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Modeling Tools for Environmental Engineers and Scientists

Modeling Tools for Environmental Engineers and Scientists

Modeling Tools for Environmental Engineers and Scientists

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2.2.4 INTERPRETATION AND EVALUATION OF RESULTSIt is during this step that the iteration <strong>and</strong> model refinement process is carriedout. During the iterative process, per<strong>for</strong>mance of the model is comparedagainst the real system to ensure that the objectives are satisfactorily met.This process consists of two main tasks—calibration <strong>and</strong> validation.Task 1: calibrating the model. Even if the fundamental theorems <strong>and</strong> principlesused to build the model described the system truthfully, its per<strong>for</strong>mancemight deviate from the real system because of the inherent assumptions<strong>and</strong> simplifications made in Task 3, Section 2.2.1 <strong>and</strong> the assumptions madein the mathematical analysis. These deviations can be minimized by calibratingthe model to more closely match the real system.In the calibration process, previously observed data from the real systemare used as a “training” set. The model is run repeatedly, adjusting the modelparameters by trial <strong>and</strong> error (within reasonable ranges) until its predictionsunder similar conditions match the training data set as per the goals <strong>and</strong> per<strong>for</strong>mancecriteria established in Section 2.2.1. If not <strong>for</strong> computer-based modeling,this process could be laborious <strong>and</strong> frustrating, especially if the modelincludes several parameters.An efficient way to calibrate a model is to per<strong>for</strong>m preliminary sensitivityanalysis on model outputs to each parameter, one by one. This can identifythe parameters that are most sensitive, so that time <strong>and</strong> other resources can beallocated to those parameters in the calibration process. Some modern computermodeling software packages have sensitivity analysis as a built-in feature,which can further accelerate this step.If the model cannot be calibrated to be within acceptable limits, the modelershould backtrack <strong>and</strong> reevaluate the system characterization <strong>and</strong>/or themodel <strong>for</strong>mulation steps. Fundamental theorems <strong>and</strong> principles as well as themodel <strong>for</strong>mulation <strong>and</strong> their applicability to the system may have to be reexamined,assumptions may have to be checked, <strong>and</strong> variables may have to beevaluated <strong>and</strong> modified, if necessary. This iterative exercise is critical inestablishing the utility value of the model <strong>and</strong> the validity of its applications,such as in making predictions <strong>for</strong> the future.Task 2: validating the model. Unless a model is well calibrated <strong>and</strong> validated,its acceptability will remain limited <strong>and</strong> questionable. There are nost<strong>and</strong>ard benchmarks <strong>for</strong> demonstrating the validity of models, because modelshave to be linked to the systems that they are designed to represent.Preliminary, in<strong>for</strong>mal validation of model per<strong>for</strong>mance can be conductedrelatively easily <strong>and</strong> cost-effectively. One way of checking overall per<strong>for</strong>manceis to ensure that mass balance is maintained through each of the modelruns. Another approach is to set some of the parameters so that a closed algebraicsolution could be obtained by h<strong>and</strong> calculation; then, the model outputscan be compared against the h<strong>and</strong> calculations <strong>for</strong> consistency. For example,© 2002 by CRC Press LLC

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