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<strong>Bank</strong>ing / Annual Report Analysis<br />

India Research<br />

<strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

CMP: ` 104 Target Price: ` 152 Buy<br />

BSE Sensex 17,233<br />

NSE Nifty 5,235<br />

Scrip Details<br />

Equity ` 6,020mn<br />

Face Value ` 10/-<br />

Market Cap ` 62.6bn<br />

USD 1.1bn<br />

52 week High/Low ` 125 / 67<br />

Avg. Volume (no) 638,392<br />

BSE Code 532276<br />

NSE Symbol SYNDIBANK<br />

Bloomberg Code SNDB IN<br />

Reuters Code SBNK.BO<br />

Shareholding Pattern as on June’12(%)<br />

Promoter 66.17<br />

MF/<strong>Bank</strong>s/FIs 17.75<br />

FIIs 3.68<br />

Public / Others 12.40<br />

<strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> relative to <strong>Bank</strong> Nifty<br />

115<br />

110<br />

105<br />

100<br />

95<br />

90<br />

85<br />

80<br />

Jul-11<br />

Sep-11<br />

Financials<br />

Nov-11<br />

Jan-12<br />

Mar-12<br />

May-12<br />

Jul-12<br />

<strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> Nifty<br />

Followings are key observations in <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s financial<br />

performance:<br />

� Improvement in liability profile: In FY12, <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> recorded<br />

substantial improvement on deposit profile; whole-sale deposits & CDs<br />

proportion declined by 470bps to 21% from 26% a year back and core retail<br />

deposits increased by almost 430bps to 69%<br />

� Prudent & measured credit book expansion : In FY12, the bank grew its<br />

credit book slower than the industry at 15.8% <strong>com</strong>pared to 17.5% of the<br />

industry with taking higher amount collaterals. On maturity profile front, the<br />

bank’s credit portfolio average maturity remained almost same with 33% of<br />

credit book in less than 1 year maturity buckets. The bank reduced its<br />

concentration risk of credit portfolio & exposure reflecting into lesser<br />

concentration in top twenty loan accounts and borrowers<br />

� Rating of credit book: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s proportion of unrated credit book<br />

slightly increased to 53% from 51% a year back and share of unrated credit<br />

book (with more 100% risk weight) remained almost constant at 5.9%<br />

� Margin and assets’ risk weights: On margin front, the bank managed to<br />

maintain margin even in a difficult scenario mainly on the back of stability on<br />

low-cost deposits share with decrease in bulk deposit proportion on liability<br />

side and marginal increase in exposure to riskier assets. Also, higher<br />

proportion of investments diverted towards longer tenure papers aiding yield<br />

on the book. The bank’s RWAs/assets ratio increased to 53.6% from 51% a<br />

year back aiding asset yield. The bank’s margin improved by 4bps to 3.06%<br />

� Revamp of core fee In<strong>com</strong>e: Non-fund revenue stream was robust with<br />

strong core fee in<strong>com</strong>e at ` 5.5bn. The incumbent CMD believes that there<br />

is a scope to further strengthen fee in<strong>com</strong>e with existing infrastructure<br />

� Asset quality under control: In detailed classification of GNPA, proportion<br />

of sub-standard loans went up sharply to 61% from 44% in FY11. On the<br />

fresh restructuring 1front, the bank added ` 31.5bn. Major areas of loan<br />

restructuring were agriculture, MSME, CRE and large industries. Out of total<br />

loan restructured, ` 11bn came from Air India account alone<br />

� Steady expansion in foot-prints: The bank added 214 branches in FY12<br />

<strong>com</strong>pared to 186 in FY11 and even in lackluster scenario during FY12, the<br />

bank maintained its pace in customer base expansion which aided core<br />

deposits mobilisation<br />

Overall, we maintain our positive stance on the stock and estimate that the<br />

bank would report RoAA of ~0.8% and RoAE of 16-18% in FY13-14. We reiterate<br />

our stock rating to Buy with a price target of ` 152. At current price, it quotes at<br />

