J.J. <strong>Armesto</strong> <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>. / Land Use Policy 27 (2010) 148–160 157as evidenced by the shift in veg<strong>et</strong>ation from closed to open coverand the expansion of weeds, d<strong>et</strong>ected in pollen records from GreatBritain, Europe and North America during this period (Niinem<strong>et</strong>sand Saarse, 2007; Williams, 2008; Coombes <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2009). A similarshift in veg<strong>et</strong>ation from closed to open conditions in China in thepast 2000 years is coincident with the evidence of increased soilerosion (Dearing <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2008).The Spanish conquest brought about the miners rush in the newworld during the 18th and 19th centuries. This may have representedthe following major land use transition in southern SouthAmerica since the ons<strong>et</strong> of agriculture, resulting in massive clearingof woodlands, as a consequence of the nearly uncontested miners’rights over the land. Large-sc<strong>al</strong>e lumber extraction for meltingores, tog<strong>et</strong>her with the massive introduction of cattle and goats,led to the devastation of woody veg<strong>et</strong>ation over much of centr<strong>al</strong>Chile (Bahre, 1979; Castro-Lobos, 2002). Similar and nearly simultaneousgold rushes in Austr<strong>al</strong>ia and North America (Aronson <strong>et</strong><strong>al</strong>., 1998) may have had similar impacts on land cover, throughexpansion of agriculture, livestock grazing and displacement ofindigenous populations from their lands. B<strong>et</strong>ween 1850 and 1870,the first extensive cutting of the Sierra Nevada forests in the USwas driven by the need of lumber for mining operations (Litmanand Nakamura, 2007). In Chile, the vast destruction of veg<strong>et</strong>ationrecorded in this historic<strong>al</strong> period led to pioneering environment<strong>al</strong>regulation efforts. Such regulations s<strong>et</strong> the bases for gradu<strong>al</strong>lyimproving resource use practices during the 20th century.The independence and instauration of the Chilean Republicperiod did not change the declining trends of forest cover, as deforestationby logging and fire extended from centr<strong>al</strong> to southern Chile.The “golden age” of timber exploitation dominated at the end ofthe 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, intensifiedby the use of sawmills, railway transportation, and governmentincentives to European and Chilean s<strong>et</strong>tlers in the Lake District andfurther south. This logging rush led to the decline of most commerci<strong>al</strong>stocks by the second h<strong>al</strong>f of the 20th century (Fig. 4). Similarlarge magnitudes of forest devastation by logging occurred in theNew England region of North America at the end of the 19th century,with extraction of massive volumes of timber (Fuller <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2004),ending around 1920 due to the depl<strong>et</strong>ion of commerci<strong>al</strong> stands. Inthe North American State of Indiana, clearing of forests for agricultureand timber extraction reduced forest cover from 85% of theland in the early 19th century to about 6% by 1920 (Evans and Kelley,2008). In the Sierra Nevada, steam engines and railway increasedthe efficiency of logging in the late 1800s leading to vast deforestationby the early 20th century (Litman and Nakamura, 2007). Suchprocesses of deforestation seem to have been replicated later by th<strong>et</strong>rends in timber extraction observed in southern South America inthe late 1800s and the first h<strong>al</strong>f of the 20th century, with sever<strong>al</strong>par<strong>al</strong>lel drivers and outcomes.S<strong>et</strong>tlers of the frontier of the new Chilean republic broughtabout wide-ranging forest fires (Rozzi <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2000), as ownershipof the land was gained by clearing forests. Such incentives operatedthroughout the Americas in the 19th century (Siebert, 2003).German immigrants, invited by Chilean minister Pérez-Ros<strong>al</strong>es,burned large expanses of evergreen forest in Chile’s Lake District(39 ◦ S–42 ◦ S) in the