Marketing Management, Millenium Edition - epiheirimatikotita.gr

Past-Sales AnalysisSales forecasts can be developed on the basis of past sales. Time-series analysis consistsof breaking down past time series into four components (trend, cycle, seasonal, anderratic) and projecting these components into the future. Exponential smoothing consistsof projecting the next period’s sales by combining an average of past sales andthe most recent sales, giving more weight to the latter. Statistical demand analysis consistsof measuring the impact level of each of a set of causal factors (e.g., income, marketingexpenditures, price) on the sales level. Finally, econometric analysis consists ofbuilding sets of equations that describe a system and proceeding to fit the parametersstatistically.Market-Test MethodWhere buyers do not plan their purchases carefully or experts are not available or reliable,a direct market test is desirable. A direct market test is especially desirable inforecasting new-product sales or established product sales in a new distribution channelor territory.S U M M A R Y128AnalyzingMarketingOpportunities1. Three developments make the need for marketing information greater now thanat any time in the past: the rise of global marketing, the new emphasis on buyers’wants, and the trend toward nonprice competition.2. To carry out their analysis, planning, implementation, and control responsibilities,marketing managers need a marketing information system (MIS). The MIS’s role is toassess the managers’ information needs, develop the needed information, and distributethat information in a timely manner.3. An MIS has four components: (a) an internal records system, which includes informationon the order-to-payment cycle and sales reporting systems; (b) a marketingintelligence system, a set of procedures and sources used by managers toobtain everyday information about pertinent developments in the marketing environment;(c) a marketing research system that allows for the systematic design,collection, analysis, and reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketingsituation; and (d) a computerized marketing decision support system thathelps managers interpret relevant information and turn it into a basis for marketingaction.4. Companies can conduct their own marketing research or hire other companies todo it for them. Good marketing research is characterized by the scientific method,creativity, multiple research methods, accurate model building, cost–benefit analysis,healthy skepticism, and an ethical focus.5. The process consists of defining the problem and research objective, developingthe research plan, collecting the information, analyzing the information, and presentingthe findings to management. In conducting research, firms must decidewhether to collect their own data or use data that already exist. They must also decidewhich research approach (observational, focus-group, survey, behavioral data,or experimental) and which research instrument (questionnaire or mechanical instruments)to use. In addition, they must decide on a sampling plan and contactmethods.6. One major reason for undertaking marketing research is to discover market opportunities.Once the research is complete, the company must carefully evaluateits opportunities and decide which markets to enter. Once in the market, it mustprepare sales forecasts based on estimates of demand.7. There are two types of demand: market demand and company demand. To estimatecurrent demand, companies attempt to determine total market potential, areamarket potential, industry sales, and market share. To estimate future demand,companies survey buyers’ intentions, solicit their sales force’s input, gather expertopinions, or engage in market testing. Mathematical models, advanced statisticaltechniques, and computerized data collection procedures are essential to all typesof demand and sales forecasting.