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FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT MAY 2005 “TOSHKENT” REPUBLICAN STOCK EXCHANGE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS Politic and Economic Environment: Uzbekistan is one of the more prosperous of the Central Asian transitional economies. A wealth of mineral, energy, and agricultural resources, coupled with one of Central Asia's largest populations, provide the ingredients for a burgeoning economy. The agrarian sector is the backbone of the Uzbek economy, making up 30% of Uzbekistan's GDP in 2001 and 30.6% in 2002. Uzbekistan is one of the world's largest cotton producers and exporters and produces a significant amount of gold and natural gas. The country has more than tripled its liquid hydrocarbon production since independence. President Karimov has moved, slowly, to liberalize the depressed economy. Despite the possibility of social unrest if reforms lead to temporary lower living standards and unemployment, he promised to extend privatization, assist small businesses, and free the Uzbek currency in order to win IMF approval. PAGE 130 Economic Performance: GDP grew 4.2% in 2002, sparked by industrial production growth of 8.5% and agricultural production growth of 6.1% due to a good harvest. The monthly inflation rate went down to 1.6% in 2002 from 1.9% in 2001. The national budget was executed with a deficit of 0.8% of GDP, beating the 2% benchmark approved by parliament. The deficit was financed mainly by receipts from privatization and from Central Bank loans. The impending privatization of Uzbek’s gas utilities will speed up the creation of a market environment in the gas sector. This should inject some much-needed FDI into the economy. 1 1 Economic and Political Overview, County Watch Incorporated, 2005 Key Information Contacts Ministry of Finance www.mf.uz/eng National Bank of Uzbekistan http://eng.nbu.com/about/history/index.php State Central Securities Depository www.deponet.uz/english.shtml/ Portal of the State Authority www.gov.uz/en/ ECONOMIC RATIOS Domestic savings Uzbekistan Lower-middle-income group Trade Indebtedness Investment GROWTH OF INVESTMENT AND GDP (%) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 97 GDI GDP 98 99 00 01 02 03 * World Bank reports
FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT MAY 2005 “TOSHKENT” REPUBLICAN STOCK EXCHANGE UZBEKISTAN GDP/EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN Sector % GDP % Employment Agriculture 28.0 35.0 Industry 21.0 23.6 Services 51.0 41.4 UZBEKISTAN MONEY SUPPLY, INTEREST RATES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES GROWTH OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (%) 10 0 -10 -20 EXPORT AND IMPORT LEVELS (US$ Millions) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 97 Exports Imports Exports 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 Imports 98 99 00 01 02 03 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Money Supply M1 (sum-billions) 92 100 132 E 159 E 192 E Money Supply M2 (sum-billions) 116 126 166 E 199 E 241 E Growth Rate M1 22.6% 8.8% 32.6% E 20.2% E 21.2% E Growth Rate M2 20.8% 8.2% 31.5% E 20.2% E 21.2% E Interest Rates deposit rate 21.0% 17.0% 18.0% E 24.0% E 30.0% E lending rate 33.0% 32.3% 28.0% E 24.0% E 30.0% E Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ millions) 1,105 1,113 931 1,120 1,257 Exchange Rate Period Average (sum/US$) 98.35 123.17 250.00 350.00 700.00 Annual % Growth 22.63 25.24 102.97 40.0 E 100 E E: Estimate * Economic Overview, Country Watch Incorporated, 2005 INFLATION (%) 80 60 40 20 0 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE TO GDP (%) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 GDP deflator CPI 97 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 98 99 00 01 02 03 * World Bank reports PAGE 131
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