PED guidebook main sxn rev6. FINAL.pdf - LGRC DILG 10

Project Evaluation and DevelopmentProject: Communal Irrigation SystemNarrative Summary Indicators M&E AssumptionsGoalTo promote food securitymean and variance of domesticsupply of riceBAS recordsTo reduce poverty among rice farmerspoverty incidence among ricefarmersFIES and APISPurposeTo increase and reduce volatility in thedomestic production of riceTo increase and reduce volatility in theincome stream of rice farmersvolume of rice produced per year special evaluationis increased by 1.8 times surveynumber of harvest is at least 2 per special evaluationyearsurveyreduced variance in rice production special evaluationper yearsurveyincome of farmers from rice is special evaluationincreased by 1.8 timessurveyreduced variance in annual income special evaluationof rice farmers from ricesurveyadequate supply of farminputs; available capital topurchase farm inputs;properfarm managementadequate postharvest andstorage facilitiesaggressive marketingstrategysavings mobilizationschemes for farmersOutputsIrrigation service area with covering 100hectares of rice plainsconstruction of CIS with servicearea of 100 hectaresprojectaccomplishmentreportsproper O&M and watershedmanagementInputsPhp 10 millionEngineering supportAdmin supportfunds disbursement rate% accomplishmentprojectaccomplishmentreportsROW secured on time2.2 The primary function of projects is to catalyze development.2.2.1 Society will continue functioning even without the project. The proponentneeds to adequately describe the “without project” scenario and contrast thisagainst the “with project” scenario. Again, this procedure is facilitated by theproject’s logframe. Table 2 can also help. Not all cells need to be filled up,only those that are relevant to the project. However, it will be useful to collect(and regularly update) this information from every barangay in the province.a. Start with the outcome, describe the current situation.b. Forecast 7 what will be the outcome going into the future if the project willnot be undertaken. We refer to this as the “without project” scenario. Besure to consider the following:• This “without project” scenario should consider future developments.• It is not always correct to assume that over time, the “without project”scenario will simply be the value of the outcome at the initial year.• The “initial year” should not coincide with extraordinary events, like anEl Nino, an earthquake, etc., unless these are normal occurrences.c. We will need a time series to be able to forecast outcomes given the“status quo”.7 Refer to Technical Appendix, pages 16-21 for pointers and some simple techniques on demand forecasting.RGEdillon January 200619