jari at age 19 - Philip M. Fearnside - Inpa

INI'ERCIEN::IA 13 (.1) : 12-24 (.1988) •JARI AT AGE 19:LESSONS FOR BRAZIL'S SIL VICULTURALPLANS AT CARAJASPHILIP M. FEARNSIDEIntroduction: Jari and CarajasJari, a 1.6 million ha estateon the Jari Riveron the northern side ofBrazil's Amazon River (Figure 1), takeson new significance with the announcementof plans for mammoth silviculturalplantations in the Grande Carajiis programarea in Eastern Amazl\nia. Initiationof mining at Carajiis, site of theworld's largest high-grade iron ore deposit,provides the impetus for the GrandeCarajas Program to finance developmentin a 900,000 km 2 area in the statesof Para, Maranhao and Goiiis (Fearnside,1986a). How J ari is faring 19 yearsafter silvicultural planting began in 1968is important because far larger silviculturalschemes would be needed to meetcharcoal demand of pig-iron smeltersplanned for Carajiis. J ari is famous asAma:zOnia's largest silvicultural plantation.Interpreting its significancerequires an understanding of thearray of other economic undertakings atJari: an irrigated rice plantation, akaolin (china-clay) mine, a water buffaloherd in flooded grassland (varzea)areas, a modest cattle ranching operationin the unflooded uplands, and asawmill.In January 1982 Jari'soriginal owner, D. K. Ludwig of UniverseTankships Corp., sold a controlling interestin the estate to a consortium ofBrazilian firms now numbering 22. Thenew Jari (made up of three firms:Companhia Florestal Monte Dourado,Companhia Agro-Pecmiria Sao Raimundo,and Caulim da Ama:zOnia) isheaded by the Brazilian mining magnateAugusto Trajano de Azevedo Antunes.The new J ari has made great strides toreduce financial losses and was able toclaim an operating profit for the firsttime in 1985/86. Reports describing Jari"out of the red" are widely known inBrazil having appeared in Veja (8 January1986), the country's largest weeklynewsmagazine. Newsweek ( 11 August1986) has also reported "the unmakingof a fiasco" at Jari. Unfortunately, theimpression that large-scale silvicultureis now a viable activity in Ama:zOnia ismisleading. Reasons include the "operatingprofit" not reflecting the cost of servicingJari's debt, the operation havingbeen sold to its current owners at a fractionof its original cost, and the unusualcircumstance of a highly profitablekaolin mine compensating for losses inthe silviculture sector.The present paper isbased largely on information obtainedduring a recent return to Jari ( 10-12April 1986). Jari has changed in a varietyof ways since previous visits(Fearnside and Rankin, 1980, 1982,1985). Developments there give an ideaof the complexity and uncertainty of silviculturaloperations on the scale contemplatedunder the Grande CarajiisProgram. They also indicate changes,both good and bad, in the outlook forsustainability of the plantations at Jariitself. Jari's vast size makes the securityof its future an important question forthe region.Changes Since "Jari Revisited"(Fearnside and Rankin, 1985)A) Commercial Plantation SpeciesSince 1983, the shareof the estate's plantation area occupiedby Gmelina has declined in favor ofEucalyptus and Pinus (Figure 2), andthe number of Eucalyptus species hasincreased. In addition to E. deglupta andE. urophylla, the estate's commercialstands now include E. grandis, E. urograndis,and some E. pellita.Gmelina arboreaJari's managers havebeen forced to further reduce the rotationtime for the estate's premier species,Gmelina arborea. Gmelina was originallyto be harvested on a 6 year cycle, but by1983 the cycle had to be shortened to 5years to avoid losses to the fungus Ceratocystisfimbriata (Fearnside and Ran-Dr. Philip M. Fearnside, an ecologist, received his Ph.D. in Biological Sciences from theUniversity of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S.A. in 1978. He is specially interested in the estimation of carryingcapacity for human agricultural populations, and his work bas been directed at his problem in the Brazilian Amazon since1973. He is presently a Research Professor at the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisa da Amaz6nia (INPA, and a Research Associateof the Chicago Academy of Sciences. His address: INPA, Caixa Postal 478, 69,011 Manaus-Amaz6nias, Brazil.12 0378-1844/88/01-012-13 $ 3.00/0 JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 N9 1 IRlfR[IfR[IA

kin, 1985: 121). Jari now harvests itsGmelina at the young age of 3-4 yearsto avoid the fungus, which has becomemore severe. In the case of Gmelinagrown from stump sprouts, or coppices,early cutting is also wise due to weakgrowth after the fourth year. Shortenedrotations imply substantial increases inproduction costs: planting, weeding andharvesting operations have to be doneregardless of rotation length.The Ceratocystis fungusattacks coppiced Gmelina more severelythan Gmelina planted as seeds or seedlings.Since coppiced Gmelina growsfaster than trees planted from seed (inthe first 4 years), J ari's managers hopethat sufficiently resistant stock can bedeveloped to allow use of the coppices.Coppiced Gmelina would also be advantageouson the more steeply-sloping sitesto minimize erosion between crops.Breeding continues in ayet unsuccessful effort to develop linesof Gmelina resistant to Ceratocystis. Jari'spast successes in improving Gmelinagrowth form are being transferred to theplantations in the Gmelina that is notallowed to grow back as coppices. Thelimited size of the present seed orchardhas created a shortage of improved seedstock. A 70 ha area in a commercialstand is now being thinned for conversionto an additional source of seed.Gmelina is being innoculatedwith Cerawcyszis fungus insome parts of the commercial plantationsin an effort to select resistantstock. Experiments are also underwayin which infected trees are cut and leftin the plantations (rather than being removed)in order to see if this cheapermeasure would be sufficient to controlthe fungus.A new fungus has appearedat J ari, attacking 100 ha ofGmelina in October and November 1985.The as yet unidentified fungus causedleaves to fall off the trees, but the treessurvived and the leaves have since grownback.Applying fertilizers tocommercial Gmelina plantations, begunin 1982 (Fearnside and Rankin, 1985:123), has been discontinued. The cost ofbalancing nutrient removals will eventuallyhave to be paid if production is tobe sustained.Bulldozing to removestumps, known as "intensive site preparations,"is being done at a rate of 3000-4000 ha/ year, which is as fast as Jari'scurrent capabilities allow. At this rate itwould take 25-33 years to destump the approximately1 00,000 ha area deforestedso far. Jari's managers do not plan todestump the steeply-sloping areas, wherethe erosion hazard is greatest. However,the staff fear that increasing costof manual labor will eventually makeunmechanized use of the steeply-slopingareas uneconomic.J ari's silviculture staffacknowledge that they will not be ableto plant more than a very few cycles ofGmelina on the steeply-sloping sites dueto erosion. If management of the resprouts(coppices) proves impracticaldue to the Ceratocystis fungus, then thesesites will either have to be abandonedor converted to a perennial crop (oilpalm, etc.) or to a long-cycle rotationof hardwood species. Tests with perennialcrops (cacao) and planted hardwoods(teak) were discontinued underthe previous administration when theyproved uneconomic (Fearnside and Rankin,1980).Jari already has abandonedGmelina stands totaling 793 ha(226 ha planted from seed and 567 haresprouted as coppices) . Abandonmentis the likely fate of an area of approximately1500 ha in the Pacanarf sectorlocated on "patio" soil, a very poorplinthosol (apparently Block 69-76).The staff believe that some of the abandonedGmelina stands that were cut andthen left unmanaged may yet produce atleast a little useful wood, since the millcan accept very thin logs.Pinus caribaeaCarribean pine (Pinuscaribaea) is viewed with increasingenthusiasm by Jari's managers for anexpanded role in the future. Growth ofPinus caribaea, now being planted onslightly better soils than before, has beengood, in some cases with yields as highas those of Eucalyptus. Jari's managersreport that good growth has been a­chieved on some (unvisited) sites withpoor soil quality. One of these sites ison a sandy soil in its second rotation.Pinus caribaea normallyhas slow growth in the first 3 years,after which the rate increases. Pinus hasproduced up to 14.5 m tons/ha/year inyoung plantations on the best plateausoils, but only around 8 m tons/ha/yearin the areas to be harvested. Low yieldsare blamed on lack of adequate weedingduring the transition phase. The best1973 area (Block 43-73/86) produced23 m tons/ha/year when harvested atthe age of 13 yea~.Attack of the fungusCylindrocladius deslupario in Pinus firstbecame a worry in 1984 when Eucalyptusurograndis (a susceptible species)was introduced on a commercial scale atJari. The fungus is increasing steadily inthe E. urograndis stands but is remainingat a stable level in Pinus. When thi~fungus attacks a tree the needles dry upbut the tree is not killed.Fires have caused noserious damage since 1983, despite dryweather. Fire is an inherent hazard inplantations of Pinus and has caused significantdamage at Jari in the past(Fearnside and Rankin, 1980, 1985). Asa precaution, J ari is now leaving widerfirebreaks of native forest between plantationblocks.The staff say that theproblem of fires spreading into theplantations from slash-and-burn fieldsin squatter claims has diminished. Thecompany has established a "Rural SettlementNucleus" (NAR) to resettle squattersand has assigned three social assistantsto the resettlement sites. Theplantation staff state that the squattershave been accepting relocation and thatburning in the community fields in theresettlement area is done after informingJ ari staff so that precautions can betaken. I did not visit any of the resettlementsites. It is unclear how many ofthe 1500-2500 squatter families presentin 1983 have accepted resettlement."Foxtailing" (the tendencyto long branchless apical shoots) isstill a problem in Jari's Pinus caribaea.Genetic material was selected in ca. 1978from 50 of the best trees, but the progenyof these trees (being raised in Moro doSol in the state of Minas Gerais) havenot yet had sufficient time to produceseed for commercial plantations.The need to keep thepulp mill supplied with chips has obligedJ ari to harvest Pinus at the age of 9years. The quality of pine pulp is highestat an age of 11 years, as the fiber lengthincreases at a rate of about 5% per yearin the 9-11 year age interval. Long fibersgive resistance to tearing. The decisionto harvest Jari's pine at 9 years ratherthan waiting longer therefore carries theopportunity cost of foregoing two or moreyears of growth with minimal expensesfor weeding and other maintenance workand results in some sacrifice of productquality.J ari's planning departmentclassified 728 ha of Pinus standsas "abandoned" as of February 1986. Inaddition, an area of approximately 3000ha where Pinus has grown poorly is being11\JfR(Ifi\WI JAN -FEB 1988, VOL. 13 N'? 113

TABLE IPLANTATION AREAS AT 1ARI lalGmelina GmelinaYear of from from Pinusplanting seed coppices caribaeaEuca-Eucalyptus Eucalyptus Eucalyptus lyptusdeglupta urophylla urograndis pellitaage of 3-4 years so that the flow of chipsto the mill can be maintained. 1ari managersalso point to the advantage ofreplacing E. deglupta stands with improvedvarieties of better Eucalyptusspecies. 1ari's October-December dry periodhas a greater impact on the droughtsensitiveE. deglupta than on other Eucalyptusspecies. E. deglupta also has theadvantage of being resistant to the Cylindrocladiusdeslupario fungus, but otherfactors make phasing out E. deglupta alogical decision since the disease doesnot presently inflict severe damage.Eucalyptus deglupta at1ari is plagued by the presence of polyphenolsin the wood. These non-saponifiableresiduals cause the core of thelower part of the trunk to become dark,readily apparent in the piled wood awaitingchipping. Some trunks, even thoughlight in color when cut into cross sectionsfor sampling, turn dark after a fewhours indicating the presence of polyphenols.Were they not removed polyphenolswould stain the pulp, loweringits market price. The US$6/ m ton extracost of removing polyphenols from E.deglupta will maintain the firm's reputationfor top quality pulp until E. urophyl-EucalyptusCammercarnal-Native Experi- cia!dulensis species mentul total1S70 0 0 01971 0 0 01972 0 0 01973 0 0 1481974 0 0 2701975 0 0 101976 34 0 2381977 0 0 7271978 0 0 4,5951979 0 0 4,8241980 12 0 7321981 0 786 5931982 0 365 1,2341983 1,002 5,996 3,4481984 1,005 2,100 6,7921985 2,536 3,391 4,5121986 0 I b) 0 0 lc)Total 4,589 12,638 28,123(a) Areas in hectares as of February 24, 1986.(b) 4500 ha scheduled for planting in 1986.(c) 7300 ha scheduled for planting in 1986.(d) 460 ha scheduled for planting in 1986.(e) 18~0 ha scheduled for planting in 19860 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 00 0 0 0263 0 0 01,940 0 0 07,461 ' 166 0 04,807 2,757 0 640 7,392 142 00 3,127 849 00 0 (d) 0 (e) 014,471 13,442 991 640 0 14 00 0 3 00 0 56 00 0 19 1480 0 0 2700 0 23 100 0 12 2720 0 19 7270 0 49 4,5950 0 19 4,8240 0 63 1,0070 0 55 3,4852 0 27 11,8190 27 14 22,8780 130 101 14,0030 0 92 10,4390 0 0 02 157 566 74.477converted to pasture following harvestof the pine in 1986 (Block 85-78). Silviculturalstaff do not know why this firstcyclestand grew slowly but suggest aspossible causes soil factors and competitionfrom pasture grass initially interplantedwith the pine. Pinus caribaeaareas interplanted with cattle pasturewhen the pine trees were in their thirdthrough fifth year of growth have anadditional weed problem from the remainsof' the pasture when the areas areused for a second cycle of pine. 1 ari'smanagers state that the conversion topasture will be made because of the existinginfrastructure (corrals and fences)at that site, not due to poor growth ofthe pine trees. The Pinus in the areascheduled for conversion to pasture grewat only about half the rate of trees onbetter sites. 