- Cowlitz PUD

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Resource PotentialThe IRP decision model assumes that there is a regional limit to the types ofresources that can be developed. For example, there are only a finite amount ofsites that are suitable for development of wind or geothermal projects. Inaddition, landfill gas projects are limited by the number of landfill projects. Thechart below shows regional potential estimates from the Northwest Power andConservation Council as well as the Western Governors association.Figure 28Regional Resource Potential6,0005,0005,0004,000aMW3,0002,0001,0001,7001,200300 200-Wind Biomass Geothermal Landfill GasWestern GovernorsNWPPC 5th PlanThis is a very important element in the resource selection simulation givenWashington’s renewable portfolio standard. To satisfy the requirements of thestandard, there will be a very high level of competition to develop or obtainqualifying resources. It would be unrealistic to assume that Cowlitz would beable to:1. Add more than the regional potential of any given resource.2. Add a disproportionate amount of a given technology.The model assumes that Cowlitz will be limited to its “share” of the regionalpotentials shown above. The following table shows the constraints assumed inthe decision modeling process.Wind 150LandFill Gas 25Geothermal 50Biomass 5042
Thermal based plants such as coal, IGCC, natural gas and nuclear are notconstrained because there is no physical limit to number of projects that could beconstructedExisting ResourcesCowlitz PUD has a significant compliment of non-federal generating resources.This section will highlight the principle components of the utility’s current portfolio.Swift hydroThe Swift No. 2 Hydroelectric Project is a 70 MW capacity plant owned byCowlitz PUD and is operated and maintained by PacifiCorp. The facility wasconstructed by the PUD in the late 1950s. In 2002, the project was severelydamaged when a bank of the canal that transports water from the Lewis Rivercollapsed. The project has since been repaired and now provides an average ofroughly 27 MW of generation to the utility.Due to its location on the West side of the cascades, Swift No. 2 provides theDistrict with a measure of generating “portfolio” diversification. This is becausethe majority of regional hydro is influenced by conditions in the Columbia basin.During certain time periods weather patterns on the Western side of theCascades are different from those on the East side. Also, the Lewis Riverregulation is different from the Columbia. Figure 29 below shows that Swift No. 2is about 78% correlated with FBS generation.Figure 29Swift No.2 vs. the FBS45Swift No. 2 Annual Generation (aMW)403530252015105R 2 = 0.7879-6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000FBS Generation (aMW)The next chart compares Swift No. 2 to the FBS in terms of average generation.As you can see, the chart below shows that Swift No. 2 is slightly more volatilethan the FBS. Swift generates at a higher level relative to the FBS in good wateryears.43
Page 3 and 4: Capital Costs .....................
Page 5 and 6: Chapter 1: Executive SummaryPublic
Page 7 and 8: Post-2011 BPA PurchaseThe IRP analy
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Page 28 and 29: stochastic variable in the simulati
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Page 34 and 35: GeothermalThere are three different
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Page 44 and 45: Figure 30Swift No.2 vs. the FBS160%
Page 46 and 47: Chapter 5: ConservationConservation
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Page 56 and 57: Market Heat-RateIt is common in the
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Page 60 and 61: CO2 LegislationCO2 legislation is m
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Page 64 and 65: Chapter 7: Analysis of Resource Por
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Page 68 and 69: Global OptimizationIn the decision
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Page 74 and 75: Portfolio B is comprised of 100 MW
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Page 90 and 91: TimelineFigure 68Rough Timeline for
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Chapter 11: Next StepsThe District
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- Cowlitz PUD

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