2013 - ICC India

ICC BANKING COMMISSION | 2013 GLOBAL RISKS TRADE FINANCE | EXECUTIVE SUMMARYVEXECUTIVE SUMMARYTrade finance is critical for supporting global trade flows, which totalledaround US$18 trillion in 2011. It encompasses a wide range of productsand services that help reduce the risks of cross-border transactions.The ICC Trade Register captures data on trade finance to build a reliableand comprehensive fact base for understanding the real risks withininternational trade. The analysis this year builds on what was done inprevious years to create a view of the risks in trade finance, which is moreconsistent with the Basel methodology (for more information refer toAppendix B).For the 2013 Trade Register report 21 banks have provided data on morethan 15 million short-term trade finance transactions globally. Both datavolume and quality have been increasing year on year and the ICC BankingCommission will continue to work with the participating banks to supportthe Trade Register. The 2012 data set strongly reinforces the hypothesisthat trade finance transactions enjoy a lower than average likelihood ofdefault. That is, in relation to comparable corporate default rates, the traderegister data recorded a lower level of defaulted transactions. However, inorder to arrive at an assessment of expected losses, exposure at defaultand Loss Given Default (LGD) need to be considered. Notwithstandingthe methodological and data challenges, the results indicate some furthersupport of the hypothesis that trade instruments are low risk products,demonstrated by relatively low loss rates.For short-term trade finance, the analysis of the data in the Trade Registershows:FIGURE 1Analysis of short-term trade finance data in the Trade RegisterTOTAL 2008-11TRANSACTIONDEFAULT RATEDEFAULTEDTRANSACTIONLOSS RATEM (IMPLIED,DAYS)SPECIFICTXN-LEVELLOSS RATEImport L/Cs 0.020% 42% 80 0.008%Export Confirmed L/Cs 0.016% 68% 70 0.011%Loans for Import 0.016% 64% 110 0.010%Loans for Export: Bank risk 0.029% 73% 140 0.021%Loans for Export:Corporate risk0.021% 57% 70 0.012%Performance Guarantees 0.034% 85% 110 0.029%Total 0.021% 57% 90 0.012%The total average and the product-level and transaction-level loss rates(farthest right column on the table above) compare favourably with theaverage observed annual credit loss rate of 1.49% for Moody’s customersover the same period.