Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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Likelihood Ratio Convergence Theorem (LRCT)Hawthorne, James, “Inductive Logic,” Stanford Encyclopediaof <strong>Philosophy</strong>.Likelihood Ratio:P(e/h)/P(e/-h)Suppose you will be fed separating evidence, that is h, -h predict atleast some different outcomes in the stream of evidence. Then it isprobable that you will see outcomes that rule out all the -hhypotheses within a certain number of trials.An LRCT theorem can be proven for the chance hypothesis (function)Of Re-Cal, i.e., where h = Ch(q v ,P(q v )=x)=y(x)Adding second-order conditioning to first-order conditioning isnot distorting in the long run.44
Pointless?Seidenfeld: 1 st -order conditionalizationalone gets you to the truth about q (andto calibration) in the long run. Whybother with the re-calibration rule?45
Page 1 and 2: Rational Self-DoubtSherri RoushDepa
Page 4 and 5: Judgmental Self-DoubtSecond-guessin
Page 6 and 7: Evidence about q vs. evidence about
Page 8 and 9: Terms - 1 st - and 2 nd - order evi
Page 10 and 11: What is the rational thing to do?1)
Page 12 and 13: Second-Order ProbabilitiesA second-
Page 14 and 15: The Principle that Gets in the WayP
Page 16 and 17: Restricted Self-Respect (RSR)P(q/P(
Page 18 and 19: Unrestricted Self-Respect (USR)P(q/
Page 20 and 21: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 22 and 23: Expressing the QuandaryExplicitly:P
Page 24 and 25: Principal PrincipleP(q/PR(q) = y .
Page 26 and 27: What’s good for the goose is good
Page 28 and 29: Calibration and Re-calibrationCal(s
Page 30 and 31: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 32 and 33: Incoherence of Cal?1. P(q) = x,2. P
Page 34 and 35: Incoherence of Second-orderPower Se
Page 36 and 37: Taking StockSupposed reasons to ign
Page 38 and 39: Regress and PathologyRe-CalP f (q)
Page 40 and 41: Regress and Pathology - NoRe-CalP f
Page 42 and 43: Distorting in the long run?The (Pri
Page 46 and 47: PointSeidenfeld: Why bother with th
Page 48 and 49: Re-Cal Re-capNews about reliability
Page 50: Assume:P(q) = xP(P(q) = x) = 1By de

Rational Self-Doubt - Philosophy

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