2009 City/Municipal Poverty Incidence of the Philippines ... - NSCB

2009 City/Municipal Poverty Incidence ofthe Philippines Based on SAEZita VJ Albacea, PhDProject ConsultantandRomulo A. Virola, PhDProject Technical Adviser1National Dissemination Forumon the 2009 City and Municipal Level Poverty EstimatesDissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012Crowne Plaza, July 30, 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Outline of the PresentationI. Background/Rationale of the StudyII. Small Area Estimation MethodologyIII. Resulting Regional Models Used forPredictionIV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of PovertyIncidence for Cities and Municipalitiesin the PhilippinesV. Lessons Learned2Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. Background/Rationale of the Study• Philippine Poverty Statistics are released by the NationalStatistical Coordination Board (NSCB) every three years atthe regional and provincial levels of disaggregation. Latestestimates are for 2009.• For 2009, poverty estimates for all 17 regions, which wereobtained directly from the results of the Family Income andExpenditure Survey (FIES), are reliable (having coefficientsof variation (CVs) of at most 10%).• In the case of the 2009 provincial poverty statistics,estimates of 64 of the 80 provinces (80%), which were alsodirectly obtained using the FIES data set, are less reliable(having CVs greater than10%).- One of the reasons for less reliable estimates includethe small number of observations in some provinces.3Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

2009 Official RegionalPoverty Incidence2009 Official ProvincialPoverty Incidence4Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

I. Background/Rationale of the Study• As not all cities/municipalities are represented inthe FIES and due to concerns on the reliability ofestimates, no official city or municipal levelestimates are generated directly from the FIES.• In 2005, the NSCB with funding assistance from theWorld Bank ASEM Trust Fund, conducted a povertymapping project using small area estimationmethodology as part of the Philippine StatisticalSystem’s continuing effort to respond to the growingneed for lower level disaggregation of informationon the poor.• As an output of this Project, poverty estimates for allcities and municipalities of the country for 2000were released in November 2005.5Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Small Area Estimation Methodology• The Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) Methodologywas used in 2005 to generate the 2000 City andMunicipal level Poverty Statistics2000 Family Income andExpenditure Survey2000 Labor Force Survey2000 Census of Populationand Housing2000 City andMunicipal LevelPoverty Statisticsbased on SAE• poverty estimates for all cities and municipalities of thecountry for 2000 were released in November 2005 by theNSCB.6Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

II. Small Area Estimation Methodology• NSCB embarked on the Intercensal Updating of SAEProject in 2006 through the World Bank Trust Fund forStatistical Capacity Building (WB TFSCB)2000 SAE 2003 SAE2000 FamilyIncome andExpenditureSurvey2000 LaborForce Survey2000 Census ofPopulation andHousing2003 FamilyIncome andExpenditureSurvey2003 Labor ForceSurvey2000 Census ofPopulation andHousingTimeinvariant(i.e.,variablesthat maybeconsidered“stable”over time)7Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Resulting Regional Models Used for PredictionAdjusted R 2(in percent)Number ofPredictorsNumber ofObservationsNCR CAR R1 R2 R3 R4A R4B R5 R6 R735 47 35 45 38 40 44 43 44 469 9 5 8 9 7 5 7 9 74,276 1,566 2,265 1,890 3,027 3,647 1,661 2,191 2,560 2,513Adjusted R 2(in percent)Number ofPredictorsNumber ofObservationsR8 R9 R10 R11 R12 ARMM CARAGA45 49 48 46 47 29 417 6 8 8 5 8 81,985 1,642 1,756 2,131 1,923 1,567 1,5618Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Resulting Regional Models Used for PredictionHousehold CharacteristicsProportion of all/male /female household members who have at leastcollege educationProportion of male /female household members who are at least highschool graduatesNo of Models10 / 2 / 4Proportion of male household members who are at least finished grade 5 13 / 2Presence or absence of a son/daughter of the household head in thehouseholdThe household has• extended family members living with them• household head who is married• household head without a spouseThe housing unit where the household resides has• roof made of strong materials (brick, stone, wood, galvanized iron)• wall made of light materials (bamboo, sawali, cogon, nipa)• roof made of light materials (cogon, nipa, anahaw)• wall made of makeshift materials• roof made of salvaged materials7131543119Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

