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XXXXXXTEXTOR AND ERNST: COMMENTARYXXXXXX419 of dry aggregates [Sorem, 1982], which are held together420 primarily <strong>by</strong> electrostatic attracti<strong>on</strong> and possibly also <strong>by</strong>421 geometrical <strong>in</strong>terlock<strong>in</strong>g as <strong>in</strong> snowflakes, lead<strong>in</strong>g to ex-422 treme porosities and a loosely bound, open framework423 structure [see also Schumacher, 1994; James et al.,424 2002]. The good fit between the VW01 model predicti<strong>on</strong>s425 and the MSH data appears co<strong>in</strong>cidental and related to the426 adjustment of free parameters (e.g., the collisi<strong>on</strong> Stokes427 number). The validati<strong>on</strong> of the wet aggregati<strong>on</strong> model428 simulated <strong>in</strong> VW01 is of little relevance, because wet429 aggregati<strong>on</strong> was not the dom<strong>in</strong>ant mechanism dur<strong>in</strong>g the430 MSH erupti<strong>on</strong>.431 8. C<strong>on</strong>clusi<strong>on</strong>s432 [23] The series of sensitivity experiments <strong>in</strong> the VW01433 paper is mislead<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> giv<strong>in</strong>g the impressi<strong>on</strong> that the model434 assumpti<strong>on</strong>s have been validated aga<strong>in</strong>st appropriate field435 data. Variati<strong>on</strong>s of the <strong>in</strong>itial mass flux, temperature, and gas436 c<strong>on</strong>tent, which is unrealistically low, do not mean much. In437 our view, the assumpti<strong>on</strong> of top hat geometry <strong>in</strong> the erupti<strong>on</strong>438 column model is not suitable for the simulati<strong>on</strong> of the wet439 aggregati<strong>on</strong> process. The <strong>in</strong>fluence of vary<strong>in</strong>g the particle440 size distributi<strong>on</strong> <strong>on</strong> the aggregati<strong>on</strong> efficiency is of little441 <strong>in</strong>terest: particle aggregati<strong>on</strong> is not described accord<strong>in</strong>g to442 sound first pr<strong>in</strong>ciples or parameterized <strong>in</strong> a way that would443 reflect any of the recent developments <strong>in</strong> cloud micro-444 physics. The comparis<strong>on</strong> with the Mount St. Helens erup-445 ti<strong>on</strong> is <strong>in</strong>appropriate to validate the simulati<strong>on</strong>s. The446 experiments do not <strong>in</strong>crease our understand<strong>in</strong>g of ash447 particle aggregati<strong>on</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>volcanic</strong> erupti<strong>on</strong> columns. The448 model leads to err<strong>on</strong>eous results and should not be used449 for important applicati<strong>on</strong>s such as aircraft safety or predic-450 ti<strong>on</strong>s of hazards <strong>on</strong> the ground.451 [24] In general, numerical models can be extremely452 helpful for the <strong>in</strong>vestigati<strong>on</strong> of processes, which are not453 accessible to direct observati<strong>on</strong>s, or which are not yet fully454 understood. Murray [2002, 2003] and Harry [2003] discuss455 the usefulness of numerical model<strong>in</strong>g as a geophysical456 research tool. Harry [2003] addresses the essential c<strong>on</strong>di-457 ti<strong>on</strong>s, which have to be met <strong>by</strong> these models: ‘‘Simulati<strong>on</strong>s458 are based <strong>on</strong> quantitative descripti<strong>on</strong>s of the relevant laws of459 physics as they are currently understood, empirical mea-460 surements of the physical properties <strong>in</strong>volved, and the461 available field data.’’ This c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong> is not fulfilled <strong>in</strong> the462 VW01 model c<strong>on</strong>cept as highlighted above.463 [25] Clearly, <strong>on</strong> the <strong>on</strong>e hand, the problem of particle464 aggregati<strong>on</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>volcanic</strong> or meteorological clouds is complex465 and much work is needed. There are very scarce c<strong>on</strong>stra<strong>in</strong>ts466 <strong>on</strong> several of the key parameters, even <strong>in</strong> the much simpler467 and more thoroughly exam<strong>in</strong>ed case of str<strong>on</strong>gly c<strong>on</strong>vective468 clouds. For example, <strong>in</strong>formati<strong>on</strong> about the follow<strong>in</strong>g469 parameters would be desirable: (1) <strong>in</strong> situ temperature data470 from erupti<strong>on</strong> columns, (2) characteristics of turbulence471 (<strong>in</strong>tensity and spatial distributi<strong>on</strong>), (3) particle c<strong>on</strong>centra-472 ti<strong>on</strong>, (4) chemical characterizati<strong>on</strong> and wettability of ash473 particles, (5) erupted and <strong>in</strong> situ size distributi<strong>on</strong>s of ash474 particles and aggregates, (6) coalescence efficiency of475 <strong>volcanic</strong> particles, and dry, wet, and icy ash aggregates,476 (7) collisi<strong>on</strong> efficiency of <strong>volcanic</strong> particles and aggregates477 <strong>in</strong> turbulent flow, (8) microphysical properties of hydro-478 meteors and aggregates (e.g., shape, physical c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>,hydrodynamic stability), and (9) <strong>in</strong> situ electrostatic fieldmeasurements <strong>in</strong> <strong>volcanic</strong> clouds and effects <strong>on</strong> particleaggregati<strong>on</strong>. The results of simulati<strong>on</strong>s of a poorly c<strong>on</strong>stra<strong>in</strong>edsystem, and any possible <strong>in</strong>terpretati<strong>on</strong> of them, are<strong>in</strong> their part, poorly c<strong>on</strong>stra<strong>in</strong>ed.