jari at age 19 - Philip M. Fearnside - Inpa

tinued dedication to silviculture nor itssubstantial achievements in eliminatingoperating losses can be interpreted asmeaning that large scale silviculturalplantations are now an economicallyviable development mode in Amaz6nia.J ari's silviculture sector has been losingmoney despite the estate's widely publicizedachievement of an overall operatingprofit: the losses from silviculturehave been compensated by the profitablekaolin mine. The operating profit alsodoes not include debt service. Even werethese factors included, the low purchaseprice paid by the current owners relativeto the investments needed to implant J arimeans that profitabilitY from the vantageof the present J ari consortium would beinsufficient to make the estate a modelfor other silvicultural undertakings.The Grande Carajasprogram's pig-iron scheme would requirevast silvicultural plantations to supplycharcoal. Sustainability of these plantations,as at Jari, will require a minimizationof biological risks and a balance ofinflows and outflows of ecosystem nutrients.The charcoal demands of 11 enterprisesfor which financial incentiveshad been approved by May 1986, including7 pig-iron plants, have been estimatedat 1.1 million metric tons annually(Brazil, Presidencia da Republica, ProgramaGrande Carajas, cooEBAR and Ministeriodo Interior, suoAM, 1986: 2).Information on charcoal demands andpig-iron mill construction plans describedby Francisco Sales Batista Ferreira, headof the Grande Carajas InterministerialProgram, allow calculation of silviculturalplantation requirements based on theyields at Jari (Table VIII). These ealetdationsreveal that over 700,000 ha ofEucalyptus plantations would be needed,or an area almost 10 times that of themanaged plantations at J ari.Because of their vastarea, the silviculture plantations necessaryto supply the pig-iron plants of CaraJaSwould face problems and uncertaintieseven greater than those at J ari.The magnitude of the investment requiredby such a scheme also indicatesthe likelihood that the 20 pig-iron plantsfor Carajas will use large amounts ofwood from felling native forests for aslong as these forests continue to exist inthe area. Native forest felling does avoid,at least temporarily, the costs of plantingand maintenance associated with silviculture.The pig-iron plants of Carajasare therefore likely to become majorforces speeding the deforestation ofEastern Amazonia.The difficulties of sustaininglarge-scale silvicultural operationsin Amaronia illustrated by Jari apply notonly to Carajas but to any project thatcalls for establishing vast expanses oftree plantations in the region. As theplans for Carajas show, Jari is not thelast such project. The planners of Carajasand other projects should ponder wellthe lessons learned at Jari. < 4 >NOTES1. Wood shortage was not the reason foreither the slowdown or the stoppage, accordingto the mill staff. Mill output hadbeen falling because of the limited poweroutput (down to 40 megawatts since No·vember 1985, as compared to full capacityof 55 megawatts). The power plant returnedto full capacity in late March 1986after repairs to its supporting framework.The power plant was operating below capacityto avoid harmonic vibration fromthe turbine caused by the broken frameworkand because the absence of bedrockat the site had obliged the plant's buildersto mount the plant on wooden posts thatare subject to settling. A new frameworkfor the plant was made in Japan andshipped to Jari.2. Table VI assumes that all plantationsolder than the harvest age given in TableII have continued to grow at the sameyearly rate, and that the contribution fromnative forest for species other than E.deglupta are half the percentage of thepulp mix as Jari uses for E. deglupta. Itis assumed that E. urograndis, E. camaldulensis,E. pe/lita, and native and expermentalplots all grow at the