download the PDF - Global Solar Technology

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Analyst buzzin PV systems, and PV-Insider havelaunched the PV Balance of SystemsConference & Expo (Berlin, June 28-28) tohelp the industry tackle the technical BoSchallenges that in the current climate canmake the difference between profit and lossfor your plant. Key topics include:• Case studies on how European plantshave achieved optimal performance• System design considerations thatreduce labor, wiring materials andoverall costs• Component manufactures speakon product reliability, componentcombinations and O&M support foryour plant• How intelligent systems can give youessential performance data and forecastpower output failuresAttendees at the Balance of Systems eventthat took place last November in San Jose(run by the same organizers) commentedthat this event was “extremely valuable ingaining an overall view of engineering andfinancial challenges applicable to optimizingPV BoS,” and others that “the conferencewas a great format to start talking detailsabout how we can truly reduce the overallcost of PV... a win-win opportunity!” TheEuropean event promises to be even morecritical for PV installers and EPCs facedwith substantial challenges in light of theFiT changes.Bringing together key industrystakeholders including EPCs, installers,developers, manufacturers, financers andutilities to meet, learn and do business, thismeeting will zone into every element ofsuccessful Balance of System engineering.Full information is available at www.pv-insider.com/balanceofsystems. •Japan nuclear crisis boostsEuropean Solar MarketsThe earthquake-related nuclear disasterin Japan could prove to be a boon to thephotovoltaic (PV) industry in Germanyand Italy, the world’s two largest solarmarkets, which have become sensitizedto the dangers of a nuclear meltdown,according to new IHS iSuppli research.“Reaction to the Fukushima nuclearcrisis has been swift in Germany andItaly,” said Henning Wicht, senior directorand principal analyst for photovoltaicsystems at IHS. “Germany respondedquickly by shutting down seven of itsoldest reactors, potentially boosting theprospects for renewable energy in thecountry. Meanwhile, Italy indicated itmight upgrade the role of solar within thecountry and accept higher volumes of sunpoweredenergy.”In the wake of the Japanese disaster,debate quickly flared up on an appropriatecourse of action and energy policy inGermany—the world’s largest solarmarket—although some of the responsewas thought to be political posturingand an attempt to influence forthcomingregional elections.By the third quarter, it will be apparentwhether the German government willproceed with a rapid exit path fromnuclear power. Assuming that a decisionto abandon nuclear energy is reached,renewable energy will be promoted evenmore strongly, IHS predicts.Wind dominates current publicdiscussions, but solar energy possibly couldbenefit as well. One possible course ofaction that could benefit the solar industrywould boost the annual PV installationforecast. Germany likely could increase theannual PV installation target for after 2010to 5 GW, up from 3.5 GW now, increasingthe long-term outlook for solar.Solar seasonsDespite potential impacts on the long-termoutlook, PV installations in Germany in2011 still are expected to follow a similarpattern to that of 2010—with the exceptionof a four-week delay this year, becauseprices didn’t fall fast enough to enableinvestment conditions for the Germanmarket to take off. Installation growthwill accelerate in April and then peak inJune, followed by a cooling-down periodin the third quarter. The fourth quarteris expected to be strong again, just beforenew regulations and feed-in tariffs (FIT)are applied in 2012, IHS iSuppli researchindicates.All told, PV installations in Germany in2011 are projected to reach 7.2 (GW), down3.5 percent from 7.4 GW in 2010. Growththis year will oscillate, with moderateexpansions in the first and third quartersalternating with very strong increases inthe second and fourth quarters, as shownin the attached figure.Italy in a bindIn Italy, the second-largest solar market inthe world after Germany, the governmentannounced a hold on all plans for futurenuclear power stations during the next 12months while it re-evaluates the role ofatomic energy for the country.Ironically, this has occurred at a timewhen PV demand in Italy has come to a nearhalt because of the government’s actions.The Italian government’s announcementon March 3—eight days prior to theJapanese disaster—that it would launch anew FIT program with fewer incentivesby early June came as a shock to the localsolar industry, causing installation activityto stop immediately. Solar investors in Italyexpressed concerns about not