Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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Judgmental <strong>Self</strong>-<strong>Doubt</strong>Second-guessing your opinion on the basis of evidence aboutyour cognitive skills or circumstances. Example occasions:-- You are confident in your memory of certain events, and thenfind out you are on mind-altering drugs.-- You are confident that the murderer is number 3 in the lineup,and then find out that human beings are generallyunreliable in eyewitness testimony.-- You are watching for a tiger and your visual field suddenly goesblank.-- You are a woman not fully confident of your argument, andthen discover that women are generally underconfident.4
More problematically …The evolutionist admits to the Creationist that our theories might bewrong. The latter concludes his view is just as good. Every view isjust a hypothesis! 60% of Americans appear to agree.You admit that most past scientific theories have been false, and areexpected to withdraw confidence in yours. (Pessimistic inductionover the history of science.)You are contemplating marriage and read that the divorce rate is 60%.5
Page 1 and 2: Rational Self-DoubtSherri RoushDepa
Page 6 and 7: Evidence about q vs. evidence about
Page 8 and 9: Terms - 1 st - and 2 nd - order evi
Page 10 and 11: What is the rational thing to do?1)
Page 12 and 13: Second-Order ProbabilitiesA second-
Page 14 and 15: The Principle that Gets in the WayP
Page 16 and 17: Restricted Self-Respect (RSR)P(q/P(
Page 18 and 19: Unrestricted Self-Respect (USR)P(q/
Page 20 and 21: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 22 and 23: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 24 and 25: Principal PrincipleP(q/PR(q) = y .
Page 26 and 27: What’s good for the goose is good
Page 28 and 29: Calibration and Re-calibrationCal(s
Page 30 and 31: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 32 and 33: Incoherence of Cal?1. P(q) = x,2. P
Page 34 and 35: Incoherence of Second-orderPower Se
Page 36 and 37: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 38 and 39: Regress and PathologyRe-CalP f (q)
Page 40 and 41: Regress and Pathology - NoRe-CalP f
Page 42 and 43: Distorting in the long run?The (Pri
Page 44 and 45: Likelihood Ratio Convergence Theore
Page 46 and 47: PointSeidenfeld: Why bother with th
Page 48 and 49: Re-Cal Re-capNews about reliability
Page 50: Assume:P(q) = xP(P(q) = x) = 1By de

Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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