EUROPEThe ripple effect of Greece’ssecession from the Eurozonemay combine with thefueling of external forcesto lead to a multi-lose situation inthe Eurozone. If a big upheaval takesplace in the Eurozone, the recoveryof the world economy will face evengreater uncertainties.The mode of “paying old debtswith new debts” is not sustainable, andGreece may be the first to default in a real term amongthe debt-stricken European countries.Recently, as Greek President Karolos Papouliashas failed in forming the cabinet and the radical leftistalliance is against joining in the unity government,central bank officials in the Eurozone have begun todiscuss how to deal with Greece’s potential secessionfrom the Eurozone for the first time. In an interviewwith Greek media, Weidman, the German centralbanker alleges: “if Greece secedes from the Eurozone,it will be faced with much severer consequences thanother countries of the Eurozone”.In case that Greece does secede from the Eurozone,for countries of the Eurozone there will behardly any real winner.First of all, both the political and economic situationsin Greece will be increasingly severe. Whetherrestarting its old national currency or employing a newcurrency after seceding from the Eurozone, Greek willinevitably suffer from a sharp currency depreciation.Consequently, debt service pressure of internationalborrowing will rise in no time, both public and privateeconomic sectors will face the threat of bankruptcy,welfare of domestic citizens can’t be guaranteed, andthe so-called left-wing’s political stunt of protectingthe interests of the people will be hobbled.Secondly, for European countries which shoulderdebt in intermediate level like Spain and Italy, Greece’ssecession from the Eurozone may mean a chain reaction.The international community, especially the U.S.hedge fund has long been planning to short the euro,and Greece’s secession may become its long-awaitedtiming for action. Countries like Spain and Italy thatare in precarious situation and rely on euro for shelteringwill be directly exposed to the threat of internationalshorting selling. As a result, the economic andpolitical conditions of European countries with debtproblems will plummet, though the Eurozone is notlikely to fall apart.Thirdly, core countries such as Germany andFrance with adequate immunity will also have theirinternational influences greatly reduced. For Germanyand France, even if the Eurozone collapses, all theyhave to do is to restart their national currencies, andthere will be not really much of a fatal injury in theireconomy. Relying on the geographical advantages,Germany and France can still maintain a certain influenceon their close neighbors,namely the South-Eastern Europe countries.However, seeing from amore fundamental point ofview, decline of the Eurozonereflects that Germanyand France’s great attemptto make the Europe “speakwith one voice” encountersgreat obstacles. Thereafter,synergy and cohesion of the Eurozone will be greatlyreduced. The European countries, having their owneconomic and political interests in mind are muchmore likely to ignore the EU and act alone, and it isvery difficult for Germany and France to find a reasonableexcuse to dominate other European countries.With the decline of the Eurozone, all the otherparties, the United States in particular will reinforcetheir influences in Europe; without Eurozone as the“amplifier”, Germany and France can hardly be onan equal footing with the United States, and they canneither continue to use the European Commission asa big stick to attack their competitors. The ripple effectof Greece’s secession from the Eurozone may combinewith the fueling of external forces to lead to a multilosesituation in the Eurozone.As for China, on the one hand, it needs to reassureits trading partners in the Eurozone, because asthe largest trading partner of China, EU’s chaos ineconomy and politics will make China’s declining exportsworse still. On the recent Canton Fair, a certaindegree of decline has taken place in the number ofinstitutional and individual participants from the EU,as well as the trading volume. In addition, if a big upheavaltakes place in the Eurozone, the recovery of theworld economy will face even greater uncertainties.One the other hand, China also needs the powerof the Eurozone to contend with America, Japan andother forces. Now it is the most optimal timing forChina to step up its negotiation with the EU; if theEurozone lifts its control over its high-tech productexports to China and admits China’s market economystatus, China is able to greatly enhance its initiativein the negotiations with the United States and Japan.Moreover, China can also take this opportunity toreinforce its “going out” to the Europe, and improvedomestic industrial structure through management,technology and service update.From another perspective, the contentions withinthe Eurozone can only be regarded as a political gamingbecause Greece’s secession from the Eurozone willlead to a multi-lose situation; currently, it’s not wise tocome to a conclusion on Greece’s secession from theEurozone.(Author: Researcher in the Gold ResearchCenter of Bank of Communications)Multi-Lose Eurozone if Greece SecedesBy Lu Zhiming57
