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76 McGranahan et al. 2007. See note 7 above.77 Women´s Environment and Development Organization (WEDO), ABANTUfor Development in Ghana, ActionAid Bangladesh, and ENDA in Senegal.2008. Gender, climate change and human security: Lessons fromBangladesh, Ghana, and Senegal. http://www.wedo.org/files/HSN%20Study%20Final%20May%2020,%202008.pdf.78 British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). 1988: Bangladesh cyclone ‘worstfor 20 years‘. BBC.co.uk, 2 December. http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/2/newsid_2518000/2518233.stm.79 Poncelet 2009. See note 75 above.80 UNEP-GRID. See note 23 above.81 IRIN. 2008. Bangladesh: When climate change gives you a sinking feeling.IRIN Print Report Humanitarian News and Analysis, IRINnews.org, 22October. http://www.irinnews.org/PrintReport.aspx?ReportId=81079.82 However, alternative livelihoods must be feasible for those most vulnerableto climate change and other environmental stressors. The EACH-FOR fieldresearcher for the Bangladesh case study noted that some activities likeshrimp farming may be too expensive for vulnerable farmers to take upas a livelihood alternative. Poncelet, A. 2009. Alternative livelihoods forvulnerable farmers in Bangladesh. Personal communication 11 May 2009.83 Lettenmaier 2000 cited in White, I., ed. 2002. Water management in theMekong Delta: Changes, conflicts and opportunities. IHP-VI TechnicalPapers in Hydrology No.51, UNESCO, Paris, 11; and Nguyen Thanh Binh,Nguyen Thanh. 2009. Flood levels in Vietnam. Personal communication.UNU-EHS WISDOM Project.84 Pancelet 2009: 1785 Ibid.86 Zhang, H., P. Kelly, C. Locke, A. Winkels, and W. N. Adger. 2006. Migrationin a transitional economy: Beyond the planned and spontaneousdichotomy in Vietnam. Geoforum 37: 1066-1081.87 Dun, O. 2009. Linkages between flooding, migration and resettlement.Case study report on Vietnam for the Environmental Change and ForcedMigration Scenarios Project, 17. http://www.each-for.eu/documents/CSR_Vietnam_090212.pdf Pp.17.88 Ibid.89 Le, T., H. Nguyen, H. Nhan, E. Wolanski, T. Tran, and H. Shigeko. 2007.The combined impact on the flooding in Vietnam’s Mekong River delta oflocal man-made structures, sea level rise and dams upstream in the rivercatchment. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Sciences 71:110-116.90 People’s Committee of An Giang Province. 2006. Project: Removal ofCanal Houses to Secure Environmental Sanitation of An Giang Provincefrom now to 2020 (English translation). An Giang: People’s Committee ofAnGiang Province.91 Dun 2009. See note 87 above.92 Dasgupta, S., B. Laplante, C. Meisner, D. Wheeler, and J. Yan. 2007. Theimpact of sea level rise on developing countries: A comparative analysis.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136 (WPS4136), World Bank,Washington.2493 Jager 2009. See note 28 above.94 Ibid.95 Hegazi, A.,M. and I. H. El Bagouri. 2002. Arab Republic of Egypt NationalAction Plan for Combating Desertification (Provisional). Cairo: ArabRepublic of Egypt.96 Arab Center for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD). 2000.Regional Report on Desertification in the Arab World. Damascus.97 Editorial board. 2005. Egyptian National Action Program to CombatDesertification. Arab Republic of Egypt Ministry of Agriculture and LandReclamation, UNCCD, and Desert Research Center, Cairo. http://www.unccd.int/actionprogrammes/africa/national/2005/egypt-eng.pdf.98 Afifi, T. 2009. Case study report on Egypt for the Environmental Changeand Forced Migration Scenarios Project. http://www.each-for.eu/documents/CSR_Egypt_090130.pdf.99 Ibid, p. 25.100 Mimura, N., L. Nurse, R. F. McLean, J. Agard, L. Briguglio, P. Lefale, R.Payet and G. Sem. 2007. Small islands. In Parry, M. L., O. F. Canziani,J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, eds., Climate Change2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 689.101 Gemenne, F., and S. Shen. 2009. Case study report on Tuvalu and NewZealand for the Environmental Change and Forced Migration ScenariosProject. http://www.each-for.eu/documents/CSR_Tuvalu_090215.pdf.102 Ibid, p.15.103 Ibid, p.13.104 Ministry of Planning and National Development (Maldives). 