[26] On the other hand, however, Harry [2003] <strong>in</strong>dicatesthat ‘‘...numerical simulati<strong>on</strong>s may...be a very importanttool for determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g which additi<strong>on</strong>al types of data areneeded to better c<strong>on</strong>stra<strong>in</strong> the system. Alternatively, itmay <strong>in</strong>dicate that the system is sufficiently <strong>in</strong>sensitive tocerta<strong>in</strong> parameters that they cannot be determ<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>by</strong> eventhe most thorough observati<strong>on</strong>s of the system behavior.’’Hence specific aspects of complex phenomena can beexam<strong>in</strong>ed with numerical models even for a system withmany unknown parameters <strong>in</strong> order to c<strong>on</strong>f<strong>in</strong>e their sensitivityto certa<strong>in</strong> parameters. These parameters can then befurther <strong>in</strong>vestigated <strong>in</strong> the laboratory or possibly <strong>in</strong> the field.We believe that the process of ash aggregati<strong>on</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>volcanic</strong>erupti<strong>on</strong> columns is <strong>on</strong>e such problem.[27] Yet the adaptability of a certa<strong>in</strong> model c<strong>on</strong>figurati<strong>on</strong>depends <strong>on</strong> the specific problem under c<strong>on</strong>siderati<strong>on</strong>, and<strong>on</strong>e must be careful to avoid develop<strong>in</strong>g models, which d<strong>on</strong>ot describe, <strong>in</strong> a physically sound way, at least <strong>on</strong>e aspectof the complex natural phenomen<strong>on</strong> under study. The modelassumpti<strong>on</strong>s must be discussed and their limitati<strong>on</strong>s establishedthrough comparis<strong>on</strong>s with relevant field or laboratorydata. The credibility of numerical simulati<strong>on</strong>s as a scientificmethod is <strong>in</strong> danger if model results are <strong>in</strong>adequatelyvalidated aga<strong>in</strong>st such data. The explorati<strong>on</strong> of factorslead<strong>in</strong>g to discrepancies between model predicti<strong>on</strong>s anddata quite often results <strong>in</strong> the most important f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs.[28] Our analyses <strong>in</strong>dicate that the VW01 model of ashaggregati<strong>on</strong> is not based <strong>on</strong> sound first pr<strong>in</strong>ciples. Afavorable comparis<strong>on</strong> of the model predicti<strong>on</strong>s with irrelevantfield data completes to illustrate that it is of little value<strong>in</strong> specifically and accurately describ<strong>in</strong>g the problem athand and that it fails to provide new <strong>in</strong>sights.[29] In sum, no theoretical model of (either dry or wet)ash aggregati<strong>on</strong> has been presented to date. The soluti<strong>on</strong>required here, must be an unsteady erupti<strong>on</strong> column model<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g simplified but physically sound and fully justifiedpr<strong>in</strong>ciples of cloud microphysics. In the case of wet aggregati<strong>on</strong>,comparis<strong>on</strong> of model predicti<strong>on</strong>s must be aga<strong>in</strong>stany of the follow<strong>in</strong>g: Laboratory data, c<strong>on</strong>stra<strong>in</strong>ts fromdirect and from remote sens<strong>in</strong>g observati<strong>on</strong>s of water-richerupti<strong>on</strong> columns [Rose et al., 1995, 2000; Lacasse et al.,2003] and from phreatomagmatic tuff deposits (i.e., more orless vesiculated layers c<strong>on</strong>ta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g accreti<strong>on</strong>ary lapilli (e.g.,Durant and Ernst, submitted manuscript, 2003)). We proposeto submit such a first numerical model of wet ashaggregati<strong>on</strong> shortly.[30] Acknowledgments. The work of C.T. was supported <strong>by</strong> theBundesm<strong>in</strong>isterium für Bildung, Wissenschaft, Forschung und Technologie(BMBF) program AFO2000, grant 06-056-0180, and <strong>by</strong> the VolkswagenFoundati<strong>on</strong> under the project EVA. G.G.J.E. acknowledges support fromthe Nuffield Foundati<strong>on</strong> (NAL Award) and from the F<strong>on</strong>dati<strong>on</strong> Belge de laVocati<strong>on</strong> through the Golden Clover Prize; he also acknowledges supportfrom NSF through Bill Rose (Processes <strong>in</strong> <strong>volcanic</strong> ashclouds NSF grant),which allowed him to develop this work with C.T. while visit<strong>in</strong>g MichiganTech <strong>in</strong> summer of 2002. G.G.J.E. is now supported <strong>by</strong> the Belgian NSF(FWO-Vlaanderen) at University of Ghent. We thank Francis Albarede andthree an<strong>on</strong>ymous reviewers for c<strong>on</strong>structive and helpful suggesti<strong>on</strong>s thathelped improve the manuscript.4794804814824834844854864874884894904914924934944954964974984995005015025035045055065075085095105115125135145155165175185195205215225235245255265275285295305315325335345355365375385395405415of6

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