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Modeling Tools for Environmental Engineers and Scientists

Modeling Tools for Environmental Engineers and Scientists

Modeling Tools for Environmental Engineers and Scientists

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On substituting <strong>for</strong> g <strong>and</strong> j from the above, C 0 = W/αQ, where W is the massrate of discharge into the river. The final model <strong>for</strong> this problem is, there<strong>for</strong>e:Step 4: Interpretation of ResultsC = αWQ e gx <strong>for</strong> x ≤ 0 (2.26)C = αWQ e jx <strong>for</strong> x ≥ 0 (2.27)The calibration <strong>and</strong> validation of the model will be highly problemspecific.Initial interpretations can include simulations, sensitivity analysis,<strong>and</strong> comparison with other similar systems. As a first step in this case, themodel can be run with typical parameters <strong>and</strong> known inputs. The output canbe used to corroborate the per<strong>for</strong>mance of the model against intuition, pastexperience, or literature results to verify that the model outputs generally followthe observed profiles <strong>and</strong> are within reasonable ranges. Because the resultin this case is a function of x rather than a numerical value, it may be usefulto plot the variation of C as a function of x to check if the model is reflectingthe spatial concentration profile.As an example of calibration <strong>and</strong> validation, let us use an artificial data set(adapted from Thomann <strong>and</strong> Mueller, 1987):Distance (mi) –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15Concentration (mg/L) 0.43 1.22 3.50 10.00 4.49 2.02 0.91This data set had been collected on an estuary flowing at 100 cfs with an averagecross-sectional area of 10 × 10 5 sq ft, receiving a waste input of 372,000lbs/day at 0 miles. The decay rate of the waste material was measured to be0.1 day –1 . The dispersion <strong>for</strong> this estuary was estimated to be in the range of2–5 sq miles/day.As a first step, an appropriate value <strong>for</strong> the dispersion coefficient, E, hasto be established. The data from the upstream portion of the estuary are usedto calibrate the model to fit the four data points by running the model withvarious values of E ranging from 2 to 5 sq miles/day. Given the value of E,the remaining three data points may be used to validate the model. These considerationsare illustrated in Figure 2.8, from which the value of E can be estimatedto be 3 sq miles/day. With this value <strong>for</strong> E, the model is capable offitting the upstream data points as well as predicting the downstream datapoints. While acknowledging that the validation <strong>and</strong> calibration exercise inthis example is somewhat academic, the very same procedure is used in practiceto calibrate <strong>and</strong> validate mathematical models.© 2002 by CRC Press LLC

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