0.7x and 0.6x ABV FY13 and FY14 respectively; based on our target price, the<br />

stock would trade at 0.9x adjusted book value FY14. The stock is available at<br />

an attractive dividend yield of 4.6% (on FY13’s dividend).<br />

Year NII PPP NP NIM (%) BV (`) ABV (`) RoAA (%) RoAE (%) P/B (x) P/ABV (x) P/E (x)<br />

FY11 43,828 27,498 10,479 3.0 116 101 0.7 17.6 0.9 1.0 5.2<br />

FY12 50,850 33,468 13,134 3.1 133 115 0.8 17.9 0.8 0.9 4.8<br />

FY13E 57,746 37,926 16,652 3.0 167 147 0.8 18.4 0.6 0.7 3.8<br />

FY14E 66,791 42,807 17,807 3.0 190 169 0.8 16.6 0.5 0.6 3.5<br />

Figures in ` mn<br />

Sr. Analyst: Rakesh Kumar Associate: Hetal Shah<br />

Tel : +9122 4096 9750<br />

E-mail: rakesh@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong><br />

Tel : +9122 4096 9725<br />

E-mail: hetals@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong><br />

July 13, 2012


India Research<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

� Branch expansion: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> added 214 branches in FY12 <strong>com</strong>pared<br />

to 186 in FY11. In FY12, most of the branch addition took place in rural & semiurban<br />

areas towards fulfillment of RBI’s guidelines on financial inclusion. During<br />

the year, 68 branches were opened in under-banked areas and 44 branches<br />

were added in minority concentration districts. In FY12, the bank reached the<br />

financial inclusion target. Like-wise in FY11, out of 188 fresh branches additions,<br />

the bank opened 76 branches in under-banked areas and 36 branches in minority<br />

concentrated districts. In FY13, the bank’s management is planning to add<br />

another 300 branches reach at 3000 mark; <strong>Syndicate</strong> bank would also add<br />

almost 500 ATMs to take the total to 1750.<br />

Chart 1: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s Branch profile<br />

Source : Company, Dolat Research<br />

Branch network FY10 FY11 FY12<br />

Rural 666 803 873<br />

Semi-urban 552 589 672<br />

Urban 541 551 584<br />

Metro & Port Town 548 550 566<br />

Ultra Small - - 14<br />

Overseas 1 1 1<br />

Total 2,308 2,494 2,710<br />

% to Total FY10 FY11 FY12<br />

Rural 28.9 32.2 32.2<br />

Semi-urban 23.9 23.6 24.8<br />

Urban 23.4 22.1 21.5<br />

Metro & Port Town 23.7 22.1 20.9<br />

Ultra Small - - 0.5<br />

� Steady expansion of customer base: The bank’s customer base enlarged to<br />

28.4mn from 26.4mn a year back registering a growth of 7.6%. In FY11, the<br />

bank maintained similar pace of 7.7%. Even in lackluster scenario during FY12,<br />

the bank maintained its customer base expansion pace. The bank’s credit card<br />

base increased by 13% YoY to 80125.<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

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India Research<br />

Chart 2: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s Customer base<br />

Source : Company, Dolat Research<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

� Improvement in deposit franchise: During FY12, the bank recorded substantial<br />

improvement on deposit profile; whole-sale deposits & CDs proportion declined<br />

by 470bps to 21% from 26% a year back and core retail deposits increased by<br />

almost 430bps to 69%. The bank’s total whole-sale deposits came down by<br />

4.7% YoY to ` 335bn whereas total core deposits increased by 24% YoY to `<br />

1.1tn. The bank’s CASA deposit share drifted down by 130bps to 29.4% mainly<br />

due to tepid mobilization of saving deposits.<br />

Chart 3: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s CASA & Whole-sale Deposit share (%)<br />

