Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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This work was funded by NSF grant SES -0823418:“Fallibility and Revisionin Science and Society”2
Page 1: Rational Self-DoubtSherri RoushDepa
Page 5 and 6: More problematically …The evoluti
Page 7 and 8: Evidence about q vs. evidence about
Page 9 and 10: Terms - 1 st - and 2 nd - order bel
Page 11 and 12: Degrees of belief as probabilitiesq
Page 13 and 14: Agenda - Generalizing BayesianRatio
Page 15 and 16: Restricted Self-Respect (RSR)P(q/P(
Page 17 and 18: Unrestricted Self-Respect (USR)P(q/
Page 19 and 20: Expressing ReliabilityS is reliable
Page 21 and 22: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 23 and 24: Expressing the QuandaryLiterally:P(
Page 25 and 26: Forced ChoiceP(q/P(q) = x . PR(q/P(
Page 27 and 28: Calibration and Re-calibrationCal(s
Page 29 and 30: ApplicationsEyewitness caseTiger ca
Page 31 and 32: Incoherence charges1) Against Cal a
Page 33 and 34: Incoherence of Cal? Nah.1. P(q) = x
Page 35 and 36: SolutionsTyped theory?Re-CalWon’t
Page 37 and 38: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 39 and 40: Regress and Pathology - NoRe-CalP f
Page 41 and 42: Is Recalibration distorting?Seidenf
Page 43 and 44: Likelihood Ratio Convergence Theore
Page 45 and 46: Pointless?Seidenfeld: 1 st -order c
Page 47 and 48: Revising extreme probabilitiesP f (
Page 49 and 50: P f (q) = P i (q/P i (q) = x . PR(q

Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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