late 1800s. Many tree species that survivedthe glaci<strong>al</strong> period in the lowlands were extirpated. Testimoniesfrom that period are the remnant stumps of F. cupressoides – thelongest-lived tree species of the southern hemisphere, with someindividu<strong>al</strong>s known to be 3600 years old (Lara and Vill<strong>al</strong>ba, 1993) –which are still found today b<strong>et</strong>ween V<strong>al</strong>divia and Puerto Montt.Following the same pattern, s<strong>et</strong>tlers of Aysen Province (45 ◦ S),south of Chiloé Island, burned about 300,000 ha of Patagonianforests b<strong>et</strong>ween 1920s and 1950s, in one of the greatest devastationsin Chilean environment<strong>al</strong> history (Otero, 2006). The area hasremained largely deforested until the present due to the limitingconditions for tree establishment. Few improvements on environment<strong>al</strong>regulation were enforced in the early Republican periodbecause of the need to s<strong>et</strong>tle the independent territories, a patternwhich was repeated across the Americas (Siebert, 2003).Chilean industri<strong>al</strong> forestry developed in the second h<strong>al</strong>f of the20th century based on the spread of fast-growing exotic tree plantations.During this period, postindustri<strong>al</strong> soci<strong>et</strong>ies in Europe andNorth America stimulated the development of extensive plantationforestry in third-world nations (Brechin and Kempton, 1994),because stronger environment<strong>al</strong> regulations and greater publicappreciation of ecologic<strong>al</strong> benefits of forests limited the extent andrates of logging in the developed world. In Chile, short-rotation treeplantations started on previously cleared land, but soon expandedonto areas of second growth native forests (Lara and Veblen, 1993;Donoso and Lara, 1996; <strong>Armesto</strong> <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2001a). A similar proliferationof plantations occurred throughout Latin America. Intenselymanaged plantations of P. radiata and Euc<strong>al</strong>yptus species presentlyoccupy 12.5 million hectares in the Latin American and Caribbeanregion as a whole and are expected to keep expanding in the comingdecade (FAO, 2009). The economic<strong>al</strong>ly ‘successful’ Chilean modelof forestry development, based on large-sc<strong>al</strong>e pine and euc<strong>al</strong>yptplantations, has been replicated across the region without an an<strong>al</strong>ysisof its soci<strong>al</strong> and ecologic<strong>al</strong> impacts (Gwynne, 1993; Lara andVeblen, 1993). Developing countries became rapidly the hotspotsof plantation forestry. Such rapid industri<strong>al</strong> growth was driven bytheir need to fulfill the demands of foreign mark<strong>et</strong>s, repay extern<strong>al</strong>debt (Siebert, 2003), and me<strong>et</strong> nation<strong>al</strong> development go<strong>al</strong>sdefined purely on economic terms. In the case of Chile, doublingthe nation<strong>al</strong> per capita income in the next 20 years is an <strong>al</strong>readyestablished go<strong>al</strong> (Consejo Nacion<strong>al</strong> para la Comp<strong>et</strong>itividad, Chile,2008) that will be the main driver of land transformation in thedecades to come.In synthesis, forest cover change over the last millenniaresponded to variable climate and soci<strong>al</strong> drivers. Climate-relatedforcing and loc<strong>al</strong>ized and transient human impacts during the earlyHolocene were replaced glob<strong>al</strong>ly by persistent and massive humandrivenland transformation, associated for sever<strong>al</strong> centuries withEuropean s<strong>et</strong>tlement of new territories and unsustainable exploitationpractices. In the late 20th century, increasing deforestationand loss of native forest in South America and other developingnations became linked to free-mark<strong>et</strong> economy and postindustri<strong>al</strong>improvement of environment<strong>al</strong> regulation in developed nations(Siebert, 2003; Mather <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2006). Technology and glob<strong>al</strong> mark<strong>et</strong>sgreatly impacted loc<strong>al</strong> economies, homogenized landscapes, andendangered