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Analyst buzzWhile Y/Y growth for c-Si equipmentspending (including ingot, wafer, cell andmodule stages) in 2011 would amount to31 percent, thin-film spending would growby an incredible 71 percent. Underpinningthis thin-film growth is a resurgence ofinvestments in a-Si and CIGS technologies,which account for 78 percent of plannedthin-film capacity expansions.Tier 1 expansions remain dominatedby aggressive schedules announced bypublicly-listed Chinese c-Si producers,followed by cell producers in Taiwan andthin-film leader First Solar. Examplesof revised year-end nameplate capacitytargets include JA Solar to 3 GW, TrinaSolar to 1.9 GW, Neo Solar Power to 1.8GW, and Jinko Solar to 1.5 GW. In thepast 12 months, manufacturers in Chinaand Taiwan accounted for 82% of the $3.6billion revenues allocated to new c-Si cellequipment worldwide.Adding to the c-Si expansion activity,thin-film manufacturing capacity isscheduled to grow by 70 percent betweenQ1’11 and Q1’12, as the second thin-filminvestment cycle draws to a conclusion.Within this period, an incredible 65 thinfilmexpansion phases are projected to beimplemented, with a combined nameplatecapacity of 4.8 GW.According to Finlay Colville, senioranalyst at Solarbuzz, “Fab investmentsduring 2011 are providing opportunitiesfor the PV equipment supply-chain,reflected in tool backlogs at the $1 billionlevel reported during Q1’11 by equipmentleaders Applied Materials, Centrotherm,GT Solar and Meyer Burger. While suppliersof choice to tier-1 manufacturers have beenforced to increase monthly tool shipments,tier-2 c-Si and thin-film investments areoffering significant revenue upside foremerging equipment suppliers.”Capacity expansions are consistentwith leading cell manufacturers guiding2011 shipment growth rates of 55 percent.However, market demand is forecast toincrease by only 12 percent this year, asincentive tariff cuts are implementedacross major European markets. Thisimbalance will have a profound impact onthe equipment supply-chain, starting witha reset of capacity growth plans during2H’11. With tool lead times typically 3-6months, the full impact of these changeswill be felt hardest during 2012.Equipment spending downturn aheadDuring Q1’11, PV equipment spendingreached another quarterly high of $3.7billion. The current PV spending cyclewill peak in Q2’11, followed by a sharpdecline from Q4’11, as the industry resetsits expansion plans to meet the pendingmarket downturn in 2H’11. For leadingequipment suppliers aligned with tier-1expansion phases, this will translate to animmediate decline in new order intake.However, new opportunities will thenemerge for equipment suppliers of nextgenerationfab tools, as high-efficiencyroadmaps are reprioritized. Q-Cellsrecently announced plans to upgradetheir 1.1 GW of cell capacity during 2H’11with front-end rear-side enhancements,providing an early indicator of roadmapdeliverables. High-efficiency c-Si variantsare forecast to comprise 35 percent of allc-Si cell capacity by Q1’12. Acceleratingnext-generation concepts will facilitateadoption rates of new tool types, such asion implanters being championed todayby semiconductor-equipment marketleader Varian Semiconductor EquipmentAssociates.As existing backlogs are shipped during1H’11, strong Q1’11 revenues will beannounced shortly. However, the leadingindicator will be new orders received, asPV producers review their plans for 2012.Further expansion by thin-film entrantswill depend upon the success of initial fabsramped up in 2011 and 2012. However, along queue of hungry investors eyeingup the PV industry will likely keep thisfragmented segment financed for sometime.As the equipment spending cycleapproaches its downturn in 2H’11, newchallenges will emerge for tool suppliers.This is most vividly captured within theUS$750 million segment for PECVDtools used to deposit passivation layersand anti-reflecting coatings during c-Sicell formation. Meyer Burger’s proposedtakeover of Roth and Rau comes ahead ofa likely drop-off in PECVD order intakeas Centrotherm increases its market-share,Jusung Engineering is buoyed up followinga significant win at a top-10 cell producer,and Orbotech’s subsidiary OLT Solarprepares to deliver its first beta-site tool inQ2’11. •New group purchasing modelslashes cost of solar powerAs the solar market in the UnitedStates surpasses $6 billion, a new reportdemonstrates how governments andbusinesses can save money by joiningtogether to buy solar power. The report,“Purchasing Power: Best Practices Guidefor Collaborative Solar Procurement,” wasissued by the World Resources Institute(WRI) and Joint Venture: Silicon ValleyNetwork (Joint Venture) at the U.S.Department of Energy’s Solar AmericaCities Annual Meeting. Collaborative solarpurchasing allows governments, businessesor universities in the same region tocollectively negotiate solar power contracts.The “Purchasing Power” guidepresents an innovative approach to solarpower purchasing that can yield 10 to 15percent lower costs and save 75 percent ofadministrative time and fees, while helpingparticipants negotiate better contract termsto save money in the long run.“This is the ‘Groupon’ model ofsolar purchasing,” said Jenna Goodward,associate, WRI, and co-author of thereport.“It provides the tools smallbusinesses and local governments needto save time and money by flexing theircollective purchasing power. Our goal isto make it easier to buy solar power, helpinterested groups save money, and promotegreater adoption of renewable energynationwide.”The 2011 Solar America Cities AnnualMeeting, April 26-28, 2011, will focuson two themes: reducing key barriers tosolar market penetration and removingadministrative costs and hurdles. The“Purchasing Power” guide providesa straightforward solution to thesechallenges. A 12-step strategy walks publicand private sector users through the processfrom recruiting regional participants toprocurement, to negotiating deals, andfinally to celebrating success.“It is crucial to break down barriersthat keep small businesses and localgovernments from gaining access torenewable energy,” said Rachel Massaro,associate director of Climate Initiatives forJoint Venture and co-author of the report.“The new ‘Purchasing Power’ guide offersan easy-to-follow, 12-step process that canlead to much broader market penetrationfor solar power.”WRI and Joint Venture developed theguide after piloting the first collaborativesolar procurement projects in California.In Santa Clara County, the SiliconValley Collaborative Renewable EnergyProcurement Projectrepresented ninelocal government agencies and 70 solarinstallations across more than 40 locations,totaling more than 14 MW of power atpeak capacity.The “Purchasing Power” model isincreasingly gaining popularity as severalgroups in California and Washington, D.C.begin collaborating toward group solarpurchases. •www.globalsolartechnology.comGlobal Solar Technology – June 2011 – 31