Source : Company, Dolat Research<br />

The bank’s deposit concentration (deposits of twenty largest depositors) marginally<br />

increased to 14.8% from 14.6% a year back. Average maturity profile of also remained<br />

almost the same at 1.24 years with 54% of deposits in up to 1 year maturity<br />

buckets <strong>com</strong>pared to 52% of deposits in FY11.<br />

On the front of other liabilities, the bank did not raise any tier I or tier II capitals in<br />

FY12; other unsecured borrowings increased in-line with balance-sheet expansion<br />

pace. During the year, the bank raised equity capital of ` 3.3bn at 104 per share.<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

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India Research<br />

Chart 4: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s Capital Adequacy<br />

Source : Company, Dolat Research<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

� Change in headcount and employees <strong>com</strong>position: Over the period,<br />

proportion of officers has been increasing. Also, with CBS system in place and<br />

operational though not at optimum level, over a period of time going ahead,<br />

proportion of clerks & sub-staff should <strong>com</strong>e down. In FY12, total headcount<br />

came down by 5.6% to 26,904.<br />

Particulars FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12<br />

Officers 9,520 9,498 9,966 10,944 11,512 10,829<br />

Clerks 11,192 11,355 11,274 10,766 11,074 10,221<br />

Sub-staffs 3,648 3,803 3,828 3,859 3,702 5,854<br />

Part-time Sweepers 1,600 1,981 2,053 2,144 2,221 -<br />

Total 25,960 26,637 27,121 27,713 28,509 26,904<br />

Increase (%) 2.6 1.8 2.2 2.9 (5.6)<br />

� Credit <strong>com</strong>position likely to tilt in favor of retail, MSME and agriculture:<br />

In FY12, with respect to tenure of credit book, the bank’s credit <strong>com</strong>position<br />

increased in favor of term loans to 80% from 77% in FY11. In terms of security<br />

available for the credit book, proportion of secured loans increased to 67% from<br />

62%. Also, exposure to public sector entities came down but on sensitive<br />

exposure front, exposure to <strong>com</strong>mercial real estate (CRE) increased substantially<br />

to 4.4% from 2.5% in FY11. The increased exposure to CRE is backed by lease<br />

rentals.Essentially, in FY12, <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong> grew its credit book slower than<br />

the industry with taking higher amount collaterals.<br />

On maturity profile front, the bank’s credit portfolio average maturity remained<br />

almost same with 33% of credit book in upto 1 year maturity buckets as <strong>com</strong>pared<br />

to 32% in FY11. The bank’s cumulative domestic asset-liability mismatch (for<br />

maturity buckets up to 1 year) increased to 28% from 23% of total deposits in<br />

FY11. Shorter end of liabilities funded longer-term investment papers.<br />

On credit portfolio & exposure concentration issues, the bank de-risked its<br />

credit portfolio & exposure reflecting into lesser concentration in top twenty loan<br />

accounts and borrowers. Though, concentration of NPA jumped to 23.4% from<br />

8.0% in FY11. The sharp rise was mainly due to addition of two loan accounts<br />

in Q4 FY12.<br />

On credit book front, the bank’s key focus areas remain on retail banking<br />

(particularly Housing loans), MSME and Agriculture. In an effort to enhance<br />

advances yield, the bank would focus more on MSME, agriculture and some of<br />

the retail segments. More credit disbursement would be done at RO/branch<br />

level.<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

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India Research<br />

Credit Mix:<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

(` mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Gr. (FY11-12) Cagr (FY10-12)<br />

Priority Sector 273,640 327,130 366,110 413,830 13.0 12.5<br />

SME 68,650 110,060 132,440 147,360 11.3 15.7<br />

Micro & Small Enterprises 56,920 97,416 119,110 133,600 12.2 17.1<br />

Agriculture 107,690 131,350 147,460 174,090 18.1 15.1<br />

Domestic Retail 177,950 200,178 226,631 247,250 9.1 11.1<br />

Housing Loans 66,140 73,044 81,200 84,240 3.7 7.4<br />

Total Dom. Credit 732,031 815,570 959,763 1,089,872 13.6 15.6<br />

% to Total Dom. Credit FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12<br />