1 ari's managers state clearlythat planting pasture in former plantationareas is not contemplated as a sinkfor exhausted soils.Eucalyptus deglupta1 ari has not plantedEucalyptus deglupta since 1983 and isnow harvesting this species at the earlyIa, which has no phenols, comes on linein 1988.1 ari maintains a stockof E. deglupta germplasm selected forlow polyphenol content. This leaves openthe option of returning to E. degluptashould fungal or other problems becomesevere in alternative species.Pulp quality is lowerfrom Eucalyptus grown on poor soils.This, combined with advantage of increasedgrowth rate, may explain why allEucalyptus species are fertilized at 1 ari.No other species is fertilized in commercialplantations at the estate.Eucalyptus enters intoconflict with Gmelina for the optimaltime of year for harvesting. Gmelina isbest harvested in the dry season becausethe steeply sloping clay soils often plantedto this species have a higher potential forerosion and because machinery is difficultto use in these hilly areas duringthe rainy period. E. deglupta is also bestharvested in the dry season due to thelower content of "extractibles" (impurities)that have to be removed from thepulp if harvested at this time. Gmelinaalso has more impurities in the rainyseason, although the beige-colored im-14JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 N'-' 1 IR1fR[IfRWI

TABLE IIROTATIONS AND YIELDS OF SILVICULTURAL SPECIES AT JARIWeightharvested BarkRotation with bark (% drySpecies (years) (m tons/ha) weight)Gmelina arborea 4 45-50 20Eucalyptus deglupta 4 60-70 10Eucalyptus urophy/la 4 66-80.5 20Pinus caribaea 9 120-130 24-25TABLE IllWOOD GROWTH BALANCE AT JARIWood yieldArea (m tonslhalSpecies (ha) year) (a)Gmelina arborea 17,227 9.5Pinus caribaea 28,123 5.25Eucalyptus deglupta 14,471 14.625E. urophylla, E. urograndis& E. pel/ita 14.499 14.65Other commercial &experimental plantations 725 14.65 (c)TOTAL 75,200 9.92(a)I b)(c)Midpoints of ranges in Table II.Guess (50% of E. deglupta value).Assumed equal to E. urophy/la value.CALCULATION OF SHORTFALLMill requirement = 3000-3500 m tons/day of chips(midpoint = 3250 m tonslday)Annual requirement (allowing for 2 week shutdown for repairs)351 days x 3250 = 1,140,750 m tons of chips (dry weight)Annual shortfall = 1,140,750 - 951,435 = 189,315 m tons of chipsNative woodsupplement(% of mix)504020 (b)20 (b)Shortfall from plantation sources = 189,315 x (1 - 0.156) = 159,782 m tonsAdditional plantation area needed (at present configuration and yields)159,782 1 9.92 m tonslhalyr average yield = 16,107 haExpansion needed as percentage of present plantation area =16,107 ha 1 75,200 ha = 21.4% increasepurities in Gmelina cause less problemsthan do the black ones in E. deglupta.The density of E. degluptaat Jari is lower than that of Eucalyptusin Brazil's Central-South Region.To avoid the lower quality pulp thatwould result from using its E. degluptain pure form, J ari has developed a mixof native species that includes 40% "capitarf(Tabebuia insignis, BIGNONIACEAE).Wood yield(m tons/hajyear)9.0-10.013.5-15.7513.2-16.15.0-5.5Total wood(plantation &native)(m tons/year)172,270147,646352,730265,51313,276951,435The supplement of wood from nativeforests also significantly reduces the costof supplying the mill's requirements forchips.Jari had 1847 ha ofabandoned E. deglupta as of February1986. These stands had apparently beenplanted on inappropriate sites; no planshave been made for conversion of theareas to other uses.Eucalyptus urophyllaThe Cylindrocladius fungusattacks E. urophylla, but trees arenot killed and growth reduction is apparentlynot great. E. urophylla suffersless attack than does E. urograndis. Currentlythere is more Cylindrocladius onthe Amapii side of the Jari River thanon the Para side; some of the staff ascribethe difference to heavier clay soil on theAmapii side.A bacterial disease causedby Pseudomonus solonacearum has appearedin E. urophylla, mostly in youngtrees. The bacteria attack the roots ofthe trees; the leaves turn yellow and thetree dies. The technical staff firstobserved symptoms in 1984. Since thattime the disease has spread but has notreached alarming levels.A lepodopteran larvaattacked E. urophylla in 1985, but damagewas reportedly not serious. A microhymenopteranattacked part of one block(Block 35) in 1985, but has not increasedsince. Neither of the insects hasyet been identified.E. UrograndisE. urograndis is a hybridof E. urophylla males and E. grandisfemales produced by interbreeding inopen plantations. Since the crossfertilizationis not done under strictly controlledconditions, the "E. urograndis" standscontain a scattering of individuals of theparent species in addition to the hybrids.E. urograndis is themost susceptible to the Cylindrocladiusdeslupario fungus of the major commercialEucalyptus species at Jari. Theeffects are worse in the young trees. Theattack is worse in the rainy season. Thefungus slows the growth rate of the treeswithout killing them.Eucalyptus cancre (thefungus Diaportha cubensis) is the Achilles'sheel of E. grandis. Cancre attack isnot evident in the hybrid at Jari.E. pellitaJari has E. pellita on asmall scale: 64 ha were planted in 1983(in parcels spread throughout the estate) ,but Jari's managers are now postponingfull commercial-scale planting until theysee the effects of the Cylindrocladiusfungus. In one 12 ha plot of E. pellita16% of the trees were attacked in thefirst year, and some trees died. Nevertheless,in 1986 the experimental parcelsin the estate were augmented by an additional200 ha.ll\7fR[/ffi[lfl JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 N9 115

B) Experimental Plantation SpeciesJari's ability to weatherfuture biological problems will be largelydetermined by the availability of alternativesilvicultural species. Adequatetesting of potential species, carried outat the site, is the best means of minimizingthe risk of an inappropriate choice.The following species are under testing:E. grandis: Jari installeda 14 ha experimental planting of E.,grandis from a location in Australiabelieved to be similar to J ari. Trees fromthis procedence are thought to offer agood chance of resisting the cancre thatoften attacks plantations of this species.Finding alternative Eucalyptus species isa sufficiently high priority at J ari that14 ha of one-year-old commercial pineplantation were sacrificed to install theexperiment in 1985.E. camaldulensis: Althoughthis species is sometimes used forpulp (United States, NAS 1980: 126) theonly potential use for it at Jari would befor firewood. Despite enthusiasm amongthe research staff under Ludwig and goodgrowth in experimental plantations(Fearnside and Rankin, 1982), thespecies is no longer under considerationfor commercial plantation due to poorpulping characteristics.E. tornelliana: This speciesgrows well at Jari, quickly shadingout the undergrowth. However, it is nota good pulping species and only can beused for firewood.E. brassiana: Growthsince testing began in 1984 has not beengood.E. pillularis: A test plotof this species planted in 1985 is tooyoung to be evaluated.Pinus oocarpa: Thisspecies has poorer growth than P. caribaeain the first two years but thencatches up and grows faster. P. oocarpamust be maintained with more thoroughweeding than P. caribaea until it reachesa height of two meters (in approximatelytwo years). P. caribaea can surviveeven if left in a heavily weed-infestedstand with only the tips