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FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT MAY 2005 BAKU INTERBANK CURRENCY EXCHANGE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS Politic and Economic Environment: Baku, Azerbaijan's capital and largest city emerged more than 100 years ago as one of the earliest centers of the international petroleum industry. At the beginning of the 21st century, oil and gas activity remains the engine of the Azerbaijani economy. Indeed, oil exports accounted for 90% of all exports in 2002. It appears that oil development in the Azeri sector of the Caspian will fuel economic development and income growth for many years to come, especially after official sanctioning of the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which will pump Azeri oil through Georgia and Turkey to the Mediterranean terminal at Ceyhan, Turkey, and related projects, which will inject an estimated US$ 8 billion in investment over the next few years. In August 2003, the parliament of Azerbaijan elected President Aliyev's son, Ilhan Aliyev, as the prime minister. The measure was viewed as an attempt to secure a peaceful political transition, in the event that the ailing president were to become incapacitated. President Aliyev was scheduled to run for a third term in the presidential polls in October 2003, but withdrew from the election contest due to health concerns. His supporters transferred their efforts to his son, the new Key Information Contacts National Bank www.nba.az State Committee for Securities www.scs.gov.az Ministry of Finance www.maliyye.gov.az National Depository Center www.mdm.az International Bank of Azerbaijan www.bse.az/images/p_ibar.gif National Bank of Azerbaijan www.nba.az/ State Committee for Securities www.scs.gov.az Ministry of Finance www.minfin-az.com Ministry of Economic Development www.economy.gov.az ECONOMIC RATIOS Domestic savings PAGE 46 Azerbaijan Lower-middle-income group Trade Indebtedness Investment Prime Minister Ilham Aliyev. The younger Aliyev went on to win the election in a landslide victory. In December 2003, Heydar Aliyev died in a United States hospital at the age of 80. He was undergoing treatment for heart and kidney problems. In 2004, bilateral relations with Armenia constituted one of the main issues facing Azerbaijan's political landscape. The new Azerbaijani president expressed his hope that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) would continue in its effort in forging a resolution to the conflict in Nagornyy Karabakh. On the domestic front, President Aliyev has expressed confidence in the economic growth of Azerbaijan in the next few years, as well as the strengthening of democracy and the improvement of human development concerns. In these regards, he said, "Our assuredness stems from the considerable investments in Azerbaijan, the development of democratic reforms, and the implementation of social programs to improve people's quality of life." GROWTH OF INVESTMENT AND GDP (%) 90 60 30 0 97 GDI GDP Economic Performance: Foreign direct investment in the petroleum sector boosted GDP growth to 11.2% in 2003 compared to 10.6% in 2002. Consumer price inflation has been restrained in recent years, declining slightly to 2.2% in 2003 from 2.8% in 2002. Fiscally speaking, Azerbaijan's deficit increased in 2003, to nearly 2%, compared to 0.5% in 2002, but this was primarily due to infrastructure-related expenditures and an increase in pension wages. Agricultural work still occupies some 40% of the Azeri workforce, and the unemployment rate has remained low (at 1.4% in 2003). Although oil revenues represent a large portion of Azerbaijan’s economy, they have made inroads into this problem, with non-oil economy growing significantly in 2003. 1 1 Economic and Political Overview, County Watch Incorporated, 2005 98 99 00 01 02 03 * World Bank reports
FEDERATION OF EURO-ASIAN STOCK EXCHANGES SEMI ANNUAL REPORT MAY 2005 BAKU INTERBANK CURRENCY EXCHANGE AZERBAIJAN GDP/EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN Sector % GDP % Employment Agriculture 22.0 22.3 Industry 33.0 17.7 Services 45.0 60.1 AZERBAIJAN MONEY SUPPLY, INTEREST RATES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES GROWTH OF EXPORTS AND IMPORTS (%) 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 EXPORT AND IMPORT LEVELS (US$ Millions) 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 INFLATION (%) Exports Imports GDP deflator CPI 97 Exports Imports 98 99 00 01 02 03 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Money Supply M1 (manats-billions) 1,183 1,390 1,570 1,693 1,967 Money Supply M2 (manats-billions) 1,846 2,216 3,843 3,439 3,939 Growth Rate M1 -22.4% 17.5% 12.9% 7.9% 16.2% Growth Rate M2 -15.2% 20.1% 73.4% -10.5% 14.5% Interest Rates deposit rate 14.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 7.0% lending rate 14.1% 19.5% 19.7% 19.7% 17.4% Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ millions) 447 673 680 897 722 Exchange Rate Period Average (manats/US$) 3,869 4,120 4,474 4,657 4,861 Annual % Growth -2.92 6.49 8.59 4.08 4.39 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE TO GDP (%) 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 97 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 98 99 00 01 02 03 * Economic Overview, Country Watch Incorporated, 2005 * World Bank reports PAGE 47
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