Priority Sector 37.4 40.1 38.1 38.0<br />

SME 9.4 13.5 13.8 13.5<br />

Micro & Small Enterprises 7.8 11.9 12.4 12.3<br />

Agriculture 14.7 16.1 15.4 16.0<br />

Domestic Retail 24.3 24.5 23.6 22.7<br />

Housing Loans 9.0 9.0 8.5 7.7<br />

� Investment portfolio <strong>com</strong>position changing in favor of G-Sec bonds: In<br />

FY12, the bank’s G-Sec investment share increased; SLR securities <strong>com</strong>position<br />

increased to 90% from 86.8% in FY11. Also, higher proportion of investments<br />

diverted towards longer tenure papers aiding yield on the book. Most of incremental<br />

investments were added in HTM category. On N-SLR book (accounts for 10% of<br />

total investment book) front, investments in unlisted securities, unrated securities<br />

& below investment securities have collectively went up to 5.9% (of total N-SLR<br />

investments) from 4.9% in FY11.<br />

Break-up of Investment book (INR mn) Mar-11 Mar-12<br />

HTM 277757 352661<br />

% to Net Investments 79.1 86.3<br />

AFS 73349 56194<br />

% to Net Investments 20.9 13.7<br />

HFT 0 1.2<br />

% to Net Investments 0.0 0.0<br />

Gross Investment 351106 408856<br />

Depreciation & Provision for NPI 430 705<br />

Net Investment 350676 408151<br />

� Effective use and more emphasis on SARFAESI: In FY12, the bank made<br />

effective use of SARFAESI by recovering ` 6.9bn against ` 2.7bn in previous<br />

year. Overall, the bank recorded total NPA recovery of ` 11.4bn <strong>com</strong>prising `<br />

8.4bn of recovery towards principal and ` 3.0bn towards uncharged interest and<br />

` 23mn towards written-off bad debts accounts.<br />

� Upward change in “salary increase/future cost” actuarial assumption:<br />

The bank revised its “salary increase/future cost” actuarial assumption to 5%<br />

per year from earlier 4% assumption. The revision also reflected into higher<br />

present value of defined benefit obligation of pension, gratuity and privilege leaves<br />

at ` 51.6bn from ` 48bn in previous year.<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

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India Research<br />

Chart 5: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s Asset Quality<br />

Source : Company, Dolat Research<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

� Higher incremental gross slippages and fresh restructuring: The bank<br />

recorded fresh slippages of ` 31.6bn <strong>com</strong>pared to ` 15.9bn; gross slippages o<br />

increased to 2.7% from 1.6% in previous year.<br />

Though, reduction also increased sharply containing rise in GNPA. Also, much<br />

higher credit cost of 1.2% <strong>com</strong>pared to 0.9% in FY11 and higher write offs<br />

further reduced NNPA. Provision coverage (including write-offs) improved to 80%<br />

from 77% a year back. Slippages from CBS-based automatic recognition of<br />

NPLs and slippages from restructured loan book were at ` 11bn and ` 8.8bn<br />

respectively. Close to 2/3 rd of total slippages came from these two events and<br />

total slippage from restructured loan book was almost 16%.<br />

In detailed classification of GNPA, proportion of sub-standard loans went up<br />

sharply, even if we take into account expected up-gradation of two chunky loan<br />

accounts (of ` 4.5bn), the share of sub-standard loans still looks higher. With<br />

aging of GNPAs, NPA provisions would go up in FY13. On sector-wise stressed<br />