of the treesshowing. P. oocarpa often starts itsgrowth lying down or in other ways thatproduce poor form. It also has morebranches and side sprouts near theground. The staff consider P. oocarpa tobe more susceptible to the Cylindrocladiusfungus than is P. caribaea. It alsohas high variability in the growth amongindividual trees - not a good characteristicfor plantations, but one that allowsrapid genetic selection. P. oocarpa basSourceTABLE IVSUPPLEMENTARY WOOD SOURCES AT JARI (1985/86)Deforestation for plantationsEMBRAPA experimentsCapitari (Tabebuia insignis)Purchase of Pinus caribaea chipsTOTAL (103 m tons)PERCENT OF TOTAL PULPWOODNote(a)(b)(c)(d)(e)Aproximateweight (103m tons/year)26.250.548478188.79(a) Approximately 3000 ha felled for plantations in 1985. Average wet weight biomass oflogs = 350m tons;ha (Feamside and Rankin, 1985: 125), or approximately 175 m tons/hadry weight. The dry weight pulped per hectare felled is approximately 8.75 m tons, since5% of the species arc used for pulp; these species are assumed to represent the samepercentage of harvested biomass. This is consistent with the 10% of biomass used forpulping in 1983 (Fearnside and Rankin, 1985: 125) when twice the present number of specieswere used for pulpin~:.(b) total amount harvested = 18 x 103 m3; average density = 0.6; assume 5% used as innote (a).(c) 4 month Eucalyptus run ( = 120 days) x 700 ~ tons capitari/day.(d) 390 x 103 m tons chip demand (From Table V) x 20% supplied from purchases (1985;86value).(e) 1,140,750 m tons for operation at full capacity (see Table III).the advantage of very little foxtailing ascompared to P. caribaea. The species isconsidered a potential option for commercialplanting should a change be desirable,but J ari has no immediate plansfor such a change.Anthocephalus chinensis:This species, which had been growingwell in an experimental stand on fairlygood soils (Fearnside and Rankin, 1980),died mysteriously in 1984 at an age ofapproximately six years. No diseasesymptoms, insect attack, or other problemswere evident.Casuarina: Testing ofthis Asian legume was enthusiasticallyinitiated under the previous managementin about 1979. The species is only usabfefor firewood. Experiments are not continuing."Para-Para" (Jacarandacopaia): This native species has goodgrowth but requires relatively fertilesoil. Many but not all trees are attackedby Hysipyla shootborers (pit mothlarvae) (Fearnside and Rankin, 1980).Small-scale experiments continue."Mungubeira" ( Bombaxmunguba): Experiments that were initiatedshortly before the end of Ludwig'stenure have not been pursued. Mungubeirais a native of the Amaz:Onianvtirzea and grows well there.17%"Taxi Preto" (Triplarisfilipensis): A 1 ha plot of this nativespecies was planted in 1985. The youngtrees suffered some damage by grasshoppersand ants.To summarize the statusof the search for new species, both exoticand native, Jari has a number of speciesunder testing, a few of which have givenreasonably positive results at the site. Nospecies is currently attractive enough tosuggest any likely changes in the choicesfor commercial plantations over the nextfew years, but some are sufficiently welladapted that they could be called uponshould biological problems arise that arehighly damaging to Pinus caribaea or thecurrent Eucalyptus species. No such safeguardexists in the case of J ari's hallmarkspecies: Gmelina arborea. No nativespecies are under serious considerationfor commercial planting.C) Silvicultural ManagementOne casualty of the costcuttingmeasures during Jari's financialsqueeze has been the recycling of some ofthe pulp mill's residuals to the plantations.In the long term the outflow ofnutrients through biomass harvesting,soil erosion and other pathways must be16JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 NQ 1 ll\7fR(Ifl\(ltl

alanced by inputs. The practice initiatedin 1983 of returning some of the nutrientsremoved, although small in scale,was an important sign of recognition ofthis limitation.Leaf cutter ant (Atta)control is now more effective than itwas under the previous management.Mirex baits are still the most importantcomponent: J ari now uses 50-60 m tonsper year of Mirex (as compared to 100-120 m tons/year before 1983): TheMirex is applied to a larger area thanpreviously, but the area has a lower infestationof the ants. Mirex is appliedto all plantations, whether they are to beharvested that year or not. Baits are alsoplaced in a 100 m swath in the forestaround all of the plantations. Mirex isput out in the dry season, and is mosteffective just after burning when thereis nothing else for the ants to carry awayto feed the fungal gardens in their nests.Leaf cutter ant controlin the rainy season relied on the liquidinsecticide Arbinex. From 1983 to 1986J ari used 10 thousand liters per year ofthe poison; new Brazilian environmentalregulations now prohibit its use. Methylbromide gas, which was pumped into theleaf cutter ant nests as a part of theAtta control program during Ludwig'stenure, has since been discontinued asoverly expensive.Burning, a necessarypart of the site preparation process forplantation establishment, failed over a totalof 3000 ha 1985. Due to the onsetof the rains, burns failed in a 1500 haarea that had been felled in Felipe(Amapa). Native forest wood was removedfrom 1200 ha before the rainsprecluded further work; secondary forestgrowing up on the site will be cut andburned for plantation establishment in1987. Two areas in Para did not burneither. Heavy rains preventing burningin some years severely affects cattleranchers and small farmers throughoutAmaz.Onia (Fearnside, 1986b, and) Jari'sfailure to burn a substantial portion ofits clearing in 1985 will save money inthe short term since the expense of plantingthese areas was deferred but willprolong the period of insufficient plantationarea to meet the mill's wood demands.Improved knowledge ofthe estate's soil and weather, and of therequirements of the species planted, iscontinuing to reduce the risk of majormanagement blunders. The importanceof the high variability of Amaz.Oniansoils has been amply demonstrated atJ ari, from the initial catastrophic mistakeTABLE VCALCULATION OF CONTRIBUTION FROM NATIVE WOOD AT JARIPulpSupplement asproduction percent of Supplementaryin 1984/85 (a) Chips required plantation con- woodSpecies (103 m tons) (103 m tons) (b) tribution (c) (103 m tons)Gmelina arborea 82 355.3 5.263 18.7Pinus caribaea 90 390.0 0 0Eucalyptus deg[upta 42 182.0 25 45.5TOTAL 214 927.3 64.2(a)(b)(c)(d)From Table VIICalculated from ratio of chip demand to pulp production3250 m tons chips : 750 m tons pulp ( = 4.33 : 1)Derived from percentage of mix given in Table III:x p/(1 - p) where:x = supplement as proportion of plantation contributionp = supplement as proportion of mix (total wood)Contribution from capitari (Tabebuia insignis) only; some upland forest trees are also used.of planting large areas of Gmelina onsandy soils (Fearnside and Rankin,1980) to the subsequent adjustments reflectedin the areas abandoned or convertedto other uses. A top priority ofJ ari's current research effort is a detailedsoil survey of the estate. Once this informationis in hand, it is hoped thatthe