2008.Analytical Report 2006. Population and Housing Census 2006. http://planning.gov.mv/en/images/stories/publications/analysiscd/index.html#.105 The sea wall was built after the 1987 floods, which were caused by tidalsurges.106 British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). 2005. Sea wall ‘saves Maldivescapital.’ BBC.co.uk, 10 January. http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/south_asia/4161491.stm.107 Mimura et al. 2007, 705. See note 100 above.108 Saunders, Lucy-Claire. 2008. Paradise lost: When climate change leavesmillions without a home. Mediaglobal.org, 22 December 2008. http://mediaglobal.org/article/2008-12-22/paradise-lost-when-climatechange-leaves-millions-without-a-home.109 Ibid.110 McCarthy, M. 2007. Earth’s natural defenses against climate change‘beginning to fail.’ The Independent, 18 May.111 Alexander, C. 2008. World may be heating quickly: Scientist. The SydneyMorning Herald, 7 May. http://news.smh.com.au/world-may-be-heatingquickly-scientist/20080507-2bul.html.112 McKibben. B. 2007. Remember this: 350 parts per million. WashingtonPost, 28 December.113 ScienceDaily. 2008. Greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane,rise sharply in 2007. 24 April. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080423181652.htm.114 It could be considered as an external dimension of vulnerability, definedby the exposure to hazards or risk just for being present at the placeand time of occurrence of the particular hazard. See Adamo, S. and deSherbinin, A. (forthcoming). The impact of climate change on the spatialdistribution of populations and migration. In UN. Population Division.Proceedings of the Expert Group Meeting on Population Distribution,Urbanization, Internal Migration and Development.New York: UnitedNations.115 See, for example, projections of precipitation minus evaporation to2040 using a 19 model ensemble mean, by Vecchi, G.A., R. Seager,and N. Naik, produced by Princeton University’s Geophysical FluidDynamics Laboratory. http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/science.shtml.116 Pfeffer et al. 2008 find that “a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions butonly if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits.”See Pfeffer, W., J. Harper, and S. O’Neel. 2008. Kinematic constraints onglacier contributions to 21st-century sea-level rise. Science, 321(5994):1340-1343.
Technical Annex: Data and MethodsFieldworkThe extent of human-induced environmental degradation has beendocumented in a wide range of publications. The most commonlydiscussed environmental change resulting from human activities isclimate change, but there are many other signs of environmentalchange, including soil fertility depletion, deforestation, anddesertification. At the same time, humans face massive social,political, and economic changes today as a result of globalizationand technological change.Although there is substantial information about environmentalchange, natural hazards, migration, and economic development,systematic empirically- based knowledge about the links betweenenvironmental change processes and migration remains scarce.To help fill this gap, the European Commission funded theEnvironmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Project(EACH-FOR) to explore the role environmental changes playin shaping migration decisions. This was done through thesystematic overview and analysis of relevant natural and humanmadeenvironment degradation processes, as well as the socioeconomicand demographic contexts in the regions studied inthe project. The project undertook fieldwork in twenty-three sitesaround the world.MappingThe maps in this report represent the integration, at scalesranging from continental to small islands, of geospatial datasetssuch as population (size, density, and distribution), hydrology(Asian river basins, highly populated river deltas), projectedsea level rise (1 and 2 meters), agriculture (rain-fed agriculturalland and areas in pasture), projected changes in runoff, andcyclones. These databases were compiled from different sourcesand integrated using GIS techniques. Calculations of populationsat risk were made using zonal statistics. More information aboutdata sources and methodologies used can be found below.This superimposing of populated areas and current and projectedenvironmental hazards seeks to provide an initial identification ofpopulations and livelihoods potentially at risk of climate changeimpacts. This