Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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Terms – 1 st - and 2 nd - order evidenceThere are different orders of evidence. So:1 st -order evidence about q, It will rain, is:The barometer reads low pressure.2 nd -order evidence is about your beliefs and theirproperties:The owner of the house says the barometer has beenrusted stuck for five years.Conditionalization: assimilating new evidence byprobabilistically “updating” all of your other beliefs.8
Terms – 1 st – and 2 nd - order beliefAnything that is evidence or hypothesis for you is one of your beliefs:Let q be any proposition not containing a belief predicate, e.g.:The murderer used a knife.You have a first-order belief in q when you believe q. You express this:“The murderer used a knife.”You have a second-order belief (belief about a belief) when you believethat you believe q. To express this belief you say:“I believe that the murderer used a knife”If I describe you, I use one belief predicate vs. two belief predicatesI say: “He believes q” vs. “He believes that he believes q”9
Page 1 and 2: Rational Self-DoubtSherri RoushDepa
Page 4 and 5: Judgmental Self-DoubtSecond-guessin
Page 6 and 7: Evidence about q vs. evidence about
Page 10 and 11: What is the rational thing to do?1)
Page 12 and 13: Second-Order ProbabilitiesA second-
Page 14 and 15: The Principle that Gets in the WayP
Page 16 and 17: Restricted Self-Respect (RSR)P(q/P(
Page 18 and 19: Unrestricted Self-Respect (USR)P(q/
Page 20 and 21: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 22 and 23: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 24 and 25: Principal PrincipleP(q/PR(q) = y .
Page 26 and 27: What’s good for the goose is good
Page 28 and 29: Calibration and Re-calibrationCal(s
Page 30 and 31: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 32 and 33: Incoherence of Cal?1. P(q) = x,2. P
Page 34 and 35: Incoherence of Second-orderPower Se
Page 36 and 37: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 38 and 39: Regress and PathologyRe-CalP f (q)
Page 40 and 41: Regress and Pathology - NoRe-CalP f
Page 42 and 43: Distorting in the long run?The (Pri
Page 44 and 45: Likelihood Ratio Convergence Theore
Page 46 and 47: PointSeidenfeld: Why bother with th
Page 48 and 49: Re-Cal Re-capNews about reliability
Page 50: Assume:P(q) = xP(P(q) = x) = 1By de

Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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