loans, agriculture sector NPA increased to 2.9% from 2.0% a year back and<br />

industry NPA came down 1.2% from 2.3% in FY11.<br />

` Mn FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12<br />

Substandard 5899 9554 11327 19281<br />

Doubtful 1 5441 5684 8348 4014<br />

Doubtful 2 4291 4563 5333 6533<br />

Doubtful 3 149 102 162 889<br />

Loss Assets 165 166 821 1110<br />

Total NPAs 15945 20068 25990 31827<br />

% to Total NPAs FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12<br />

Substandard 37.0 47.6 43.6 60.6<br />

Doubtful 1 34.1 28.3 32.1 12.6<br />

Doubtful 2 26.9 22.7 20.5 20.5<br />

Doubtful 3 0.9 0.5 0.6 2.8<br />

Loss Assets 1.0 0.8 3.2 3.5<br />

On the fresh restructuring front, the bank added ` 31.5bn (against ` 40bn in<br />

FY11) and total reduction was ` 9.0bn. In FY12, sacrifice (NPV losses) on<br />

restructured loan book was ` 1.2bn <strong>com</strong>pared to 1.1bn in previous year. Major<br />

areas of loan restructuring were agriculture, MSME, CRE and large industries.<br />

Out of total loan restructured, ` 11bn came from Air India account.<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

6


India Research<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

Sector/industry wise details of loan restructuring in FY-12<br />

Category Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12<br />

Agriculture 11,500 11,580 13,150 15,840<br />

MSME 5110 5020 4770 11,680<br />

Housing loan 2400 2260 2380 2400<br />

Large Industries 10,240 10,060 10,160 9950<br />

Commercial Real Estate 7630 6950 6690 4410<br />

Personnel <strong>Bank</strong>ing Scheme 230 170 190 190<br />

Retail Trade 790 790 780 760<br />

Education 120 120 130 160<br />

All other advances (Whole sale trade,<br />

infrastructure, Govt. Sponsored,<br />

Consumer loans, NBFCs etc.) 7660 12,030 11,410 23,630<br />

Total 45,660 48,980 49,660 69,010<br />

` Mn Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12<br />

Outstanding at the beg. of the quarter 45280 45660 48980 49660<br />

Addition during the quarter 2410 4850 4430 20920<br />

Reduction during quarter 2030 1530 3750 1570<br />

Balance at the end of the quarter 45660 48980 49660 69010<br />

� Focus on fee in<strong>com</strong>e: The bank has planned to establish separate vertical at<br />

corporate Office and regional Offices to accelerate marketing efforts to augment<br />

fee based in<strong>com</strong>e. The incumbent CMD believes that there is a scope to further<br />

strengthen fee in<strong>com</strong>e with existing infrastructure. There is emphasis (in terms<br />

of increasing awareness of branch level employees) being put at branch level to<br />

revamp fee-based in<strong>com</strong>e. Total Forex turnover increased by 13% YoY to `4.9tn<br />

and in<strong>com</strong>e on foreign exchange transaction grew by 12.4% YoY. Recovery on<br />

written-off accounts increased by 27% YoY to ` 1.0bn. Core fee in<strong>com</strong>e (CXB)<br />

recorded growth of 25% YoY to ` 5.5bn. In<strong>com</strong>e on the bancassurance business<br />

in FY12 was moderate at ` 75mn <strong>com</strong>pared to ` 70mn in previous year. Overall,<br />

other in<strong>com</strong>e revenue stream was robust with strong core fee in<strong>com</strong>e.<br />

Chart 6: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s Core Fee In<strong>com</strong>e<br />

Source : Company, Dolat Research<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

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India Research<br />

Chart 7: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s margin, Risk-adjusted<br />

margins (%)<br />

Source : Company, Dolat Research<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