being able tomeet the end-of-May deadline for any PVinstallations that they were to undertake,for fear of running afoul of the expectednew guidelines. According to unofficialreports, the annual cap would be placed at 1GW, and ground installations on farmlandwould be limited to just 1 megawatt in size.As a result, installation activity thatwas at a significant level in January andFebruary for large Italian solar plantshas all but stopped, and the only projectscontinuing at this point are those that arealmost finished. Meanwhile, resistance tothe government’s new plans has gainedsignificant momentum, even though Romestill has to negotiate the final scheme,expected sometime in mid-April.With both sides at loggerheads, thepressure created by the solar lobby inItaly likely will force the government toreconsider its new plans so that they do notpush through, IHS believes. Furthermore,the Fukushima incident will lead to a newassessment of nuclear and solar energy inthe country. Not including the possibleeffect of the Japan crisis in the months tocome, the Italian PV market is expectedto develop very positively in 2011, with anexpected cap of 1.5 to 2.0 GW from 2012onward.Learn more about the latestdevelopments in the PV industry with theIHS report entitled PV: Navigating a NewRound of Policy Changes. •PV equipment spending of $15.2bn in 2011 at risk from marketdownturnFollowing a year when global photovoltaic(PV) market demand grew 139 percent, PVcell manufacturers have embarked uponaggressive expansion plans in support ofambitious shipment guidance for 2011.Consequently, the scale of expansionsannounced would create a $15.2 billionrevenue opportunity for PV equipmentsuppliers during 2011, an increase of41 percent Y/Y, according to the latestSolarbuzz® PV Equipment Quarterlyreport.30 – Global Solar Technology – June 2011 www.globalsolartechnology.com
Analyst buzzWhile Y/Y growth for c-Si equipmentspending (including ingot, wafer, cell andmodule stages) in 2011 would amount to31 percent, thin-film spending would growby an incredible 71 percent. Underpinningthis thin-film growth is a resurgence ofinvestments in a-Si and CIGS technologies,which account for 78 percent of plannedthin-film capacity expansions.Tier 1 expansions remain dominatedby aggressive schedules announced bypublicly-listed Chinese c-Si producers,followed by cell producers in Taiwan andthin-film leader First Solar. Examplesof revised year-end nameplate capacitytargets include JA Solar to 3 GW, TrinaSolar to 1.9 GW, Neo Solar Power to 1.8GW, and Jinko Solar to 1.5 GW. In thepast 12 months, manufacturers in Chinaand Taiwan accounted for 82% of the $3.6billion revenues allocated to new c-Si cellequipment worldwide.Adding to the c-Si expansion activity,thin-film manufacturing capacity isscheduled to grow by 70 percent betweenQ1’11 and Q1’12, as the second thin-filminvestment cycle draws to a conclusion.Within this period, an incredible 65 thinfilmexpansion phases are projected to beimplemented, with a combined nameplatecapacity of 4.8 GW.According to Finlay Colville, senioranalyst at Solarbuzz, “Fab investmentsduring 2011 are providing opportunitiesfor the PV equipment supply-chain,reflected in tool backlogs at the $1 billionlevel reported during Q1’11 by equipmentleaders Applied Materials, Centrotherm,GT Solar and Meyer Burger. While suppliersof choice to tier-1 manufacturers have beenforced to increase monthly tool shipments,tier-2 c-Si and thin-film investments areoffering significant revenue upside foremerging equipment suppliers.”Capacity expansions are consistentwith leading cell manufacturers guiding2011 shipment growth rates of 55 percent.However, market demand is forecast toincrease by only 12 percent this year, asincentive tariff cuts are implementedacross major European markets. Thisimbalance will have a profound impact onthe equipment supply-chain, starting witha reset of capacity growth plans during2H’11. With tool lead times typically 3-6months, the full impact of these changeswill be felt hardest during 2012.Equipment spending downturn aheadDuring Q1’11, PV equipment spendingreached another quarterly high of $3.7billion. The current PV spending cyclewill peak in Q2’11, followed by a sharpdecline from Q4’11, as the industry resetsits expansion plans to meet the pendingmarket downturn in 2H’11. For leadingequipment suppliers aligned with tier-1expansion phases, this will translate to animmediate decline in new order intake.However, new opportunities will thenemerge for equipment suppliers of nextgenerationfab tools, as high-efficiencyroadmaps are reprioritized. Q-Cellsrecently announced plans to upgradetheir 1.1 GW of cell capacity during 2H’11with front-end rear-side enhancements,providing an early indicator of roadmapdeliverables. High-efficiency c-Si