Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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What is the rational thing to do?1) Assimilate 2 nd -order evidence:-- Surely you have to do something.-- Otherwise you violate the Principle of Total Evidence.2) Ignore 2 nd -order evidence:-- If you start second-guessing, how do you stop? Arbitrarily?-- 2 nd -order probabilities don’t exist, are trivial, are incoherent.-- Miller’s Principle (a.k.a. <strong>Self</strong>-Respect)-- 2 nd order revision could be distorting-- Is there any added value?10
Degrees of belief as probabilitiesq, r, s, …, q’, r’, s’, …, P S (q) = x, P S (r) = y, … propositionsP S (q) = x … Subject S has degree of belief x in qP S (q/r) = z … S’s degree of belief in q given r is zP T (P S (q) = x) = x’ … Subject T has degree of belief x’ thatsubject S has degree of belief x in q.P S (P S (q) = x) = x’’ … Subject S has degree of belief x’’ thatsubject S has degree of belief x in q.11
Page 1 and 2: Rational Self-DoubtSherri RoushDepa
Page 4 and 5: Judgmental Self-DoubtSecond-guessin
Page 6 and 7: Evidence about q vs. evidence about
Page 8 and 9: Terms - 1 st - and 2 nd - order evi
Page 12 and 13: Second-Order ProbabilitiesA second-
Page 14 and 15: The Principle that Gets in the WayP
Page 16 and 17: Restricted Self-Respect (RSR)P(q/P(
Page 18 and 19: Unrestricted Self-Respect (USR)P(q/
Page 20 and 21: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 22 and 23: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 24 and 25: Principal PrincipleP(q/PR(q) = y .
Page 26 and 27: What’s good for the goose is good
Page 28 and 29: Calibration and Re-calibrationCal(s
Page 30 and 31: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 32 and 33: Incoherence of Cal?1. P(q) = x,2. P
Page 34 and 35: Incoherence of Second-orderPower Se
Page 36 and 37: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 38 and 39: Regress and PathologyRe-CalP f (q)
Page 40 and 41: Regress and Pathology - NoRe-CalP f
Page 42 and 43: Distorting in the long run?The (Pri
Page 44 and 45: Likelihood Ratio Convergence Theore
Page 46 and 47: PointSeidenfeld: Why bother with th
Page 48 and 49: Re-Cal Re-capNews about reliability
Page 50: Assume:P(q) = xP(P(q) = x) = 1By de

Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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