� Core interest in<strong>com</strong>e strengthen: The bank managed to maintain margin<br />

even in a difficult scenario mainly on the back of stability on low-cost deposits<br />

share with decrease in bulk deposit proportion on liability side and marginal<br />

increase in exposure to riskier assets (reflecting into sharper increase in credit<br />

risk). On liability side, the bank managed to contain rise in costs and on asset<br />

front, it improved yields with credit portfolio rebalancing in favor of term loans<br />

and high-yielding advances. The bank’s RWAs/assets ratio increased to 53.6%<br />

from 51% a year back. The bank’s margin improved by 4bps to 3.06%.<br />

Chart 8: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s cost of deposit and yields<br />

(%)<br />

� Rating & risk weight of credit book: <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s proportion of unrated<br />

credit book slightly increased to 53% from 51% a year back and share of unrated<br />

credit book (with more 100% risk weight) remained almost constant at 5.9%.<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

8


India Research<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

Valuation<br />

Overall, we maintain our positive stance on the stock and estimate that the bank<br />

would report RoAA of ~0.8% and RoAE of 16-18% in FY13-14. We reiterate our<br />

stock rating to Buy with a target price of ` 152. At current price, it quotes at 0.7x<br />

and 0.6x ABV FY13 and FY14 respectively; based on our target price, the stock<br />

would trade at 0.9x adjusted book value FY14. The stock is available at an attractive<br />

dividend yield of 4.6% (on FY13’s dividend).<br />

<strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong>’s DuPont’s Model FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E<br />

Total interest in<strong>com</strong>e earned 8.03 7.46 7.75 9.01 8.53 8.43<br />

Other in<strong>com</strong>e 0.77 0.87 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.59<br />

Commission, Exchange & Brokerage 0.23 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.34 0.31<br />

Profit on sale of investment 0.16 0.29 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.01<br />

Other fee in<strong>com</strong>e 0.38 0.31 0.30 0.26 0.25 0.27<br />

Total interest expenses (5.88) (5.43) (4.78) (6.01) (5.60) (5.54)<br />

NII 2.15 2.03 2.97 3.00 2.92 2.89<br />

Pay to / Prov for Employees (0.94) (0.99) (1.20) (1.12) (1.07) (1.08)<br />

Op.Exps & Admin Exps (0.57) (0.52) (0.52) (0.54) (0.55) (0.55)<br />

Total Oper. Exps. (1.51) (1.51) (1.72) (1.66) (1.61) (1.63)<br />

Provisions & Cont and Taxes (0.64) (0.79) (1.15) (1.20) (1.08) (1.08)<br />

Prov for NPAs (0.38) (0.39) (0.63) (0.83) (0.70) (0.64)<br />

Prov for in<strong>com</strong>e tax (0.09) (0.27) (0.16) (0.07) (0.16) (0.20)<br />

Other Provisions (0.17) (0.13) (0.36) (0.31) (0.22) (0.24)<br />

Net Profit (RoAA) 0.77 0.60 0.71 0.77 0.84 0.77<br />

RoAE 21.58 16.57 17.64 17.88 18.44 16.57<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