growth records of plantations on thesites will yield a series of regressions formore accurate prediction of plantationyields on different sites. This is clearlyessential for reliable long-range planning.J ari's increased numberof planted pulp species represents an importantsafeguard against biological problemsin any given species, as well as ameans of making better use of the varietyof soil qualities present in the estate.Planting a still broader range of specieswould be highly advisable.Breeding of improvedsilvicultural varieties continues. The potentialgains from investment in geneticimprovement are very great: because thecost of production is so high relative tothe price received for the estate's pulp,even small increments in the yield perhectare represent large percentage gainsin profits (or cuts in losses).Silvicultural treatmentsare being readied in preparation for possiblelong-range changes in Brazil's laboreconomy. Motorized mowers are nowweeding some stands of Pinus and Eucalyptus(but not Gmelina). The staff areconcerned that the presently very lowwages in Brazil for manual labor couldrise sharply, significantly increasing thecompany's costs. Such changes in manuallabor costs have forced abandonmentof silvicultural plantations in some othercountries (see Fearnside and Rankin,1980). The company rather have a smallernumber of better-qualified and betterpaidmachine operators settled with theirfamilies than a large number of migrantlaborers for manual weed control. Migrantlaborers come with diseases such asmalaria, filling up the hospitals andcreating social problems. Nor will theirchildren ever provide a settled pool ofqualified labor. Antunes backs the effortto create a pool of skilled labor rootedat Jari and has agreed to pay for a secondaryschool in Monte Dourado to giveagronomic and silvicultural training tolocal youth.Rooting staff at J ari isimportant at all levels in the companyhierarchy. Turnover in the technical staffhas been extremely high. Of the 22 personsin a 1982 photograph of the technicalstaff at the pulp mill, only two werestill at Jari by 1986. Technical staffturnover has been due largely to lowsalaries, now-one third to one-half thelevel of Jari's 1980 salaries in real terms.Other firms have been able to tempt J ariemployees away, sometimes taking entiredepartments at once. Although salariesin many Brazilian government institutionshave fallen even further than J ari'ssalaries during the same period, theprivate sector competes successfully byoffering slightly higher pay. In addition,J ari would have to offer higher salariesto hold employees who would rather livenear a large urban center.ll\1fR(Ifl\(lll JAN -FEB 1988, VOL. 13 N9 117

Although the plantationswere begun in 1968, it is misleading toassume that the firm bas the benefit of19 years of silvicultural experience at thesite. The high turnover in personnel basresulted in virtually no living memory ofthe earlier years among those in positionsof technical responsibility. I was frequentlysurprised to find myself called uponas a source of information about whathad been done under the previous management.High turnover can beparticularly detrimental to long-term researchprojects, since silviculture experimentsby nature take years to produceresults. Adequate record-keeping is essentialto insure against the loss of informationfrom past experience in theface of staff turnover. The formal experimentsset up by the research departmentare usually well recorded, but asubstantial body of research informationis generated informally from spur-of-themomentinitiatives in the forest managementdepartment. These research initiativesare a healthy way of quickly obtainingrough information on the responseto variations in fertilizer application,weeding, and other management techniques.When informal trials of this typegive promising results, the research departmentfollows them up by formal controlledexperiments. Examples includefertilizer use in compacted soil in formerlog storage decks and the use of moreeconomically handled tubes for plantingseedlings in the nursery. Much of the informationgained from informal trials islost when the staff leave Jari.The new J ari has hadthe benefit of a stable management at thetop, in sharp contrast to the estate's pasthistory. While Ludwig hired and firedover 30 directors over the course of his14-year tenure, a single director led theenterprise from the time control passedto the present consortium in 1982 untilhe stepped down in July 1986. Theformer director will continue to participatein J ari's management in an advisorycapacity.D) Use of Native ForestFewer species of treesfrom the native forest are used for pulpat J ari than previously. Only 5% of thenative species are for pulping: the listbas been reduced from 80 species usedin 1983 to 40 species in 1986. Only thosespecies with long fibers, which resisttearing, are now used. The heavier nativewoods break the lighter Eucalyptus.Fig. 1 .Location and features of Jari.A significant addition tothe Eucalyptus deglupta pulp has beenwood from "capitari" (Tabebuia insignis),a tree obtained from natural forest inthe floodplain along the lgarape !pitinga,a tributary to the J ari River near itsconfluence with the Amazon. Harvest isfrom December through July, duringwhich time the mill consumes daily 700m tons wet weight of the species. An8000 ha tract of capitari is being cutover the 1985-1987 period, 5000 ba ofwhich bad been cut by April 1986. Anetwork of canals has been constructedto float the logs to a central collectionpoint where they are grouped into rafts,P A R Aof 25,000 logs for the 3-day trip to thepulp mill. The cut areas are not replanted,nor are they converted to water buffaloor rice. Capitarf makes up 40% ofthe mixture in Jari's Eucalyptus degluptapulp. Capitarf has thicker fibers andthinner walls than does Eucalyptus, resultingin better quality pulp than wouldbe obtained from pure Eucalyptus. Theestate's "Jarilyptus" pulp is therefore notconsidered to be Eucalyptus in internationalmarkets, but is classified as a differentproduct with different uses.Some native "mungubeira"(Bombax munguba), another varzeatree, is also used. Its long fiber is used18JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 Nl' 1 ln7fR[IfnWI