both biologic<strong>al</strong> and cultur<strong>al</strong> diversity across the Americas.In our opinion, to slow down deforestation trends nation<strong>al</strong>development go<strong>al</strong>s will need to be redefined, abandoning purelymacro-economic targ<strong>et</strong>s, to integrate rather than exclude the visionof loc<strong>al</strong> economies, taking into account the extern<strong>al</strong>ities associatedwith current land use models, and eliminating <strong>al</strong>l subsidiesto unsustainable resource use (Table 2).Land use policies for the 21st centuryTable 2 suggests that environment<strong>al</strong> policies born from imminentthreats to public good may promote human behavior andregulations that reduce the extern<strong>al</strong>ities of land use. Future landpolicy decisions should incorporate soci<strong>al</strong> v<strong>al</strong>ues and ecologic<strong>al</strong>factors that are presently absent from predominantly economicreasoning. New land development policies should define soci<strong>al</strong>lyacceptable targ<strong>et</strong>s considering non-instrument<strong>al</strong> v<strong>al</strong>ues, differentcultur<strong>al</strong> relationships b<strong>et</strong>ween people and the land, the intrinsiclink b<strong>et</strong>ween loc<strong>al</strong> cultures and biologic<strong>al</strong> diversity, the protec-
158 J.J. <strong>Armesto</strong> <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>. / Land Use Policy 27 (2010) 148–160tion of loc<strong>al</strong> economies, and <strong>et</strong>hic<strong>al</strong> concerns about the soci<strong>al</strong>and environment<strong>al</strong> consequences of free-mark<strong>et</strong> economy (Siebert,2003; Primack <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2001; Rozzi <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2008a). Particularly positivedevelopments regarding land use in the postindustri<strong>al</strong> age arelarge internation<strong>al</strong> investments on private conservation (Table 2).Such investments might become significant drivers of land coverchange in Latin America and other developing countries in thenext decades, supporting the preservation of glob<strong>al</strong> biodiversity.However, to be successful, internation<strong>al</strong> initiatives should make aconscious effort to link their agendas to the go<strong>al</strong>s of loc<strong>al</strong> residents,scientists, policy-making institutions, and conservation practitioners(Rodríguez <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2007).During the past 300 years forest cover was controlled primarilyby human activities, and hence it seems reasonable to argu<strong>et</strong>hat policy changes, and socio-economic drivers will have strongeffects in future land cover transitions. Currently heavily impactedlandscapes are predominantly the product of recent industri<strong>al</strong>development facilitated by perverse government subsidies, excessiveprivate rights on the land, and weak environment<strong>al</strong> regulationby the States. To modify these drivers key politic<strong>al</strong> changes will benecessary in developing countries. Nation<strong>al</strong> land use policies forthe future must go beyond s<strong>et</strong>ting aside land for preservation, atthe same time disregarding the extern<strong>al</strong>ities of current land useoutside parks. Future policy and conservation actions should shiftto deliberately abating threats (Wilson <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2007) and directingpublic subsidies to sustainable ecosystem management of nonprotectedland, integrating humans (<strong>Armesto</strong> <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 1998; Brown <strong>et</strong><strong>al</strong>., 2003). Improving ecosystem management of productive landscapesis a critic<strong>al</strong> priority given that an increasing amount ofland will be under pressure in developing countries in the comingdecades. Governments must reorient their land use policiesaccordingly. Substanti<strong>al</strong> investment is needed to generate accuratedatabases for land use planning, which integrate economicneeds, tradition<strong>al</strong> land–people interactions, and ecologic<strong>al</strong> knowledge.Lack