A Rapid Assessment of Kili Island - Sea Grant College Program

ANNEX 2A Simple Plan for Inundation Prediction, Warning, and ResponseConsultations with community suggest few people were aware of the immediate potential of inundationassociated with the January event. The lack of adequate warning or notification of the potential forinundation was a key concern raised during the October assessment. While there are many variableswhich determine the frequency and magnitude of inundation there are underlying conditions whichincrease the risk of inundation. This increased risk needs to be effectively communicated to the Kilicommunity in order for adequate preparations to be implemented to mitigate potential impacts. Thefollowing is a suggested course of action which could be modified for the KBE government and Kilicommunity, consider it the starting point for discussion rather than a implementable plan. The systemutilizes long range forecasts of sea level based on tidal predictions and ENSO outlooks, combined withwave forecasts issued by the National Weather Service (NWS). A simple scheme is proposed wherebydays are classified as yellow, orange or red based on the potential risk of inundation. The schemeproposes potential actions to be taken by the National Disaster Committee, KBE government and Kilicommunity based on the potential for inundation.Red days• Maximum tidal level exceeds that typically associated with tidal inundation.• An orange day coinciding with a predicted significant swell event as defined by NWS.• Any meterological or oceanographic warning issued by NWS or National Disaster Office.Orange days• Maximum tidal elevation is below the level associated with flooding. However, the dayfollowing or the day preceding red days should be classified orange to allow carefulmonitoring of ocean conditions.Yellow days• Maximum tide level is below that typically associated with a breach of the island ridgewhich separates the swamp from the beach. (determine value based on historic events).If this was to be undertaken in Majuro (see Figure 20) a water level below 2.00 m abovetide gauge zero would constitute a yellow day.Suggested actions by the National Disaster Office/NWS, KBE government and local community areoutlined in Table 2.16