EUROPEAN TOURISM 2010 – Trends & Prospects - VisitBritain

8 European Tourism in 2010: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2010)There has also been a broader weakening in financial markets, with stockprices down around 10% in Q2 so far. Interbank spreads have risen, and overallfinancial stress levels are at their highest for six months.The May US employment report, which showed a worryingly weak level ofprivate job growth, has also fuelled double-dip fears. More generally, weakincome growth in the major economies leaves consumption vulnerable to anyrenewed loss of confidence linked to financial market developments.Nevertheless, it looks premature to be calling for a double-dip global recession.Financial stress levels remain well below the levels seen during the crisis, andthe widening of interbank spreads is modest.Real economy indicators also still mostly point to robust growth. Asian growth ismoderating after an exceptional Q1, but Chinese May exports were strong andthis month sees a sizeable upgrade to our Japan growth forecast. Industry alsocontinues to post solid results in the US and Europe. The financial picture willhave to deteriorate considerably further before a major impact on global growthbecomes likely.Consumption isvulnerable to a loss inconsumer confidence.Indicators still point torobust growth acrossmost of the world.Summary of International Forecasts2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Real GDPNorth AmericaUnited States 0.4 -2.4 3.2 3.7 3.5 3.0Canada 0.5 -2.5 3.5 3.2 4.3 4.1EuropeEurozone 0.4 -4.1 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.1Germany 1.0 -4.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.2France 0.1 -2.5 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.1Italy -1.3 -5.1 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.6UK 0.5 -4.9 1.1 2.3 2.9 3.5EU27 0.7 -4.2 0.9 1.6 2.3 2.6AsiaJapan -1.2 -5.3 2.8 1.4 2.1 2.0Emerging Asia, excl Japan 6.0 4.9 8.2 7.4 7.7 7.6China 9.6 8.7 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.9India 7.4 6.7 8.2 8.3 9.0 8.8World 1.6 -2.0 3.4 3.6 4.0 3.9World 2005 PPPs 2.9 -0.8 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.8World trade 3.0 -13.0 11.6 7.1 8.2 8.0© European Travel Commission, July 2010