthan CNG to achieve a sufficientlyhigh operating range with full tanks.So far only a small fraction of therequired LNG refuelling outlets havebeen installed.The extent to which electric or plug-inhybrid electric vehicles will be able toreplace light duty vehicles withinternal combustion engines is still awide open issue. Production andmaintenance (battery replacements)costs would have to be dramaticallyreduced before the electric vehicleswould be commercially competetive.Considering the worldwide need toreduce oil use and greenhouse gasemissions governments cannot putall eggs in one basket and onlysupport electric vehicles. Alternativefuels must also be considered.Natural gas is still the only alternativewhich on its own could replace asubstantial part (10 % or more) ofthe oil demand. And, looking atbiofuel alternatives, biomethane(chemically identical with natural gas)is a superior choice - based onrecycling of any kind of organic wasteor surplus, offering extremely lowgreenhouse gas emissions (in somecases on a well-to-wheels basis evenwith a "negative" GHG impact), likenatural gas no toxic orcarcinogenic emissions, and noblending restrictions.Countries like Pakistan, Iran,Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia, andBangladesh have alreadydemonstrated that NG poweredvehicles could account for 15-25 %or more of all light duty vehicles. Inmost of these countries the successwas mainly built on conversions ofexisting fleets, but in Iran OEMproduced NGVs are already moreimportant than retrofitted vehicles.In Western Europe light duty NGVcustomers are usually no longerinterested in NGV concepts using gascylinders fitted in the luggage compartment,but instead choosing OEMvehicles with under floor gas cylinderinstallations. The sales achievementsvary significantly between differentcountries, and are influenced by thedensity and standard of the refuellingnetwork, and also by variousincentives offered by the authorities.In Italy more than 6 % of all newcars sold in 2009 were NGVs, inSweden some 4 %.Looking into the future the politicaldemands on reductions of CO2emissions will help to boost NGVsales. Downsized compressor and/orturbo charged NG engines, combinedwith new technology to avoidthrottling losses, will e.g.help theEuropean car industry to meet the130 g/km CO2 target from 2015,and the later 95 g/km target from2020.Oil companies have in general (inmost countries) not shown any senceof urgency concering the offer of NGrefuelling at their retail outlets. It is,of course, difficult to develop themarket for privately owned NGVsunless the car owners can count onadequate refuelling facilities beingavailable. Until this problem is solvedthe NGV market is in many countriesstill more or less limited to municipalfleets of buses or garbage trucksrefuelled at municipally owneddepots.One concept for solving theinfrastructure issues is to subletspace at normal gasoline and dieselfilling stations to gas distributioncompanies. These gas companieswould supply the gas and provide thestation operator with a commissionon the value of the sold gas. A broadintroduction of this kind ofcooperation could be supported bynational government initiatives. Thereare numerous ways in which such
May 2010Gas Vehicles Report21developments could be encouraged,e.g. by linking building permits atattarctive sites to the offer of gasvehicle refuelling.The fact that NG is now alsobecoming an interesting fuel optionfor ships (particularly ships used oninland waterways or in coastalwaters), and then normally handledin the form of LNG, means increasedavailability of supply points for LNGintended for use within thetransportation sector.Summary:In a post recession market, wherecrude oil prices are again set to takeoff, security of supply concerns havein USA evoked a strongly growingsupport for natural gas used as avehicle fuel. The argumentspresented are valid all around theglobe. The critical issue, whetherdiscussing heavy duty trucks used inlong haulage traffic, or privatelyoperated light duty vehicles, is theavailability of required refuellingservices. If national governmentswish to reduce the dependence onoil, it is in many countries high timethat they take action to provide anadequate NG refuelling infrastructurevia the use of suitable'encouragement'.To secure sufficiently largereductions of the crude oil demand itis also necessary to build aconfidence among fuel consumersabout the longevity of costadvantages achieved via the use ofNGVs. To switch all effortsconcerning reduced oil use into avery expensive financial support ofelectrical vehicles would be a veryirresponsible policy. Putting all eggsinto one basket is never a good idea.