variantsare forecast to comprise 35 percent of allc-Si cell capacity by Q1’12. Acceleratingnext-generation concepts will facilitateadoption rates of new tool types, such asion implanters being championed todayby semiconductor-equipment marketleader Varian Semiconductor EquipmentAssociates.As existing backlogs are shipped during1H’11, strong Q1’11 revenues will beannounced shortly. However, the leadingindicator will be new orders received, asPV producers review their plans for 2012.Further expansion by thin-film entrantswill depend upon the success of initial fabsramped up in 2011 and 2012. However, along queue of hungry investors eyeingup the PV industry will likely keep thisfragmented segment financed for sometime.As the equipment spending cycleapproaches its downturn in 2H’11, newchallenges will emerge for tool suppliers.This is most vividly captured within theUS$750 million segment for PECVDtools used to deposit passivation layersand anti-reflecting coatings during c-Sicell formation. Meyer Burger’s proposedtakeover of Roth and Rau comes ahead ofa likely drop-off in PECVD order intakeas Centrotherm increases its market-share,Jusung Engineering is buoyed up followinga significant win at a top-10 cell producer,and Orbotech’s subsidiary OLT Solarprepares to deliver its first beta-site tool inQ2’11. •New group purchasing modelslashes cost of solar powerAs the solar market in the UnitedStates surpasses $6 billion, a new reportdemonstrates how governments andbusinesses can save money by joiningtogether to buy solar power. The report,“Purchasing Power: Best Practices Guidefor Collaborative Solar Procurement,” wasissued by the World Resources Institute(WRI) and Joint Venture: Silicon ValleyNetwork (Joint Venture) at the U.S.Department of Energy’s Solar AmericaCities Annual Meeting. Collaborative solarpurchasing allows governments, businessesor universities in the same region tocollectively negotiate solar power contracts.The “Purchasing Power” guidepresents an innovative approach to solarpower purchasing that can yield 10 to 15percent lower costs and save 75 percent ofadministrative time and fees, while helpingparticipants negotiate better contract termsto save money in the long run.“This is the ‘Groupon’ model ofsolar purchasing,” said Jenna Goodward,associate, WRI, and co-author of thereport.“It provides the tools smallbusinesses and local governments needto save time and money by flexing theircollective purchasing power. Our goal isto make it easier to buy solar power, helpinterested groups save money, and promotegreater adoption of renewable energynationwide.”The 2011 Solar America Cities AnnualMeeting, April 26-28, 2011, will focuson two themes: reducing key barriers tosolar market penetration and removingadministrative costs and hurdles. The“Purchasing Power” guide providesa straightforward solution to thesechallenges. A 12-step strategy walks publicand private sector users through the processfrom recruiting regional participants toprocurement, to negotiating deals, andfinally to celebrating success.“It is crucial to break down barriersthat keep small businesses and localgovernments from gaining access torenewable energy,” said Rachel Massaro,associate director of Climate Initiatives forJoint Venture and co-author of the report.“The new ‘Purchasing Power’ guide offersan easy-to-follow, 12-step process that canlead to much broader market penetrationfor solar power.”WRI and Joint Venture developed theguide after piloting the first collaborativesolar procurement projects in California.In Santa Clara County, the SiliconValley Collaborative Renewable EnergyProcurement Projectrepresented ninelocal government agencies and 70 solarinstallations across more than 40 locations,totaling more than 14 MW of power atpeak capacity.The “Purchasing Power” model isincreasingly gaining popularity as severalgroups in California and Washington, D.C.begin collaborating toward group solarpurchases. •www.globalsolartechnology.comGlobal Solar Technology – June 2011 – 31
Page 1: The Global Journal for Solar and PV
Page 7 and 8: THINFABEconomically ViableSolar Pow
Page 9 and 10: Thin film silicon technologyInstall
Page 12 and 13: The key to ‘printing’ CIGS: tig
Page 14 and 15: Solar thermal parabolic trough econ
Page 16 and 17: Structural adhesives and the solar
Page 18 and 19: Structural adhesives and the solar
Page 20: Market is murky on FiT cuts, natura
Page 23 and 24: Market is murky on FiT cuts, natura
Page 30: Intersolar EuropeShow previewInters
Page 37: Directing solar energy to storagepo
Page 40 and 41: Industry newsIndustry newsContinued
Page 42 and 43: TitleInternational diary8-10 June 2
Page 44: TitleHeraeus PV silver paste.Make y

download the PDF - Global Solar Technology

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?