same rate asE. urophylla. Rotations equal to that ofE. urophyla are assumed for these species,with the exception of the experimentalplots, for which a rotation equal to thatof P. caribaea is used.3. In a speech to Jari's technical staff on 8April 1986, Antunes said that the governmenthas yet to regularize the estate's landtitles, approve construction of the proposedhydroelectric dam on the Jari River,take over the schools at Monte Dourado,pave the airport runway, or maintain thecity streets, airport and other municipalinfrastructure. The government health department(SESP) has taken over the hospital,although Jari is obliged to contributea supplement to the doctor's salaries inorder to keep the facility operating.4. I thank the J ari staff for their patiencewith my questions. Travel funds to Jariwere provided by the Instituto Nacionalde Pesquisas da Amazonia (INPA). Anearlier version of this paper was presentedat the Symposium on "Homem e Naturezana Amazonia", 25-28 May 1986,Blaubeuren, Federal Republic of Germany.I thank the Geographische lnstitut, UniversitiitTiibingen, for permission to publishthe present paper; an abbreviated versionappeared in Portuguese in the symposiumproceeding (Fearn side, 1987). Ithank J. G. Gunn and J. M. Rankin forvaluable comments on the manuscript.REFERENCESBrazil, Presidencia da Republica, Secretar\a dePlanejamento (SEPLAN), Programa GrandeCarajas, Companhia de Desenvolvimentode Barcarena (cooEBAR) and Mini.steriodo Interior, Superintendencia de Desenvolvimentoda Amazonia (suoAM). (1986):Problemdtica do Carviio Vegetal na Areado Programa Grande Carajds. CODEBAR/SUDAM, BeJem. 117 pp.Fearnside, P. M. (1980): The effects of cattlepastures on soil fertility in the BrazilianAmazon: Consequences for beef productionsu;tainability. Tropical Ecology21(1): 125-137.Fearnside, P. M. ( 1986a): Agricultural plansfor Brazil's Grande Carajas Program: Lostopportunity for sustainable development?World Development 14(3): 385-409.Fearnside, P. M. (1986b): Human CarryingCapacity of the Brazilian Rainforest. ColumbiaUniversity Press, New York.293 pp.Fearnside, P. M. (1987): Jari aos dezoitoanos: Lio;oes para os pianos silviculturaisem Carajas, pp. 292-311. In: G. Kohlheppand A. Schrader (eds.) Homem e Naturezana Amazonia. Tiibinger GeographischeStudien 95 (Tiibinger Betiriige zurGeographischen Lateinamerika-Forschung3). Geographisches Institut, UniversitiitTiibingen, Federal Republic of Germany507 pp.Fearnside, P. M. and Burn Quality Predictionfor Simulation of the Agricultural Systemof Brazil's Transamazon Highway Colonistsfor Estimating Human Carrying Capac:ty.In: K. C. Misra, H. N. Pandey and S. R.Govil (eds). Ecology and Resource Managementin the Tropics. Vol. 2. BhargavaBook Depot, Varanasi, India. (In press).Fearnside, P. M. and Rankin, J. M. (1980):Jari and development in the BrazilianAmazon. Interciencia 5 (3): 146-156.Fearnside, P. M. and Rankin, J. M. (1982):The New Jari: Risks and Prospects of aMajor Amazonian Development. Interciencia7 (6): 329-339.Fearnside, P. M. and Rankin, J. M. (1985):J ari revisited: Changes and the outlook forsustainability in Amazonia's largest silviculturalestate. Interciencia 10(3): 121-129.Isto E (Sao Paulo). (21 May 1986): "Pesadelosem fim: Paraense revela os bastidoresdo Jari". p. 50.Newsweek (New York). (ll August 1986):The unmaking of a fiasco: Daniel Ludwigsformer Amazonian empire is showingnew signs of life", pp. 34-35.Pinto, L. F. (1986): Jari: Toda a verdade sobreo projeto de Ludwig, Editora MarcoZero, Sao Paulo. 219 pp.United States, National Academy of Sciences(NAS). (1980): Firewood Crops: Shruband Tree Species for Energy Production.NAS, Washington, D.C. 237 pp.Veja (Sao Paulo) (8 January 1986): "Sauderesgatada: quatro anos depois de passarao controle de brasileiros, o polemico ProjetoJ ari deixa o vermelho e ja ensaianovos investimentos", pp. 60-62.24JAN- FEB 1988, VOL. 13 N