first “layer” of vulnerability 114 could be consideredpart of the context that shapes migration decisions to a greateror lesser extent.Data setsA list of data sets utilized in map production is found below.One issue that needs to be addressed wherever climate changeprojections are employed is which models and scenarios to use,and what specific variable (e.g. temperature or precipitation) is ofgreatest interest. While recognizing that changing temperatureswill have wide-ranging ramifications for many tropical and subtropicalregions, especially where temperatures may exceedtolerances for specific crops, we felt that precipitation changeis likely to have greater impacts on livelihoods.Once that decision was made, additional choices presentedthemselves. In the maps presenting drying trends, we choseto use data on projected changes in runoff by Nohara et al(2006) published in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4),Working Group 2 Synthesis report. These data were producedusing an ensemble of climate models, and correspond broadlyto the pattern of changing precipitation minus evaporationfound in other ensemble modeling approaches. 115 Ensemblesare generally more reliable than single model runs, since theyaverage out the extremes. Runoff change was chosen ratherthan change in precipitation alone, or precipitation minusevaporation (P-E), because runoff represents the water that iseffectively available for a range of human purposes, includingcrop growth and irrigation, and also for aquatic ecosystems,which are important for freshwater fisheries. However, asstated, whether one uses runoff or P-E, the patterns arebroadly similar: (1) wet areas are getting wetter; (2) dry areasare getting drier; and (3) subtropical dry zones are expandingpoleward.In terms of sea level rise, the IPCC AR4 projected potentialeustatic (meaning produced by the melting glaciers ratherthan thermal expansion) sea level rise of 0.8–1m this century.However, recent research suggests that the upper bound for sealevel rise may be closer to 2m. 116 For this reason, we provide 1mand 2m bands for each delta area represented in section 4.3.The following provides details on the data sets used for the mapsin this report and, where appropriate, the methods for makingmap calculations:Map 1: Glacier melt and major irrigated agricultural systemsin AsiaThis map combines glacier data from Armstrong et al. (2009) withriver networks from ESRI (2008) and irrigated areas from FAO(2007) and FAO & IIASA (2006). Watershed boundaries (drainagebasins) are from USGS HydroSHEDS 2007 (Lehner et al. 2006).Urban extents, representing circa 1995 urban areas, are fromCIESIN (2009a).Areas under irrigation and population totals for the differentdrainage basins dependent on glacier runoff were derived bycompiling zonal statistics based on a grid of each drainage basinusing Spatial Analyst in ArcMap 9.3.Map 2: Mexico and Central America: Migration as a CopingStrategy for Drought and DisasterThis map combines runoff change data from Nohara et al (2006)that were used in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. Thepopulation density map is from CIESIN (2009b). The runoffdata are from Fekete et al (2000). The suitability of rain-fedagricultural land is from FAO (2007). Cyclone hazard frequency isfrom CHRR et al (2005).Map 3: West Africa: Pressure on Agricultural Livelihoodsand Creeping Onward MigrationThis map combines runoff change data from Nohara et al (2006)that were used in the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report. The gridrepresenting runoff change was “grown” using standard rasterbasedmethods (each new grid was assigned the maximum valueof adjacent grid cells) so that it extended to or beyond thecoastline, for better visualization. The population density mapis from CIESIN (2009b). The runoff data are from Fekete et al(2000). The suitability of rain-fed agricultural land is from FAO(2007). The data on the proportion of area in pasture land arefrom Ramankutty et al (2008). The pasture map represents areaswhere the proportion of pasture is 70 percent or higher.Maps 4, 5 and 6: Flooding and Sea Level Rise in DenselyPopulated Deltas: Ganges, Mekong, and NileThese maps combine the following data sets. Geographicrepresentation of the delta areas (delta masks) are from25
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