- Cowlitz PUD

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etween an expected low power cost and a measure of variance or risk. Ingeneral the tradeoff is similar to decisions faced by investors. An investor willshoulder additional risk only if he or she is compensated with a higher return.Likewise, if the investor seeks a lower amount of risk the only available choiceswill produce relatively lower returns. The same situation faces the District inchoosing a generation portfolio. The resource combinations that yield the lowestamount of variance have the highest expected power cost. Alternatively, thelowest cost portfolios have the highest amount of variance.The exact tradeoff will differ from utility to utility depending on management’stolerance for risk. Instead of picking a single point from the frontier, the Districtelected to generate a more generalized view of the resource types that workedwell in a certain “neighborhood”. This is illustrated on Figure 4 by the dashedoval line. Four portfolios were picked based on their performance and theirposition on the frontier. These are labeled as portfolios A, B, C and D. Thedetails of each (discussed at length in Chapter 8: Detailed Results) were thenaggregated.Figure 5 highlights the break down of the best performing generatingtechnologies in the first ten and last ten years of the study period. Initially, theresults suggest that the District should concentrate on developing or acquiringrenewable resources such as wind, biomass and landfill gas. Geothermalresources should also be investigated if viable sites are identified in the region.In the latter half of the study period the District will need to reassess the typesand costs of available technologies. During the last half of the period the studyimplies that a significant amount of attention should be given to addition of windresources.8
Figure 5Allocation of Preferred Generating Technologies2018-20277%2008-201727%32%37%53%WindLandFill GasGeothermalCombined CycleBiomass5%13%5%0%21%Action PlanThe District’s IRP defines the District’s need for new resources and investigatesdifferent generic resource types with an objective of presenting both quantitativeand qualitative analysis of the risk and rewards of pursuing different resourcetechnologies to fulfill the District’s resource requirements.The District’s action plan is divided into two sections. The first section describesthe conclusions drawn from this IRP with respect to actions to be taken in regardto electric resource acquisition. The second section describes issues to beinvestigated further for possible inclusion in this IRP or updates to this IRP.Action Plan – Resource Acquisition1. The District does not need additional resources to meet I-937 until 2016and to serve load until 2023, which provides time for the District tothoroughly investigate different resource alternatives before additionalprocurements are made. However, I-937 portfolio standards requireadditional renewable resources starting in 2016.9
Page 3 and 4: Capital Costs .....................
Page 5 and 6: Chapter 1: Executive SummaryPublic
Page 7: Post-2011 BPA PurchaseThe IRP analy
Page 11 and 12: 6. Acquire a better understanding o
Page 13 and 14: Provide information and analysis th
Page 16 and 17: Most of these inputs are straightfo
Page 18 and 19: (1)(a) A qualifying utility shall b
Page 20 and 21: atmosphere; as a result, these nati
Page 22 and 23: Renewable Energy Credit (REC) Marke
Page 24 and 25: to future growth, however, comes fr
Page 26 and 27: Load-Resource BalanceFigure 10 belo
Page 28 and 29: stochastic variable in the simulati
Page 30 and 31: Chapter 4: Supply-side resourcesIn
Page 32 and 33: IGCCIntegrated Gasification Combine
Page 34 and 35: GeothermalThere are three different
Page 36 and 37: on a semiconductor surface, usually
Page 38 and 39: Figure 20 shows the final assumptio
Page 40 and 41: Figure 24Survey of Variable Operati
Page 42 and 43: Resource PotentialThe IRP decision
Page 44 and 45: Figure 30Swift No.2 vs. the FBS160%
Page 46 and 47: Chapter 5: ConservationConservation
Page 48 and 49: There have been as many as twelve r
Page 50 and 51: • Residential compact fluorescent
Page 52 and 53: Models Used in the IRPCowlitz PUD e
Page 54 and 55: Variability of Hydro GenerationThe
Page 56 and 57: Market Heat-RateIt is common in the
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Natural Gas Price FormationFor the
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CO2 LegislationCO2 legislation is m
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Figure 41 highlights the results fr
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Chapter 7: Analysis of Resource Por
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The second risk faced by the Distri
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Global OptimizationIn the decision
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loads and prices. The result is a p
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Chapter 8: Detailed ResultsThis sec
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Portfolio B is comprised of 100 MW
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In the first half of the study peri
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Effect of LegislationDuring the dev
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Chapter 9: Hourly AnalysisThe IRP h
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turbine. The former is assumed to g
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Major components of the Tiered Rate
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• Currently referred to as Full o
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Customer A’s reduced SSP = 5 x (2
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TimelineFigure 68Rough Timeline for
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Chapter 11: Next StepsThe District
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