to improve the mix so that stronger celluloseis produced.An additional supplementto wood supply comes from uplandforest management experiments beingconducted at Jari by the Brazilian Enterprisefor Agriculture and CattleRanching Research (EMBRAPA). A selectivefelling experiment has established 48plots of 0.25 ha each at J ari (12 ha total).However, much larger areas aremanaged for other purposes under theJari/EMBRAPA agreement: 400 ha weredesignated in 1981 for firewood management;a 400-ha pulp-management areawas established in 1981, and a 400-hamixed-management area was establishedin 1982. In 1985 the first measurementswere made in the management areas andin a 300-ha control plot in uncut nativeforest. An additional 933 ha of forestis directed to cellulose productionthrough selective felling, with measurementparcels established within the tract.The EMBRAPA selectivefelling experiments provide a significantsupplement of wood for the pulp milland power plant without the expenses ofeither planting silvicultural species incleared areas or replacing the harvestedtrees in the forest areas. In Novemberand December 1985, for example, 500 hawere selectively harvested among thethree treatments, yielding 18,000 m 3 ofwood. The harvesting scheme results in amaximum amount of wood being cut:of the 500 ha, 404 ha ( 81 % ) were cutat the highest level of intensity (removalof 35% of the average 166 m 3 /ha total,or an average of 61 m 3 I ha). The experimentitself was limited to 3 blocks of48 ha each (144 ha total), with harvestingintensities of 15, 25 and 35%. All ofthe remainder of the 500-ha tract washarvested at the highest (35%) intensitylevel. EMBRAP A has also experimentedwith clearfelling: an area was cut in thedry season of 1985, logs were removedand branches left on the site, which wasnot burned. A secondary forest regrowingon the site is to be monitored toassess the utility of the species.Since over 90% of Jari'supland forests are still intact, theseforests are a major potential resource forthe company. A tree species survey isunderway beginning with areas that aretopographically appropriat~ for futureplantations. Jari maps indicate roads tothree plateaus where no plantations havebeen installed. Forest inventories arebeing done on all such plateaus. ByApril 1986 Jari's research departmenthad surveyed 4416 ha of forest in strips50JARI 1 SPLANTATIONS0 40 70+-080060 J:+- ...,'+- 30 50 0~0~ 4020 0Cll30 ....0

TABLE VIPROJECTED WOOD AVAILABILITY AT JARIEucalyptusYear Gmelina camaldureadyItem to (from seed & Pinus Eucalyptus Eucalyptus Eucalyptus lensis & Native Experi-harvest coppices) caribaea deglupta urophylla urograndis pellita species mental TotalArea 1986 1,197 1,393 9,664 166 0(ha) 1987 6,998 4,595 4,807 2,757 01988 3,105 4,824 0 7,392 1421989 5,927 732 0 3,127 849Wood from 1986 55,119 74,534 601,409 9,728 0plantations 1987 265,924 96,495 281,210 161,560 0(m tons) 1988 117,990 227,934 0 433,171 8,3211989 225,226 34,587 0 183,242 49,751Wood from 1986 2,901 0 400,940 2,431 0native 1987 13,996 0 187,479 40,390 0forest 1988 6,210 0 0 108,292 2,080(m tons) 1989 11,854 0 0 45,810 12,438Total 1986 58,020 74,534 1,002,349 12,159 0pulpwood 1987 279,920 96,495 468,689 201,950 0(m tons) 1988 124,200 227,934 0 541,464 10,4011989 237,080 34,587 0 229,053 69,1892 0 146 12,56864 27 49 19,2970 130 19 15,6120 0 63 10,698117 0 27,115 767,9273,750 1,582 6,461 937,6010 7,618 2,505 797,5400 0 8,306 501,11329 0 6,754 413,075938 396 1,615 244,8160 1,904 626 119,1140 0 2,076 72,179146 0 33,768 1,180,9974,688 1,978 8,076 1,182,4170 9,522 3,131 916,6530 0 10,383 572,292shortfallproductionor quantity as percentsurplus (m tons) of need (a)Wood 1986 surplus: 40,247 104%availabiliy 1987 surplus: 41,667 104%1988 shortfall: 224,097 80%1989 shortfall: 567,458 50%(a) Mill need = 1,140,750 metric tons dry weight of pulpwood chips per year,bring water to the paddies from theAmazon River. Previous experiments hadshown the advantages of using this nutrient-richwater source instead of thepresent water from the Ariaolos River.Rice production cost perton is US$205 (direct costs only), plusUS$133 per ton in indirect costs (administration,etc.), giving a total productioncost of US$338/m ton. The pricereceived in Belem is US$350/ m ton, butthe additional expenses of freight toBelem, taxes and comissions reduce thenet amount received by J ari to US$305/m ton. The loss of US$33/m tonimplies a financial drain of US$990,000for the 30,000 m tons of rice producedin 1985.All of the rice is soldwithin Brazil, at prices frozen under thecountry's "Plano Cruzado" economicpackage. Since international rice pricesare higher than domestic prices, thecompany has lost money due to the requirementto sell the rice productiondomestically. Pulp prices, by contrast,are relatively low on the internationalmarketplace, giving J ari an advantage onthe portion of the pulp production soldwithin Brazil.The research activitiesat the rice plantation are now carried outunder a cooperative agreement withEMBRAPA. This is an essential element inassuring the ability of the operation tocounter new biological problems in thefuture. Research at the rice project hadbeen discontinued completely in the finaltwo years of Ludwig's tenure.Kaolin mmmg: Jari'skaolin (china-clay) mine has increasedits output by expanding the number ofsettling ponds for separating the kaolinfrom the slurry that is piped from theminesite at Felipe (Amapa) to the processingplant at Munguba (Para). Themining company (CAD AM) has increasedthe pace of digging into Jari's open-pitmine and modified the procedures used atthe processing plant in order to recovera higher percentage of the material.Sawmill: J ari's sawmillcontinues to saw lumber from the valuabletree species encountered as land iscleared for plantations. The sawmill remainsa relatively minor part of the enterprise.Water Buffalo: The herdof 6800 water buffalo at Jari in 1983increased to 9300 by 1986, spread over50,000 of the 70,000 ha of natural floodedgrasslands at Jari. Jari plans totriple the buffalo herd to 30,000 head,which would occupy all of Jari's floodedgrassland area with the exception of thepart planned for expansion of the riceproject. Water buffalo will occupy theentire length of the Amazon Riverfrontage of J ari, from the mouth of theParu River to the mouth of the CajariRiver, in addition to the estate's islandsin the Amazon River (see Figure 1).The water buffalo raisingscheme includes a milk and cheeseproduction program established in late1984, which is currently producing 1000liters of milk per day (including butterand cheese). The cheese-making facilitieshave been moved to the Camanduiisland in the Amazon river. The newsystem has a decentralized network of20JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 Nil 1 IR7fR[IfRWI

corrals atop earth-fill hills. During thehigh-water period, these artificial hillsbecome small islands, each with an areaof 1200 m 2 • The earth-fill hills replacethe traditional "marombas" - raisedwooden platforms where the cattle arepenned during the flood season. The remainingmarombas at J ari will eventuallybe replaced by the earth-fill islands.The cowboy in charge of each island isprovided with a house built over thecorral. The houses have better sanitationand other facilities than most traditionalfloodplain residents enjoy. The cowboy'swife is responsible for making butterfrom some of the milk. J ari had six ofthe raised corrals as of April 1986 andplanned to have two more by the endof 1986.The earth-fill islandsinclude a fish culture scheme still in anexperimental phase. A hole is left in thecenter of each island, creating a pond.Excrement from the water buffalo in thecorral fertilizes the pond, where aquaticplants (known locally as "murure") serveas food for two species of forage fish(known locally as "tamuata" and "jijuna").These fish are eaten by the commercialspecies (pirarucu" (Arapaima gigas).Research on the fish culture schemehas been underway since 1983 in a cooperativearrangement with EMBRAPA.There is also a smallexperimental herd of 50 water buffaloin the terra firme (uplands) area nearSao Miguel. This operates under a