III. Resulting Regional Models Used for Prediction10Barangay CharacteristicsThe barangay where the household resides• has at least 50% of its at least 10 yrs old population are farmers, farmlaborers, fishermen, loggers and forest product gatherers;• has seaport• is part of the town/city proper of former poblacion of the municipality, orpoblacion/city district• has telephone system• has cellular phone signal• has public plaza• is accessible to national highway• is urban• has a market place or building where trading activities are carried on at leastonce a week• has a puericulture center/barangay health centerAverage number of financial establishments with less than 10 employees in thebarangayAverage number of manufacturing establishments with less than 10 employeesin the barangayAverage number of commercial establishments with less than 10 employees inthe barangayAverage number of lodging establishments with less than 10 employees in thebarangayAverage number of service establishments with less than 10 employees in theDissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbaceabarangayand RAVirola/30 July 2012No. of ModelsNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD911111111112111

III. Resulting Regional Models Used for PredictionBarangay CharacteristicsAverage proportion of household members residing in the barangay whoare between 15 to 24 years oldAverage proportion of household members residing in the barangay whoare between 25 to 60 years oldAverage proportion of household members residing in the barangay whoare children of the household headAverage number of household members residing in the barangay who areworking as professionalsAverage number of household members residing in the barangay who areworking in trade and trade-related workersAverage number of household members residing in the barangay who areworking as plant and machine operators and assemblersAverage number of household members residing in the barangay who areworking as officials of government, and special interst organizations,corporate executives, managers, managing proprietors and supervisorsAverage number of household members residing in the barangay who areworking as clerksAverage number of household members residing in the barangay who arefarmers, farm laborers, fishermen, loggers and forest product gatherers;No. of Models2224311110Average family size in the barangay 1011Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of Poverty IncidenceDistribution of poverty incidences among population for the1,643 cities and municipalitiesPovertyincidenceamongpopulationSAEFrequency Percent < RCFBinondo,ManilaSiayan,Zamboanga delNorte< =25 578 35 1225-50 816 50 850 20 40 60 80Poverty Incidence> 50 249 15 100MEAN STD DEV MINIMUM MAXIMUM32.57 16.281.03(Binondo, Manila)79.86(Siayan, Zamboanga del Norte)12Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of Poverty IncidenceDistribution of the coefficients of variation of the povertyincidences among population for the 1,643 cities andmunicipalitiesCoefficient of VariationEsperanza, Agusan del SurFreqPercent < RCFErmita, Manila< =10 619 38 3811-20 822 50 88> 20 202 12 1000 20 40 60 80Coefficient of VariationMEAN STD DEV MINIMUM MAXIMUM13.60 7.814.41(Esperanza, Agusan del Sur)68.71(Ermita, Manila)13Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of Poverty Incidence14Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of Poverty Incidence20032009City/Municipal-level Poverty Estimates (Based on SAE)15Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of Poverty Incidence20032009NORTHERN SAMARSAMAR (WESTERN)BILIRANEASTERN SAMARLEYTE1.5 - 18SOUTHERN LEYTECity/Municipal-level Poverty Estimates(Based on SAE) of Eastern Visayas16Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of Poverty Incidence2009 Poorest Municipalities Based on SAERank Region Province MunicipalityPovertyIncidenceStandardErrorCoefficient ofVariation1 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE SIAYAN 79.86 4.53 5.672 CAR ABRA BUCLOC 77.18 10.05 13.023 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE BALIGUIAN 75.31 4.86 6.454 XI DAVAO DEL SUR JOSE ABAD SANTOS 72.32 4.06 5.615 XI DAVAO DEL SUR SARANGANI 72.12 4.95 6.866 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE GODOD 71.06 6.84 9.627 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE GUTALAC 70.41 4.63 6.578 ARMM MAGUINDANAO PANDAG 70.10 8.60 12.279 X LANAO DEL NORTE TAGOLOAN 69.38 5.76 8.3010 IX ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY MABUHAY 68.86 5.68 8.2511 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE MANUKAN 68.24 5.40 7.9112 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE SIBUCO 68.21 5.24 7.6813 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE JOSE DALMAN (PONOT) 68.00 5.87 8.6314 X LANAO DEL NORTE NUNUNGAN 67.87 4.13 6.0715 CAR BENGUET KIBUNGAN 67.86 11.31 16.6716 ARMM MAGUINDANAO GUINDULUNGAN 67.68 6.81 10.0617 X LANAO DEL NORTE MUNAI 67.47 3.62 5.3618 X LANAO DEL NORTE TANGCAL 67.36 4.30 6.3819 CAR ABRA LACUB 67.23 9.53 14.1720 ARMM MAGUINDANAO GEN. S. K. PENDATUN 67.12 7.12 10.6117Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