of planning is illustrated by the growing conflict b<strong>et</strong>weenconservation of biodiversity and production in south-centr<strong>al</strong> Chile,where new crops, vineyard and forestry expansion endanger thelast remnant habitats where floristic and faun<strong>al</strong> richness are concentrated(Fig. 2). In many areas, conservation and production aimsbroadly overlap, presenting a ch<strong>al</strong>lenge for innovative science andpolicy, as well as for designing and implementing new economicactivities based on sustainable uses of the native biota (Rozzi <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>.,2003). Ecologists and other scientists can make v<strong>al</strong>uable contributionto tourism, one of the fastest growing industries in Chile, bydesigning novel themes and activities that enhance public appreciationand conservation of the beauty and singularity of Chileanwildlife and ecosystems (Rozzi <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2006, 2008b).Planning future land use is even more necessary because ofthe anticipated effects of glob<strong>al</strong> climate change (CONAMA, 2006).In centr<strong>al</strong> Chile, the frequency of droughts increased significantlyover the last two centuries (LeQuesne <strong>et</strong> <strong>al</strong>., 2006). Such climatechangescenario c<strong>al</strong>ls for policies promoting (i) the diversificationof region<strong>al</strong> land uses, using a broader range of forestry and cropspecies to buffer the effects of extreme climate, (ii) the protectionof biocultur<strong>al</strong> diversity and ecosystem management of productiveland, and (iii) applying subsidies to the management and recoveryof diverse veg<strong>et</strong>ation cover, especi<strong>al</strong>ly on mountain slopes, asan insurance against expected climatic extremes. A pressing taskof governments will be to adapt the glob<strong>al</strong>ly dominant economicmodel to these changing scenarios.AcknowledgementsWork funded by FONDAP-Fondecyt grant 1501-0001 to CASEB,Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, by Millennium ScientificInitiative (Chile) grant P05-002 and Fondecyt PFB-23 to the Instituteof Ecology and Biodiversity-Chile, and by Reforlan Project ofINCO-DC, European Union, Framework 6. We thank María Uriarteand Tom Rudel for encouragement and two anonymous referees forv<strong>al</strong>uable comments on the manuscript. This is a contribution to theresearch programs of Senda Darwin Biologic<strong>al</strong> Station, Chiloé, andOmora Ethnobotanic Park, Cape Horn Biosphere Reserve.ReferencesAbarzúa, A.M., Villagrán, C., Moreno, P.I., 2004. Deglaci<strong>al</strong> and postglaci<strong>al</strong> climatehistory in east-centr<strong>al</strong> Isla Grande de Chiloé, southern Chile (43 ◦ S). Quat. Res.62, 49–59.Abarzúa, A.M., Moreno, P.I., 2008. Changing fire regimes in the temperate rainforestregion of southern Chile over the last 16.000 yr. Quat. Res. 69, 62–71.Abarzúa, A.M. 2009. Respuestas ambient<strong>al</strong>es a cambios climáticos y cultur<strong>al</strong>es enla Región de la Araucanía, Chile. Doctor<strong>al</strong> Thesis. Universidad Austr<strong>al</strong> de Chile,Facultad de Ciencias Forest<strong>al</strong>es, V<strong>al</strong>divia, Chile.Achard, F., Eva, H.D., Stibig, H.J., Mayaux, P., G<strong>al</strong>lego, J., M<strong>al</strong>ingreau, T., M<strong>al</strong>ingreau,J.P., 2002. D<strong>et</strong>ermination of deforestation rates of the world’s humid tropic<strong>al</strong>forests. Science 297, 999–1002.Aronson, J., del Pozo, A., Ov<strong>al</strong>le, A., Avendano, J., Lavin, A., Etienne, M., 1998.Land use changes and conflicts in centr<strong>al</strong> Chile. Ecologic<strong>al</strong> studies 136,155–168.Aravena, J.C., Carmona, M.R., Pérez, C.A., <strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., 2002. Changes in tree speciesrichness, stand structure, and soil properties in a succession<strong>al</strong> chronosequencein northern Chiloé Island, Chile. Rev. Chilena Hist. Nat. 75, 339–360.<strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., Donoso, C., Villagrán, C., 1994. Desde la era glaci<strong>al</strong> a la industri<strong>al</strong>: Lahistoria del bosque templado chileno. Amb. Des. (Chile) 10, 64–71.<strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., Villagrán, C., Aravena, J.C., Pérez, C., Smith-Ramírez, C., Cortés, M., Hedin,L.O., 1995. Conifer forests of the Chilean coast<strong>al</strong> range. In: Hill, R.S., Enright, N.(Eds.), Ecology of the Southern Conifers. Melbourne University Press, Melbourne,pp. 156–170.<strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., Villagrán, C., Arroyo, M.T.K., 1996a. Ecología de los Bosques Nativos deChile. Editori<strong>al</strong> Universitaria, Santiago, pp. 405–421.<strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., Arroyo, M.T.K., Peñ<strong>al</strong>oza, A., 1996b. Condiciones para la sustentabilidadecológica del manejo de bosques y el proyecto “Río Cóndor”. An. Inst. Patagonia(Chile), ser. Cs. Nat. 24, 29–39.<strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., Rozzi, R., Smith-Ramírez, C., Arroyo, M.T.K., 1998. Conservation targ<strong>et</strong>sin South American temperate forests. Science 282, 1271–1272.<strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., Rozzi, R., Caspersen, J., 2001a. Temperate forests of North and SouthAmerica. In: Chapin, F.S., S<strong>al</strong>a, O.E., Huber-Sannw<strong>al</strong>d, E. (Eds.), Glob<strong>al</strong> Biodiversityin a Changing Environment. Scenarios for the 21st Century. Springer, New York,pp. 223–249.<strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., Smith-Ramírez, C., Rozzi, R., 2001b. Conservation strategies for biodiversityand indigenous people in Chilean forest ecosystems. J. Roy<strong>al</strong> Soc. N. Z. 31,865–877.<strong>Armesto</strong>, J.J., Bustamante-Sanchez, M.E., Diaz, M.F., Gonz<strong>al</strong>es, M.E., Holz, A.,Nuñez-Avila, M.C., Smith-Ramirez, C., 2009. Fire disturbance regimes, ecosystemrecovery and restoration strategies in Mediterranean and temperateregions of Chile. In: Cerda, A., Robuchaud, P.R. (Eds.), Fire Effects on Soilsand Restoration Strategies. Science Publishers, Enfield, New Hampshire,pp. 537–567.Arroyo, M.K., Donoso, C., Murua, R., Pisano, E., Schlatter, R.P., Serey, I.A., 1996. Towardan Ecologic<strong>al</strong>ly Sustainable Forestry Project. Concepts An<strong>al</strong>ysis and Recommendations.Universidad de Chile, Santiago.Arroyo, M.T.K., Rozzi, R., Simon<strong>et</strong>ti, J.A., Marqu<strong>et</strong>, P.A., S<strong>al</strong>laberry, M., 1999. Centr<strong>al</strong>Chile. In: Mittermeier, R.A., Myers, N., Mittermeier, C.G. (Eds.), Hotspots.Earth’s Biologic<strong>al</strong>ly Richest and Most Endangered Terrestri<strong>al</strong> Ecoregions. CEMEX,Mexico City, pp. 161–171.Aschmann, H., 1991. Human impact on the biota of Mediterranean-climate regionsof Chile and C<strong>al</strong>ifornia. In: Groves, R.H., Di Castri, F. (Eds.), Biogeography ofMediterranean Invasions. Cambridge University Press, pp. 33–42.Bahre, C.J., 1979. Destruction of the Natur<strong>al</strong> Veg<strong>et</strong>ation of North-centr<strong>al</strong> Chile. Universityof C<strong>al</strong>ifornia Press, Berkeley, C<strong>al</strong>ifornia.Brechin, S.R., Kempton, W., 1994. Glob<strong>al</strong> environment<strong>al</strong>ism: a ch<strong>al</strong>lenge to the postmateri<strong>al</strong>ismthesis? Soc. Sci. Quart. 75, 245–269.Brown, J.H., Curtin, C.G., Braithwaite, R.W., 2003. Management of the semi-natur<strong>al</strong>matrix. In: Bradshaw, G.A., Marqu<strong>et</strong>, P.A. (Eds.), How Landscapes Change. HumanDisturbance and Ecosystem Fragmentation in the Americas. Springer, Berlin, pp.327–343.Camus, P., 2006. Ambiente, bosques y gestión forest<strong>al</strong> en Chile, 1541–2005. LOMEdiciones, Santiago, Chile.Castro-Lobos, E., 2002. Requiem por el bosque nativo. Imprenta S<strong>al</strong>esianos, Santiago,Chile.Centro de Estudios para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), 2005. Ev<strong>al</strong>uaciones deldesempeño ambient<strong>al</strong>-Chile. OCDE-Naciones Unidas.Cisternas, M., Araneda, A., Martínez, P., Pérez, S., 2001. Effects of historic<strong>al</strong> land use onsediment yield from a lacustrine watershed in Centr<strong>al</strong> Chile. Earth Surf. Process.Landforms 26, 63–76.Claude, M., 1997. Una vez más la miseria: ¿es Chile un país sustentable? LOM Ediciones,Santiago, Chile.