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FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT MAY 2005 BANJA LUKA STOCK EXCHANGE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS Politic and Economic Environment: Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is comprised of two distinct entities – The Republic of Srpska (RS), which accounts for one-third of the population and contains mostly Serbs, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation), which accounts for the other two-thirds of the population and consists mostly of Muslims and Croats. Both entities enjoy significant autonomy, with their own police, army, and tax and customs systems. There is also a tiny Northern district controlled by both entities called Brcko, which has its own tax laws. BiH’s economy is well-diversified. Services account for nearly three-fifths of GDP, industry nearly a quarter and agriculture just under one-fifth. The relative share of agriculture is twice as high in the RS as in the more urbanized Bosnia and Herzegovina Federation. Key Information Contacts Republic of Srpska Securities Commission www.khov-rs.org Central Registry of Securities www.crhovrs.org Government of Republic of Srpska www.vladars.net Central Bank of BiH www.cbbh.ba Tax Administration of Republic of Srpska www.poreskaupravars.org ECONOMIC RATIOS Domestic savings PAGE 52 Bosnia & Herzegovina Lower-middle-income group Trade Indebtedness Investment A lot of progress has been made at reducing ethnic tensions and rebuilding basic infrastructure and that provides a basis for future growth. Real GDP has been buoyant since the mid-1990s with the economy recovering from its low war-era base. In October 2002, Bosnia was scheduled to hold its fourth presidential election within the strictures of the tripartite system, which had been established under the Dayton Accords. The members of the presidency at the time included Beriz Belkic (Muslim/Bosniak), who became chairman on Feb. 14, 2002; Jozo Krizanovic (Croat); and Zivko Radisic (Serb). The October 2002 elections involved 52 parties and over 7,000 candidates and marked a historic turning point because they were run by the Bosnian authorities and not the international apparatus resulting from the Dayton Accords. GROWTH OF INVESTMENT AND GDP (%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 97 GDI GDP Economic Performance: The country's monetary policy has been prudent and effective. After adoption in 1997 of a currency board arrangement linking the convertible mark (KM) to the Deutsche mark (now to the Euro), with controls on money supply growth and a tightly managed foreign exchange trading band, inflation rates have largely stabilized in the lower single-digits. Average inflation for the entire country was 0.3% in 2002 and even lower in 2003. The consolidated fiscal deficit was reduced from 2.2% of GDP in 2002 to a small surplus of 0.4% in 2003 due to responsible spending by both entities. In 1998, the government subscribed to an IMF-financed economic reform program, aimed at reconfiguring the inefficient fiscal structure and sharply reducing direct state participation in productive sectors. 1 1 Economic and Political Overview, County Watch Incorporated, 2005 98 99 00 01 02 03 * World Bank reports
FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT MAY 2005 BANJA LUKA STOCK EXCHANGE BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA GDP/EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN Sector % GDP % Employment Agriculture 19.0 3.8 Industry 23.0 64.5 Services 58.0 31.7 BOSNIA HERZEGOVINA MONEY SUPPLY, INTEREST RATES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES GROWTH OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (%) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 EXPORT AND IMPORT LEVELS (US$ Millions) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 INFLATION (%) Exports Imports GDP deflator CPI Exports 97 Imports 98 99 00 01 02 03 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Money Supply M1 (KM's-billions) 0.38 1.15 1.47 2.79 3.15 Money Supply M2 (KM's-billions) 1.82 2.33 2.59 4.92 5.38 Growth Rate M1 11.9% 199.4% 28.1% 89.7% 13.0% Growth Rate M2 22.0% 27.5% 11.3% 90.0% 9.4% Interest Rates deposit rate 51.9% 9.1% 14.7% 16.5% 4.5% lending rate 73.5% 24.3% 30.5% 25.0% 12.7% Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ millions) 175 452 497 1,221 1,321 Exchange Rate Period Average (KM's/US$) 1.7597 1.8371 2.2144 2.1872 2.08 Annual % Growth 1.48 4.40 15.64 2.96 -4.9 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE TO GDP (%) 0 -10 -20 -30 97 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 98 99 00 01 02 03 * Economic Overview, Country Watch Incorporated, 2005 * World Bank reports PAGE 53
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