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U.S. Department ofTransportationNORMAN Y. MINETASecretaryMARIA CINODeputy SecretaryResearch and InnovativeTechnology AdministrationERIC C. PETERSONDeputy AdministratorBureau of TransportationStatisticsRICK KOWALEWSKIDeputy DirectorWILLIAM J. CHANGAssociate Director forInformation SystemsMARY J. HUTZLERAssociate Director forStatistical ProgramsThe Journal of Transportation and Statistics releasesthree numbered issues a year and is published by theBureau of Transportation StatisticsResearch and Innovative Technology AdministrationU.S. Department of Transportation400 7th Street SW, Room 4117Washington, DC 20590USAjournal@bts.govSubscription informationTo receive a complimentary subscription:mail Product OrdersBureau of Transportation StatisticsResearch and Innovative Technology AdministrationU.S. Department of Transportation400 7th Street SW, Room 4117Washington, DC 20590USAphone 202.366.DATAinternet www.bts.dot.govInformation Serviceemail answers@bts.govphone 800.853.1351Cover and text designCover photoSusan JZ HoffmeyerGregg StansberyThe Secretary of Transportation has determined that thepublication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction ofthe public business required by law of this Department.ii
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION AND STATISTICSVolume 8 Number 12005ContentsLetter from the Deputy Administrator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vPapers in This IssueThe Dynamics of Aircraft Degradation and Mechanical FailureLeonard MacLean, Alex Richman, Stig Larsson, and Vincent Richman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1Air Traffic at Three Swiss Airports: Application of Stamp in Forecasting Future TrendsMiriam Scaglione and Andrew Mungall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13Improved Estimates of Ton-MilesScott M. Dennis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23Spatial and Temporal Transferability of Trip Generation Demand Models in IsraelAdrian V. Cotrus, Joseph N. Prashker, and Yoram Shiftan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37Governors Highway Safety Associations and Transportation Planning:Exploratory Factor Analysis and Structural Equation ModelingSudeshna Mitra, Simon Washington, Eric Dumbaugh, and Michael D. Meyer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57Vehicle Breakdown Duration ModelingWenqun Wang, Haibo Chen, and Margaret C. Bell . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75Using Generalized Estimating Equations to Account for Correlation in Route Choice ModelsMohamed Abdel-Aty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85Book Reviews . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103Data ReviewEmployment in the Airline IndustryReview of Bureau of Transportation Statistics data by Jennifer Brady. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107Guidelines for Manuscript Submission. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111Call for Papers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112iii
Page 1 and 2: Volume 8 Number 1, 2005ISSN 1094-88
Page 3: A PEER-REVIEWED JOURNALJOURNAL OF T
Page 9 and 10: The Dynamics of Aircraft Degradatio
Page 11 and 12: would show a corresponding increase
Page 13 and 14: FIGURE 2 Aircraft Degradation and R
Page 15 and 16: so that- r 2 1 ) . (15)This change
Page 17 and 18: β⎛⎜⎜⎜= ⎜⎜⎜⎜⎝β 1
Page 19: and the fleet management practices
Page 22 and 23: of passengers and cargo to the econ
Page 24 and 25: TABLE 3 Cycle Parameters and Final
Page 26 and 27: TABLE 4 Forecasts of Numbers of Pas
Page 28 and 29: FIGURE 4 Slope Components for the Z
Page 30 and 31: 2. LS: this kind of intervention ha
Page 32 and 33: CONCEPTTon-miles is the primary phy
Page 34 and 35: FIGURE 2 Air Freight, Express, and
Page 36 and 37: FIGURE 5 Railroad Ton-MilesTon-mile
Page 38 and 39: Transport Canada. 1990-2002. Transp
Page 40 and 41: 32 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION AND ST
Page 46 and 47: account for premature investments i
Page 48 and 49: zonal definitions. In Supernak et a
Page 50 and 51: TABLE 2 Differences Among the 1972,
Page 52 and 53: FIGURE 1 Research Sequence of Stage
Page 54 and 55:
TABLE 3 Regression Models by Metrop
Page 56 and 57:
TABLE 5 Tobit Models by Metropolita
Page 58 and 59:
Table 9 presents the predicted aver
Page 60 and 61:
TABLE 9 Aggregate Estimation Result
Page 62 and 63:
TABLE 11 Tobit Estimation of Nontra
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Fleet, C. and S. Robertson. 1968. T
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INTRODUCTIONThe Intermodal Surface
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SUPPLEMENTAL STATE-LEVEL DATAIn add
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METHODOLOGYAn exploratory factor an
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Thus, a relatively large p value an
Page 74 and 75:
FIGURE 1 Final Model Specifications
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CONCLUSIONSISTEA and the TEA-21 leg
Page 78 and 79:
Survey Question 2: Do your agency
Page 80 and 81:
Survey Question 11 (continued): Has
Page 82 and 83:
Survey Question 16: Every state has
Page 84 and 85:
Incidents have become one of the ma
Page 86 and 87:
FIGURE 1 Map of the M4 MotorwayA40A
Page 88 and 89:
TABLE 2 Variables in the Fuzzy Logi
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FIGURE 9 Result of the ANN ModelMod
Page 92 and 93:
Garib, A., A.E. Radwan, and H. Al-D
Page 94 and 95:
usually the case for studies that u
Page 96 and 97:
proportional to overlap length. Rou
Page 98 and 99:
Fx ( )Working Correlation Matrix in
Page 100 and 101:
that had a lower level of congestio
Page 102 and 103:
dependent variable takes on a value
Page 104 and 105:
TABLE 3 Modeling Results for the MG
Page 106 and 107:
REFERENCESAbdalla, M. 2003. Modelin
Page 108 and 109:
the relevant covariates including t
Page 111 and 112:
BOOK REVIEWSEconomic Impacts of Int
Page 113:
I found the second section dealing
Page 116 and 117:
TABLE 1 Airline Employees by Busine
Page 119 and 120:
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION AND STATI
Page 122:
U.S. Department of TransportationRe
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