cooperativeagreement with the Faculty ofAgrarian Sciences of Para (FCAP).Upland caule: Jari currentlyhas 2000 head of bovine cattle interra /irme, mostly near Sao Miguel. Thearea of pasture will expand by 3000 hato take advantage of installations, allowingthe total herd to be augmentedto 7000 head. J ari has a demand for 500-600 head/ month for meat supply. A herdof 35,000 bead would be needed tosupply this, including females kept formilk and cheese.The upland cattle herdis no longer being managed for on-sitereproduction. Heifers are bought andfattened. The remaining cows of goodquality continue to be bred, and theiroffspring will be bred, but the firm'swaning interest in the breeding phasemeans that this will fade out over a fewyears. Breeding would require more landand effort.Establishment of newinterplanted stands of pasture with Pinuscaribaea was discontinued in ca. 1982for a variety of reasons (Fearnside andRankin, 1985). The cattle have sinceTABLE VIIFINANCIAL BALANCE IN JARI'S SILVICULTURE SECTOR (1984/85)Receipts:PriceQuantity (US$/ ValuePulp species Market (103 m tons) m tons FOB) (103 US$)Gmelina arborea Export 66 267 17,622Domestic 16 331 5,296Pinus caribaea Export 48 249 11,952Domestic 42 256 10,752Eucalyptus deglupta Export 31 267 8,277Domestic 11 331 3,641214 57,540Production costs(exclusive of debt service) 104,790been removed from all of the previouslyestablished interplanted stands due tothe pine's advancing age.J ari's upland cattle pasturesare of the species Brachiaria humidicola,which was promoted throughoutthe Brazilian Amazon by EMBRAPAin the late 1970's. An increasing attack ofthe homopteran bug Deois incompleta(known locally as "cigarrinha") hassince led EMBRAPA to recommend An-.dropogon guianensis instead. The bugsare a serious pest on the Beh!m-BrasiliaHighway in Para and on the CuiaM­Santarem Highway in northern MatoGrosso, but have not yet become a problemat Jari. Jari's ranching departmentsays that its Brachigria humidicola pastureshave to be manually cleaned ofwoody second growth every year and replantedevery 4 years.Jari's Wood ShortageJ ari's mill uses 3000-3500 m tons/ day of chips for pulpingwhen operating at its 750 m tons/ daynominal capacity. Chips required forfirewood have so far been supplied entirelyfrom native forest. The balance betweenwood demands and the growth ofthe plantations is essential in evaluatingthe project's future.A rough calculation ofthe growth of the plantations can begained from the midpoint areas of thepresent complex of each species and ageclass (Table I). Using the midpoint ofLOSS IN SILVICULTURE SECfOR 47,250the yield range for each species (TableII) one can calculate the approximateamount of wood growth in the estate'splantations (Table III). In order to bringplantation growth and wood demandsinto balance the plantation area wouldhave to be expanded by 21.4%, assumingthe same present percentage of eachsilvicultural species and the present supplementof native wood.The wood balance overthe next few years will be critical becauseLudwig planted little in the lastyears of his tenure. The first treesplanted under the new administrationwill come on line in 1987. In 1985 thecompany was racing to obtain enoughwood to keep the mill from stopping.Measures included gleaning previouslyfelled areas for logs that could be usedfor firewood in the power plant and theearly harvest of stands. The mill wooddemand was lower than usual: forreasons unrelated to the shortage the pulpmill operated at below capacity for severalmonths, and then stopped operatingaltogether for one month duringwhich repairs were effected. 1 1 >The availability of pulpwoodover the 1986-1989 period can beroughly projected (Table VI) based onthe plantation areas and age classes(Table I) and the rotations and yieldmidpoints for the major species (TableII). Several optimistic assumptions aremade in the projection as estimates ofthe contributions of the species and ageclasses not included in Table II. 1 2 > Theprojection indicates that Jari will have11\JEROERWI JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 N9 121

enough wood to supply its pulp mill in1986 and 1987, but that in 1988 and1989 there will be a severe shortfall. In1989 the estate would only produce halfof its pulpwood needs. The shortage in1989 is approximately twice as severeas it would have been if bad weatherhad not prevented the estate from burning3000 ha in 1985.Jari's Financial SituationJ ari has achieved a significantimprovement by eliminating itsoperating losses. Company oficials saythat in 1982/83 J ari had an operatingloss of US$87 million. Operating lossesfell to US$23 million in 1983/84, andin 1984/85 the firm had neither anoperating loss nor profit. A small operatingprofit is expected for 1985-86. Operatingprofits and losses do not includethe cost of debt service - the paymentsof interest and principal on money owedto creditors. These costs must be substantial:Jari's debt at the time of Ludwig's( 1982) sale was estimated to beUS$300 million (lsro E, 21 May 1986),to which must be added a US$25 millionloan obtained by the new owners in1984 (Pinto, 1986: 210).Jari's operating costsare high in part due to its vast infrastructure,including 3500 km of roads,not counting secondary roads in theplantations. For comparison, the TransamazonHighway route within Ama:z.Oniatotals only about 3000 km. Expansion ofthe plantation area to bring growth andwood demand into balance will requirefurther increasing this infrastructure.Low pulp prices havebeen a major financial strain on Jari.The world pulp shortage that Ludwigoriginally foresaw raising pulp prices toUS$700/ton in the 1980's has never materialized.Instead the pulp market declinedto a low in 1985. The price ofpulp in 1986 was around US$400/mton, representing an improvement over1985 market conditions but still notallowing the silviculture sector to meetits operating expenses from pulp sales.The breakeven pointused as a rule thumb at the pulp millis US$450/ ton for all three species. Sincethe price received has been in theneighborhood of US$400/ton, the differencerepresents a subsidy from theother company operations, especially thekaolin mine. Even the US$450 rule ofthumb appears to underestimate the realcost of production. The financial sector'sTABLE VlllCHARCOAL DEMAND FOR GRANDE CARAJAS COMPAREDTO YIELDS AT JARIInformation on Grande Carajas charcoal scheme:Number of pig-iron plants approved: (a)Annual charcoal demand for the pig-ironplants already approved:Mean charcoal demand per plant:Total number of pig-iron plants planned:Conversion efficiency of wood to charcoal(mean of 4 conventional methods):