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India Research<br />

INCOME STATEMENT ` mn<br />

Particulars Mar11 Mar12 Mar13E Mar14E<br />

Net Interest In<strong>com</strong>e 43,828 50,850 57,746 66,791<br />

CXB 4,422 5,514 6,775 7,090<br />

Profits on sale of investments 352 888 400 300<br />

Profits on foreign exchange 979 1,166 1,310 1,511<br />

Other operating in<strong>com</strong>e 3,398 3,192 3,565 4,827<br />

Total other in<strong>com</strong>e 9,151 10,759 12,050 13,728<br />

Total In<strong>com</strong>e 52,979 61,609 69,796 80,519<br />

Salaries 17,733 18,915 21,100 25,064<br />

Other operating costs 7,748 9,226 10,770 12,648<br />

Total Overheads 25,481 28,141 31,870 37,712<br />

Profit before provisions 27,498 33,468 37,926 42,807<br />

Bad Debt Provisions 9,290 13,997 13,855 14,782<br />

Stnd. Asset Provision 246 2,628 2,546 3,465<br />

Investment Provisions 387 385 650 700<br />

Other provision 4,720 2,184 1,063 1,380<br />

Total provisions 14,644 19,195 18,114 20,327<br />

Profit before tax 12,854 14,273 19,812 22,480<br />

Tax 2,375 1,139 3,160 4,673<br />

Reported Net profit 10,479 13,134 16,652 17,807<br />

BALANCE SHEET<br />

Particulars Mar11 Mar12 Mar13E Mar14E<br />

Cash with RBI 104,431 88,086 100,512 119,157<br />

Cash at call 15,225 50,756 33,296 30,580<br />

Total Cash 119,657 138,843 133,808 149,737<br />

Govt. securities 303,025 365,005 413,049 476,020<br />

Other investments 47,651 43,145 67,241 77,492<br />

Total Investments 350,676 408,151 480,290 553,512<br />

Bills discounted 15,093 12,860 29,092 34,477<br />

Cash credit 229,677 235,229 320,017 379,249<br />

Term loans 823,050 988,113 1,105,513 1,310,132<br />

Total Credit 1,067,819 1,236,202 1,454,622 1,723,858<br />

Gross Fixed Assets 13,478 20,753 16,597 17,710<br />

Accumulated Depreciation 6,707 7,475 7,855 8,390<br />

Net Fixed Assets 6,770 13,278 8,742 9,320<br />

Capital work in progress 157 237 0 0<br />

Other Assets 20,309 27,970 48,093 66,537<br />

Total Assets 1,565,388 1,824,681 2,125,555 2,502,965<br />

Demand Deposits 107,388 122,214 134,047 158,213<br />

Savings Deposits 312,066 342,959 388,273 458,273<br />

Term Deposits 936,507 1,114,238 1,326,600 1,565,767<br />

Total Deposits 1,355,961 1,579,411 1,848,920 2,182,253<br />

Perpetual Debts (IPDI) 7,730 7,730 11,730 14,230<br />

Upper Tier II Capital 8,197 8,197 9,197 12,697<br />

Subordinate Debt 19,250 19,250 20,750 22,500<br />

Other Borrowings 60,099 70,722 80,520 97,883<br />

Total Borrowings 95,276 105,899 122,197 147,310<br />

Other liabilities 43,642 48,960 50,723 55,580<br />

Equity 5,733 6,020 6,020 6,020<br />

Reserves 64,776 84,392 97,696 111,802<br />

Total Equity 70,508 90,412 103,715 117,822<br />

Total Liab & Equity<br />

E-estimates<br />

1,565,388 1,824,681 2,125,555 2,502,965<br />

IMPORTANT RATIOS<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

Particulars Mar11 Mar12 Mar13E Mar14E<br />

DPS (`) 3.7 3.8 4.8 5.3<br />

Book Value (`) 116.1 133.5 166.6 190.4<br />

Adjusted Book Value (`) 101.5 115.4 147.5 169.3<br />

EPS (`) 20.0 21.8 27.7 29.6<br />

EPS Growth (%) 28.5 8.9 26.8 6.9<br />

Payout (%) 18.5 17.4 17.2 17.7<br />

Net interest margin (%) 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0<br />

Spread (%) 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6<br />

Cost-to-in<strong>com</strong>e (%) 48.1 45.7 45.7 46.8<br />

ROAA<br />

Net Interest In<strong>com</strong>e 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9<br />

Other In<strong>com</strong>e 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6<br />

Less Overheads (1.7) (1.7) (1.6) (1.6)<br />

Less Provisions (1.0) (1.1) (0.9) (0.9)<br />

Less Tax (0.2) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2)<br />

ROAA 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8<br />

ROAE 17.6 17.9 18.4 16.6<br />

Valuation<br />

Price Earnings (x) 5.2 4.8 3.8 3.5<br />

Price to Book Value (x) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5<br />

