A Rapid Assessment of Kili Island - Sea Grant College Program

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Figure 17. Generalized contouring of surveyed area of Kili, relative to the reef crest (MLLW).Future Vulnerability of KiliSea-Level RiseSea level has been rising in RMI at a rate of about 3.0 mm/yr, that’s about 1 inch every 8.5 years (Figure18). Sea-level rise will increase both the frequency and magnitude of flooding caused by high tides andstorms. There are a variety of scenarios as to the rate of sea-level rise. This project suggests adoptingthe Intergovernmental Panel for ClimateChange (IPCC) upper level scenario of 59cm by the year 2100 7,8 . Keep in mind thatscenarios are revised every few years asthe scientific understanding of sea-levelrise improves. Many planning authoritiesare opting for a more conservativeapproach and projecting the impacts of100 cm of sea-level rise by 2100. The RMIgovernment and KBE government shouldbe aware of the potential for the IPCC toadjust scenarios and should be prepared toadjust planning accordingly.Figure 18. Observed and projected relative sea-level change near the Marshall Islands. The observed sea level records are indicated indark blue (relative tide-gauge observations) and light blue (the satellite record since 1993). Reconstructed estimates of sea level nearthe Marshall Islands (since 1950) are shown in purple. The projections for the A1B (medium) emissions scenario (representing 90% ofthe range of models) are shown by the shaded green region from 1990 to 2100. The dashed lines are an estimate of 90% of the rangeof natural year- to-year variability in sea level. Taken from PCCSP report11
Sea Level Variability and TrendsFuture sea-level rise will cause an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flooding at Kili. Thisgenerally means flooding of the nature of the January 2011 event will happen more often and it will bemore severe. Future sea-level rise will likely flood larger areas of the island more regularly. However,there will be a lot of variability in when flooding will occur. The January 2011 event showed the impactof La Niña on elevating sea level. Likewise, during some years (usually El Niño years) the sea level willbe temporarily lower and the risk of flooding reduced, but not removed.How vulnerable is Kili to storms and sea-level rise?When examining the vulnerability of an island it is important to consider the factors which ultimatelydetermine the vulnerability. A formula to calculate or simply consider factors contributing to the islandvulnerability is given by:Vulnerability = (exposure + sensitivity) – adaptive capacityWhere the following factors are considered:Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity-To what extent an asset is exposed to a hazard. i.e., is an island exposed toinundation? How exposed? i.e., Kili vs Big Island of Hawai‘i.Does this exposure matter? i.e., an air conditioning unit is highly sensitive toflooding.How well can you respond to the impact? i.e., Majuro has a much higher adaptivecapacity to deal with inundation than Wotje as it has access to materials andtrained personnel required for an organized response and mitigation planning.This study largely examined the physical exposure of Kili to inundation hazards driven by storms andsea-level rise. A unique comparison to Kili is provided by Jabat Island, a similarly sized mid-oceanreef platform island. Table 1 provides a general comparison between the factors contributing to thevulnerability of Kili and Jabat Islands.Recommendations for ImprovedCommunity Hazard ResilienceThe inundation of Kili during January of 2011 was caused by a moderate energy swell event in unisonwith spring tides, which were superimposed over a temporary, regional rise in sea level as a result of LaNiña conditions as well as a long-term global rise of sea level. When combined these factors elevatedsea level and caused waves to breach the island ridge. As a result, a heavily modified swamp was floodedwith salt water, which ultimately inundated large areas of the island. Several key community hazardmitigation recommendations from the visit have been made for further review and discussion.• There is a need for increased awareness of coastal hazards and potential mitigation strategieswithin the Kili community. Strengthening the communities understanding of both climate andnon-climatic stressors on the Kili environment.12
Page 3 and 4: Executive SummaryKili is one of fiv
Page 5 and 6: Figure 2. Aerial photo of Kili, 194
Page 8 and 9: Between April 2009 and August2011 a
Page 10 and 11: Photographs were then loaded within
Page 12 and 13: Figure 15. Location of elevation me
Page 16: Table 1. A generalized comparison o
Page 19 and 20: ANNEX 2A Simple Plan for Inundation
Page 22 and 23: References1Measured using the edge

A Rapid Assessment of Kili Island - Sea Grant College Program

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