Regional Trade & InvestmentEUROPEGerman Companies Confident withChinese Market amid ChallengesBy Zhu ZijunGerman companies are confidentwith the growing Chinesemarket and are aimingto further expand theirbusiness operations locally, according toa recent report by Euro Asia Consulting(EAC) and the German Chamberof Commerce in China (GCC).The further expected growth inChina is fueled by an increased demandfrom Chinese customers. 70 percentof the German companies interviewedexpect a growing demand, either dueto the Renminbi appreciation or overallgrowing economy and increasing wealth,said the study based on 30 Germancompanies doing business in China.However, they also realize thatdomestic competition will increase significantly,mainly due to a better accessto foreign markets and technologiesand improved domestic cost structures.Domestic companies have gainedin number and size and have also beenable to significantly improve their productquality in the past.“Local companies are getting betterand better (often through trial anderror) and also more innovative. Theyhave managed to greatly improve theirquality level already,” said a companyrepresentative of the chemical industry.The Renminbi appreciation forcesChinese enterprises to become morecompetitive in an international comparison.“Made in China” can no longeronly be competitive based on costadvantages due to rising prices abroadcaused by the strengthening Renminbi.Local companies can also benefitfrom the Renminbi appreciation bygetting cheaper access to foreign technologyas well as potential acquisitiontargets and international markets.58Investments of Chinese companiesabroad will increase significantly toget more presence in and access to internationalmarkets as well as to acquiremore technology and know-how.“Local competitors have lookedat a number of different technologiesabroad and have applied them to theirown processes afterwards,” said a companyrepresentative of the electricalindustry.Apart from the domestic competition,the foreign competition is alsoexpected to increase in China. Theinterviewed company representativesexpect growing foreign investments inthe Chinese market. Many also see themarket saturated to a certain extent already,said the report.As such, the companies involvedin the study agreed that they have tobecome both, more efficient and innovativein the future to stay competitive.Being highly localized, manyGerman companies in China have adjustedtheir China strategies to the localmarket and do therefore barely see anymeasures to be taken due to the past,present and future Renminbi appreciation.Due to the growing market inChina however, many see the need tonot only focus on the high-end marketsegments anymore, but rather move towardsa broader mid-end market.Most companies talked to in thesurvey are also strongly focusing onfurther increasing their market sharein China. They all see a huge growthpotential of the Chinese market, wantto be a part of it and further profit fromsuch development.In order to realize such goals, anumber of strategies measures havebeen introduced by the companiesincluded in the survey. Such strategicmeasures include a variety of differentattributes, covering aspects of localadaption, process improvements andexpansion.However, many enterprises talkedto in the course of the study realizedthat in the past they have not alwaysworked on constant improvement oftheir China strategy. For many years,the operations in China grew simplybased on the significant economicgrowth in China. With rising operationalcosts described earlier however,those companies have in the past 2 – 3years again focused on China as theirmajor growth engine, the report said.“We have been in this market formore than 10 years already, but didn’treally focus on actively growing untilthe last 3 years. Now we have a realstrategy and are trying to achieve anannual growth of about 20 per cent,”said a company representative of themachinery industry:However German companies arestill confident of themselves with theiridentified specific advantages, such ashigh quality, service & reliability, highbrand image, technological know-howand innovation. Many German companiesinvolved in this study still seethemselves ahead of local competitorsby at least 2 years and up to 10 yearsdepending on the industry.“China will gradually move awayfrom its image of being a low-cost/low-wage country, and will increasinglydevelop towards a country focusing onR&D and innovation. Hence, over thelong-term, China will catch up, for nowhowever, made in Germany still wins,”said a company representative of theautomotive industry.