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jari at age 19 - Philip M. Fearnside - Inpa

jari at age 19 - Philip M. Fearnside - Inpa

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enough wood to supply its pulp mill in<strong>19</strong>86 and <strong>19</strong>87, but th<strong>at</strong> in <strong>19</strong>88 and<strong>19</strong>89 there will be a severe shortfall. In<strong>19</strong>89 the est<strong>at</strong>e would only produce halfof its pulpwood needs. The short<strong>age</strong> in<strong>19</strong>89 is approxim<strong>at</strong>ely twice as severeas it would have been if bad we<strong>at</strong>herhad not prevented the est<strong>at</strong>e from burning3000 ha in <strong>19</strong>85.Jari's Financial Situ<strong>at</strong>ionJ ari has achieved a significantimprovement by elimin<strong>at</strong>ing itsoper<strong>at</strong>ing losses. Company oficials sayth<strong>at</strong> in <strong>19</strong>82/83 J ari had an oper<strong>at</strong>ingloss of US$87 million. Oper<strong>at</strong>ing lossesfell to US$23 million in <strong>19</strong>83/84, andin <strong>19</strong>84/85 the firm had neither anoper<strong>at</strong>ing loss nor profit. A small oper<strong>at</strong>ingprofit is expected for <strong>19</strong>85-86. Oper<strong>at</strong>ingprofits and losses do not includethe cost of debt service - the paymentsof interest and principal on money owedto creditors. These costs must be substantial:Jari's debt <strong>at</strong> the time of Ludwig's( <strong>19</strong>82) sale was estim<strong>at</strong>ed to beUS$300 million (lsro E, 21 May <strong>19</strong>86),to which must be added a US$25 millionloan obtained by the new owners in<strong>19</strong>84 (Pinto, <strong>19</strong>86: 210).Jari's oper<strong>at</strong>ing costsare high in part due to its vast infrastructure,including 3500 km of roads,not counting secondary roads in theplant<strong>at</strong>ions. For comparison, the TransamazonHighway route within Ama:z.Oni<strong>at</strong>otals only about 3000 km. Expansion ofthe plant<strong>at</strong>ion area to bring growth andwood demand into balance will requirefurther increasing this infrastructure.Low pulp prices havebeen a major financial strain on Jari.The world pulp short<strong>age</strong> th<strong>at</strong> Ludwigoriginally foresaw raising pulp prices toUS$700/ton in the <strong>19</strong>80's has never m<strong>at</strong>erialized.Instead the pulp market declinedto a low in <strong>19</strong>85. The price ofpulp in <strong>19</strong>86 was around US$400/mton, representing an improvement over<strong>19</strong>85 market conditions but still notallowing the silviculture sector to meetits oper<strong>at</strong>ing expenses from pulp sales.The breakeven pointused as a rule thumb <strong>at</strong> the pulp millis US$450/ ton for all three species. Sincethe price received has been in theneighborhood of US$400/ton, the differencerepresents a subsidy from theother company oper<strong>at</strong>ions, especially thekaolin mine. Even the US$450 rule ofthumb appears to underestim<strong>at</strong>e the realcost of production. The financial sector'sTABLE VlllCHARCOAL DEMAND FOR GRANDE CARAJAS COMPAREDTO YIELDS AT JARIInform<strong>at</strong>ion on Grande Carajas charcoal scheme:Number of pig-iron plants approved: (a)Annual charcoal demand for the pig-ironplants already approved:Mean charcoal demand per plant:Total number of pig-iron plants planned:Conversion efficiency of wood to charcoal(mean of 4 conventional methods):

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