- Cowlitz PUD

Load-Resource BalanceFigure 10 below shows the District’s forecasted load-resource balance withexisting resources and contracts. On an energy basis, the utility will havesufficient resources to meet its needs through 2022. However, the District willneed to add more renewable resources to meet the renewable portfolio standard.Figure 10Projected Loads and Resources700650600aMW550500450BPA Tier 1 Swift No.2 Renewable I-937 Additions Unofficial Load Forecast40020082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027Regional transmissionNumerous transmission constraints exist in the region. These constraints do notappear explicitly in the decision model. The portfolio model considers loads andresources in aggregate. Actual site selection of plants will require detailedconsideration of transmission.There are several constrained cut-planes in the region across which long-termfirm transmission is unavailable. However, the numbers of hours where actualconstraints occur are small. Relying on hourly non-firm transmission does notappear to pose a significant risk at this time. The economic viability of long-termtransmission for an intermittent resource such as wind is questionable anywaydue to low capacity factor. Regional transmission will need to be monitored onan ongoing basis, especially as new resources are contracted further into thefuture.Cowlitz Load ForecastLoad forecasting is the process of estimating the amount of energy that theDistrict’s customers will use in the future. The load forecast is one of two key26