tinued dedication to silviculture nor itssubstantial achievements in eliminatingoperating losses can be interpreted asmeaning that large scale silviculturalplantations are now an economicallyviable development mode in Amaz6nia.J ari's silviculture sector has been losingmoney despite the estate's widely publicizedachievement of an overall operatingprofit: the losses from silviculturehave been compensated by the profitablekaolin mine. The operating profit alsodoes not include debt service. Even werethese factors included, the low purchaseprice paid by the current owners relativeto the investments needed to implant J arimeans that profitabilitY from the vantageof the present J ari consortium would beinsufficient to make the estate a modelfor other silvicultural undertakings.The Grande Carajasprogram's pig-iron scheme would requirevast silvicultural plantations to supplycharcoal. Sustainability of these plantations,as at Jari, will require a minimizationof biological risks and a balance ofinflows and outflows of ecosystem nutrients.The charcoal demands of 11 enterprisesfor which financial incentiveshad been approved by May 1986, including7 pig-iron plants, have been estimatedat 1.1 million metric tons annually(Brazil, Presidencia da Republica, ProgramaGrande Carajas, cooEBAR and Ministeriodo Interior, suoAM, 1986: 2).Information on charcoal demands andpig-iron mill construction plans describedby Francisco Sales Batista Ferreira, headof the Grande Carajas InterministerialProgram, allow calculation of silviculturalplantation requirements based on theyields at Jari (Table VIII). These ealetdationsreveal that over 700,000 ha ofEucalyptus plantations would be needed,or an area almost 10 times that of themanaged plantations at J ari.Because of their vastarea, the silviculture plantations necessaryto supply the pig-iron plants of CaraJaSwould face problems and uncertaintieseven greater than those at J ari.The magnitude of the investment requiredby such a scheme also indicatesthe likelihood that the 20 pig-iron plantsfor Carajas will use large amounts ofwood from felling native forests for aslong as these forests continue to exist inthe area. Native forest felling does avoid,at least temporarily, the costs of plantingand maintenance associated with silviculture.The pig-iron plants of Carajasare therefore likely to become majorforces speeding the deforestation ofEastern Amazonia.The difficulties of sustaininglarge-scale silvicultural operationsin Amaronia illustrated by Jari apply notonly to Carajas but to any project thatcalls for establishing vast expanses oftree plantations in the region. As theplans for Carajas show, Jari is not thelast such project. The planners of Carajasand other projects should ponder wellthe lessons learned at Jari. < 4 >NOTES1. Wood shortage was not the reason foreither the slowdown or the stoppage, accordingto the mill staff. Mill output hadbeen falling because of the limited poweroutput (down to 40 megawatts since No·vember 1985, as compared to full capacityof 55 megawatts). The power plant returnedto full capacity in late March 1986after repairs to its supporting framework.The power plant was operating below capacityto avoid harmonic vibration fromthe turbine caused by the broken frameworkand because the absence of bedrockat the site had obliged the plant's buildersto mount the plant on wooden posts thatare subject to settling. A new frameworkfor the plant was made in Japan andshipped to Jari.2. Table VI assumes that all plantationsolder than the harvest age given in TableII have continued to grow at the sameyearly rate, and that the contribution fromnative forest for species other than E.deglupta are half the percentage of thepulp mix as Jari uses for E. deglupta. Itis assumed that E. urograndis, E. camaldulensis,E. pe/lita, and native and expermentalplots all grow at the same rate asE. urophylla. Rotations equal to that ofE. urophyla are assumed for these species,with the exception of the experimentalplots, for which a rotation equal to thatof P. caribaea is used.3. In a speech to Jari's technical staff on 8April 1986, Antunes said that the governmenthas yet to regularize the estate's landtitles, approve construction of the proposedhydroelectric dam on the Jari River,take over the schools at Monte Dourado,pave the airport runway, or maintain thecity streets, airport and other municipalinfrastructure. The government health department(SESP) has taken over the hospital,although Jari is obliged to contributea supplement to the doctor's salaries inorder to keep the facility operating.4. I thank the J ari staff for their patiencewith my questions. Travel funds to Jariwere provided by the Instituto Nacionalde Pesquisas da Amazonia (INPA). Anearlier version of this paper was presentedat the Symposium on "Homem e Naturezana Amazonia", 25-28 May 1986,Blaubeuren, Federal Republic of Germany.I thank the Geographische lnstitut, UniversitiitTiibingen, for permission to publishthe present paper; an abbreviated versionappeared in Portuguese in the symposiumproceeding (Fearn side, 1987). Ithank J. G. Gunn and J. M. Rankin forvaluable comments on the manuscript.REFERENCESBrazil, Presidencia da Republica, Secretar\a dePlanejamento (SEPLAN), Programa GrandeCarajas, Companhia de Desenvolvimentode Barcarena (cooEBAR) and Mini.steriodo Interior, Superintendencia de Desenvolvimentoda Amazonia (suoAM). (1986):Problemdtica do Carviio Vegetal na Areado Programa Grande Carajds. CODEBAR/SUDAM, BeJem. 117 pp.Fearnside, P. M. (1980): The effects of cattlepastures on soil fertility in the BrazilianAmazon: Consequences for beef productionsu;tainability. Tropical Ecology21(1): 125-137.Fearnside, P. M. ( 1986a): Agricultural plansfor Brazil's Grande Carajas Program: Lostopportunity for sustainable development?World Development 14(3): 385-409.Fearnside, P. M. (1986b): Human CarryingCapacity of the Brazilian Rainforest. ColumbiaUniversity Press, New York.293 pp.Fearnside, P. M. (1987): Jari aos dezoitoanos: Lio;oes para os pianos silviculturaisem Carajas, pp. 292-311. In: G. Kohlheppand A. Schrader (eds.) Homem e Naturezana Amazonia. Tiibinger GeographischeStudien 95 (Tiibinger Betiriige zurGeographischen Lateinamerika-Forschung3). Geographisches Institut, UniversitiitTiibingen, Federal Republic of Germany507 pp.Fearnside, P. M. and Burn Quality Predictionfor Simulation of the Agricultural Systemof Brazil's Transamazon Highway Colonistsfor Estimating Human Carrying Capac:ty.In: K. C. Misra, H. N. Pandey and S. R.Govil (eds). Ecology and Resource Managementin the Tropics. Vol. 2. BhargavaBook Depot, Varanasi, India. (In press).Fearnside, P. M. and Rankin, J. M. (1980):Jari and development in the BrazilianAmazon. Interciencia 5 (3): 146-156.Fearnside, P. M. and Rankin, J. M. (1982):The New Jari: Risks and Prospects of aMajor Amazonian Development. Interciencia7 (6): 329-339.Fearnside, P. M. and Rankin, J. M. (1985):J ari revisited: Changes and the outlook forsustainability in Amazonia's largest silviculturalestate. Interciencia 10(3): 121-129.Isto E (Sao Paulo). (21 May 1986): "Pesadelosem fim: Paraense revela os bastidoresdo Jari". p. 50.Newsweek (New York). (ll August 1986):The unmaking of a fiasco: Daniel Ludwigsformer Amazonian empire is showingnew signs of life", pp. 34-35.Pinto, L. F. (1986): Jari: Toda a verdade sobreo projeto de Ludwig, Editora MarcoZero, Sao Paulo. 219 pp.United States, National Academy of Sciences(NAS). (1980): Firewood Crops: Shruband Tree Species for Energy Production.NAS, Washington, D.C. 237 pp.Veja (Sao Paulo) (8 January 1986): "Sauderesgatada: quatro anos depois de passarao controle de brasileiros, o polemico ProjetoJ ari deixa o vermelho e ja ensaianovos investimentos", pp. 60-62.24JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 N