IV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of Poverty Incidence2009 Poorest Municipalities Based on SAE18Rank Region Province MunicipalityPovertyIncidenceStandardErrorCoefficientof Variation21 ARMM LANAO DEL SUR TAGOLOAN II 67.08 10.21 15.2222 VII BOHOL PILAR 67.08 3.86 5.75PANGLIMA ESTINO (NEW23 ARMM SULUPANAMAO) 66.78 8.44 12.6424 X LANAO DEL NORTE POONA PIAGAPO 66.75 3.89 5.8325 CARAGA AGUSAN DEL SUR LA PAZ 66.71 3.94 5.9126 XI DAVAO DEL SUR DON MARCELINO 66.54 5.36 8.0627 IX ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY TALUSAN 66.52 7.83 11.7728 ARMM MAGUINDANAO KABUNTALAN (TUMBAO) 66.48 6.87 10.3329 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE PRES. MANUEL A. ROXAS 66.34 4.74 7.1430 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE BACUNGAN (LEON T. POSTIGO) 65.96 6.21 9.4131 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE KALAWIT 65.83 6.80 10.3332 IX ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE SERGIO OSMEÑA SR. 65.80 5.55 8.4333 X MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL DON VICTORIANO CHIONGBIAN 65.66 5.15 7.8434 ARMM MAGUINDANAO PAGLAT 65.43 8.07 12.3335 VIII NORTHERN SAMAR SILVINO LOBOS 64.78 3.83 5.9136 VII BOHOL SAN ISIDRO 64.01 4.84 7.5637 XI DAVAO DEL SUR MALITA 63.82 3.51 5.5038 VII BOHOL BIEN UNIDO 63.72 3.98 6.2539 XII SULTAN KUDARAT PALIMBANG 63.68 3.95 6.20Dissemination 40 Forum IX of the ZAMBOANGA 2009 SAE DEL of NORTE Poverty Statistics SIOCON NATIONAL STATISTICAL 63.56 COORDINATION 5.83 BOARD 9.17ZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012

IV. 2009 Intercensal SAE of Poverty IncidenceAmong the 40 identified poorestmunicipalities in 2003 based on SAEoOnly 14 of these 40 are found in the 40poorest municipalities in 2009oAll have lower poverty incidences in2009oOnly 10 of these 40 municipalitiesexhibit an insignificant changeoThe remaining 30 exhibit significantdecrease in the poverty incidence.19Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

V. Lessons Learned• The SAE methodology employed in theProject made use of the Elbers, Lanjouw,and Lanjouw (ELL) methodology developedby the WB was modified to be used duringnon-censal years.• The modified ELL method was able toprovide municipality and city povertyincidence estimates for all municipalitiesand cities.• The estimates obtained can be used notonly by the local government but also bythe national government in pinpointing themunicipalities in the province that needsthe poverty alleviation program.20Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Maraming Salamat po!URL: http://www.nscb.gov.phe-mail: info@nscb.gov.ph21Dissemination Forum of the 2009 SAE of Poverty StatisticsZVJAlbacea and RAVirola/30 July 2012NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD