Cyclone Frequency, 1980 – 2000High0 50 100 kmLowBangladeshArea under Cropland100%<strong>In</strong>diaDhaka<strong>In</strong>dia0%no dataKolkataMaximum Flood Extent, 2007 ood extentLow Elevation Coast Zone1 meter 2 metersUrban ExtentsEACH-FORStudy AreaMajor CitiesCountry BordersPopulation Density, 2000 (persons per km²)120 1 – 4 5 – 24 25 – 249 250 – 999 1,000 +
3.4 The Ganges Delta: Temporary migration as a survival strategy<strong>In</strong>cluding the Ganges, Bangladesh contains seven major and overtwo hundred minor rivers, all <strong>of</strong> which define the delta geography<strong>of</strong> Bangladesh and the way <strong>of</strong> life <strong>of</strong> its people. Bangladesh isone <strong>of</strong> the most densely populated countries in the world, anda large part <strong>of</strong> its people depends on natural resources <strong>for</strong> theirlivelihoods. Although flooding is a part <strong>of</strong> the livelihood structureand culture, climate change will accelerate change in this alreadydynamic environment and leave millions <strong>of</strong> Bangladeshis exposed toincreased flooding, severe cyclones, and sea level rise impacts. 75More than 5 million Bangladeshis live in areas highly vulnerableto cyclones and storm surges, and over half the populationlives within 100 km <strong>of</strong> the coast, most <strong>of</strong> which is less than12 meters above sea level. 76 Flooding currently displaces about500,000 people every year. <strong>In</strong> 2007, two extreme weather eventsdevastated the country: Flooding caused 3,363 deaths and affected10 million people as well as reducing crop yields by 13 percent.Just months later, Cyclone Sidr destroyed 1.5 million houses,large areas <strong>of</strong> cropland and mangrove <strong>for</strong>ests, and affected 30 out<strong>of</strong> 64 districts in the country. Millions experienced food insecurity(monga) and required evacuation, shelter and relief assistance. 77As devastating as these cyclones were, early warning systems weresuccessful in preventing the deaths <strong>of</strong> many thousands more. <strong>In</strong>1970 a cyclones caused the deaths <strong>of</strong> an estimated 300,000, andin 1991 another 140,000 died. 78The Bangladesh EACH-FOR case study found that flooding andbank erosion are a complex mix <strong>of</strong> natural and socioeconomicprocesses contributing to population displacement. 79 Combinedwith sea level rise, storm surges linked to cyclones couldtemporarily inundate large areas <strong>of</strong> Bangladesh—one studysuggested that up to 25 percent <strong>of</strong> the country could experiencesuch a scenario. 80Temporary migration linked to flooding and other disasters,frequently to Dhaka and other urban centers, is viewed as botha coping and survival strategy to escape riverbank erosion, thedevastation <strong>of</strong> cyclones, and food insecurity. Almost all areas inBangladesh are densely populated and under cultivation, andmany locations are vulnerable to similar environmental risks.There are no guarantees <strong>of</strong> finding employment or housing in theplace <strong>of</strong> destination.For coastal fishing villages, cyclones, storm surges, and sealevel rise pose a <strong>for</strong>midable adaptation challenge. One fishermaninterviewed by a journalist during the 2008 cyclone seasonnoted, “The sea has been coming closer and closer,” thenadded in Bengali, “Allah jane ke hobe. Sahbi shesh ho jabe.”[God only knows what will happen. Everything will come to anend.] <strong>In</strong> spite <strong>of</strong> accelerated erosion related to stronger andhigher tides, villagers are determined to stay and pursue theirlivelihoods as long as possible. The same journalist interviewedanother fisherman who said, “We can´t do anything else, whichis why we think twice about migrating from here. We know theend is coming, but what work will we find to feed our familieselsewhere?” 81What does this map tell us?The main map depicts areas <strong>of</strong> sea level rise at 1 and 2 meters (dark and light blue, respectively) on a population density map withurban extents delineated. It also shows the regions <strong>of</strong> the EACH-FOR study areas in the lower delta. The Ganges delta supporteda population <strong>of</strong> 144 million in 2000, out <strong>of</strong> which 9.4 million lived in areas that would be inundated by a 2 meter sea level rise.The top left inset map shows those areas most frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. Low elevation areas in the southeasterncorner <strong>of</strong> the delta are most affected. The bottom left inset map depicts the area affected by the 2007 flood. The middle insetmap shows the distribution <strong>of</strong> agricultural lands. The delta has 8.5 million ha <strong>of</strong> agricultural lands, <strong>of</strong> which 486 thousand hawould be inundated by a 2 meter sea level rise. <strong>In</strong> the Ganges Delta, living with varying water levels is a way <strong>of</strong> life. Migration,particularly towards coastal urban centers, has emerged as a coping mechanism when extreme events endanger life and livelihoods.With projected sea level rise, combined with the possibility <strong>of</strong> more intense flooding and storm surges, migration may become anecessity <strong>for</strong> many communities, at least <strong>for</strong> parts <strong>of</strong> the year.Even if the causes <strong>of</strong> migration are similar from one person to thenext, people opt <strong>for</strong> different strategies in terms <strong>of</strong> destinationand timing <strong>of</strong> migration. But there might be a moment when theywill not be able to adapt any more. <strong>In</strong> 20 or 30 years Bangladeshmay see mass movement <strong>of</strong> people from flood-prone areas, possiblyto urban centers. The current structures and organizations tohelp the victims <strong>of</strong> disasters will not be enough to cope withthe increase <strong>of</strong> migration flows in the future. Given the politicalinstability <strong>of</strong> the region, population movements associated withclimate change could become an issue <strong>for</strong> regional security.However, adaptation strategies could reduce the environmentalvulnerability and increase the resilience <strong>of</strong> local populations.EACH-FOR research suggests that the population is already workingto adapt to the new situation, mainly by leaving agriculture <strong>for</strong>other livelihoods such as shrimp farming. 82 The worsening <strong>of</strong>the environmental situation in the Ganges delta, however, couldrender migration as one <strong>of</strong> the most realistic options available <strong>for</strong>some Bangladeshi people.13©CARE
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