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Miss ConceptionsMISCONCEPTIONSMiss Conception puts it “straight”“Miss Conception” rectifies incorrect impressions concerning hot dip galvanizing.The world is running out of zinc.True or false?From time to time, some with littleknowledge of zinc mining claim theworld “will run out of zinc” in the nextfew decades. Nothing could be furtherfrom the truth.The fact is that despite greatlyincreased consumption of zincproduced from ore in recent years,increases in zinc ore reserves and theore reserve base have grown more thanthis increased consumption, and thereis more zinc available to the worldtoday than at any other time in history.If the doomsayers were right,we’d be running close to emptynow – but they were wrong!The doomsayers take the view that theway you measure the remaining life ofzinc ore reserves is to take presentreserves and divide that by annualmining production to yield years left.That static, alarmist, analysis is whollybelied by the objective facts.The International Lead Zinc StudyGroup (ILZSG) 1 reports 6 798 000metric tons (‘mt’) of zinc minedworldwide in 1994 (ILZSG Bulletin, Feb.2008, Table 56). According to the U.S.Geological Survey (USGS), in 1994 theworld’s zinc reserves 2 were140 000 000 mt (Mineral CommoditySummaries, Jan. 1996).Therefore, assuming that everythinghad stayed the same from 1995through 2005, the world would havemined an additional 75 009 000 mtof zinc, leaving reserves of only74 869 000 mt. In other words, overhalf of the 1994 reserves would havebeen erased – forever – and the worldwould be looking at approximately 11more years of mining until all the zincreserves were gone – forever. But thatis not what happened.As distinct proof, the USGS reportsthat 2005 zinc reserves were not74 869 000 mt as the doomsayerswould have had it, but were instead220 000 000 mt – a 57% increase overthe 1994 level and approximately triplethe doomsday scenario 3 (Id., Jan. 2007).Despite increased mining,reserve levels continue toincreaseMining actually increased significantlyin recent years. In 2006, according toILZSG, 10 469 000 mt of zinc weremined worldwide – 53% greater thanthe amount mined in 1994 (ILZSGBulletin, Feb. 2008, Table 56). Despite thissteady increase in the amount minedannually since 1994, reserves stillincreased by over 50%, whollyundercutting the shortage argument.Thus, the argument that the world wasrunning out of zinc on a static modelwas wrong, and the notion that theworld is running out of zinc because ofincreasing consumption is wrong, too.Improved commodity pricesare responsible for a good bitof the new reservesIt is a given that profitableoperations make more moneyavailable for exploration anddevelopment. And it is also a giventhat mineral commodity prices weredepressed for a good bit of the lastten years. For example, in 2002 theaverage zinc price on the LondonMetal Exchange was $778.38 mt(USGS, Mineral Industry Surveys, Zinc,Table 1, Oct. 2003). In 2006, bycontrast, the average price was $3274.42 (USGS, Mineral IndustrySurveys, Zinc, Table 1, Dec. 2007).As a result of the low price for zincand other metals, explorationbudgets suffered. “Driven by surgingcommodity prices, 2005 expectedexpenditures for mineral explorationreached a level not seen in nearly adecade, according to findings in theMay 2006 edition of the Society forMining, Metallurgy and Exploration’s(SME) Mining Engineering.” (NationalMining Association, Mining Week, May26, 2006). And this continued in2006:“Metals Economics Group’s (MEG)analysis of 2006 worldwideexploration budgets shows anincrease to US$7.5 billion this year –the fourth consecutive yearlyincrease since the bottom of thecycle in 2002…”“Years of stagnant and decliningmetals prices in the late 1990s andthe resulting lack of exploration andmine development…” (CommoditiesNow, Dec. 2006, 1).Additionally, what this clearly showsis that higher price levels for zinchave not resulted in a lowering ofzinc reserves, to the contrary. In2002, the recent price trough for zinc,34 Hot Dip Galvanizing Today Volume 5 Issue 4 2008
Miss Conceptionsreserves were 200 000 000 mt (USGS,Mineral Commodity Summaries, Jan.2003). From then until 2005, despiteincreased prices and increasedconsumption, reserves grew, asindicated above.Improved recycling has alsohelped reduce demand for ore,and will continue to growZinc in the form of scrap and othersecondary materials constitutes anaboveground mine, reducing thedemand for natural ore to producerefined zinc. In 1996, 509 000 mt ofrefined zinc were produced fromsecondary materials; in 2006 thatnumber had grown to 551 000 mt.(ILZSG, Lead and Zinc Statistics, Table40, Jan. 1998, Dec. 2007). And, as morezinc comes into the recycling streambecause of increased consumption,this number will continue to grow.SummaryZinc reserves have increaseddramatically in recent years despiteincreased mining and consumptionof zinc, and, until, recently, despitelow zinc prices shrinking explorationand development budgets. Somehealthy years to restore thosebudgets plus increased recycling ofzinc-containing materials willcontinue to ensure that the world hasplenty of zinc for many, many yearsto come.1 The International Lead Zinc StudyGroup (ILZSG) is a non-ferrous metalsintergovernmental organisation createdby the United Nations in 1959 with 29member countries accounting for about90% of total worldwide lead and zinctonnage. The Study Group’s mainresponsibility is to maintaintransparency of production, usage andforeign trades for concentrates andrefined metals through statistics, studiesand wide-ranging consultation.2 ‘Reserves’ are defined by the USGS as,“That part of the reserve base whichcould be economically extracted orproduced at the time of determination.Reserves include only recoverablematerials; thus, terms such as‘extractable reserves’ and ‘recoverablereserves’ are redundant and are not apart of this classification system.” TheUSGS also says, “The reserve baseincludes those resources that arecurrently economic (reserves),marginally economic (marginalreserves), and some of those that arecurrently subeconomic (subeconomicreserves).3 Moreover, the world reserve base hadincreased from 330 000 000 mt to460 000 000 mt.The Association wishes to thank Rob Whiteof IZASA for this contribution.Specialists inhot dip galvanizingwith quick turnaround timesHOT DIP GALVANIZINGTO APPROVED QUALITYSTANDARDS20 Dekenah StreetAlrode 1449P.O. Box 124581Alrode 1451Tel.: (011) 908-3411(011) 908-3418(011) 908-3420Fax: (011) 908-3329Volume 5 Issue 4 2008 Hot Dip Galvanizing Today 35
Page 1: 2008 Volume 5 Issue 4HOT DIP GALVAN
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Page 41 and 42: Case StudyNo. 16/2008Case StudyRais

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