Price to Adjusted BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6<br />

Dividend Yield (%) 3.6 3.7 4.6 5.0<br />

Asset Quality<br />

Gross NPLs 25,990 31,827 36,910 42,529<br />

Restructured standard Loans 45,285 60,620 98,000 112,110<br />

Gross Impaired Loans 71,275 92,447 134,910 154,639<br />

Net NPLs 10,308 11,854 13,662 16,062<br />

Provision coverage ratio (%) 60.3 62.8 63.0 62.2<br />

Gross NPLs (%) 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4<br />

Net NPLs (%) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9<br />

Assumptions<br />

Yield on Advances (%) 9.3 10.7 10.2 10.0<br />

Yield on Investment (%) 6.5 7.2 6.8 6.8<br />

Cost of Deposits (%) 4.9 6.4 6.1 6.0<br />

Interest Inc. on Cash (%) 0.1 1.2 0.4 0.5<br />

CRAR (%) 13.0 12.2 11.4 10.8<br />

Growth in credit book (%) 18.1 15.8 17.7 18.5<br />

Growth in Deposits (%) 15.9 16.5 17.1 18.0<br />

Growth in Investments (%) 6.2 16.4 17.7 15.2<br />

Gross slippages ratio (%) 1.6 2.7 2.5 2.5<br />

Credit Cost (%)<br />

E-estimates<br />

0.9 1.2 1.0 0.9<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

10


India Research<br />

Intentionally Left Blank<br />

DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

July 13, 2012 <strong>Syndicate</strong> <strong>Bank</strong><br />

11


DOLAT CAPITAL<br />

BUY Upside above 20%<br />

ACCUMULATE Upside above 5% and up to 20%<br />

REDUCE Upside of upto 5% or downside of upto 15%<br />

SELL Downside of more than 15%<br />

Analyst Sector/Industry/Coverage E-mail Tel.+91-2-4096 9700<br />

Amit Khurana, CFA Director - Research amit@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969745<br />

Amit Purohit Consumer amitp@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969724<br />

Bhavin Shah Pharma & Agro Chem bhavin@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969731<br />

Mayur Milak Auto & Auto Ancillary mayurm@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969749<br />

Priyank Chandra Oil & Gas priyank@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969737<br />

Rahul Jain IT Services rahul@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969754<br />

Rakesh Kumar Financials rakesh@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969750<br />

Ram Modi Metals & Mining ram@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969756<br />

Nehal Shah Midcaps nehals@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969753<br />

Prachi Save Derivative Analyst prachi@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969733<br />

Associates Sector/Industry/Coverage E-mail Tel.+91-22-4096 9700<br />

Dhaval S. Shah Engineering & Capital Goods dhaval@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969726<br />

Hardick Bora Pharma & Agro Chem hardickb@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969748<br />

Hetal Shah Financials hetals@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969725<br />

Mahvash Ariyanfar Economy & Midcaps mahvash@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969736<br />

Pranav Joshi Financials pranavj@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969706<br />

Equity Sales/Dealing Designation E-mail Tel.+91-22-4096 9797<br />

Purvag Shah Principal purvag@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969747<br />

Janakiram Karra Director - Institutional Sales janakiram@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969712<br />

Vikram Babulkar Director - Institutional Sales vikram@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969746<br />

Kapil Yadav AVP - Institutional Sales kapil@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969735<br />

Parthiv Dalal AVP - Institutional Sales parthiv@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969705<br />

P. Sridhar Head Dealing - Equities sridhar@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969728<br />

Mihir Thaker Senior Sales Trader mihir@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969727<br />

Aadil R. Sethna Head of Derivatives aadil@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969708<br />

Chirag Makati Asst. Vice President - Derivatives chiragm@dolatcapital.<strong>com</strong> 91-22-40969703<br />

Dolat Dolat Dolat Dolat Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.<br />

20, Rajabahadur Mansion, 1st Floor, Ambalal Doshi Marg, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001<br />

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