Goal 4 Reduce child mortalityUnder-five mortality ratescontinue to fallUnder-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)20015010050Progress toward reducingchild mortality, 1990–2010Share of countries making progress toward reducing child mortality(%)10050050100Reached target On track Off track Seriously off trackInsufficient dataEast Asia& PacificEurope& CentralAsiaLatinAmerica &CaribbeanSource: <strong>World</strong> Bank staff calculations.43210Europe &Central AsiaEast Asia& PacificEast Asia& PacificLatin America& Caribbean01990 1995 2000 20052011Source: Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and <strong>World</strong><strong>Development</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong> database.Europe& CentralAsiaLatinAmerica &CaribbeanMiddle East& NorthAfricaDeaths of children under age 5, 2011 (millions)Children (ages 1–4)Infants (ages 1–11 months)Neonatals (ages 0–1 month)Middle East& NorthAfricaSouthAsiaAs mortality rates fall, a larger proportionof deaths occur in the first monthSub-Saharan AfricaSouthAsiaSouth AsiaMiddle East &North Africa4bSub-SaharanAfrica4cSub-SaharanAfricaSource: Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and <strong>World</strong><strong>Development</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong> database.4aIn 1990, 12 million children died before their fifthbirthday. By 1999 fewer than 10 million did. Andin 2012 7 million did. In developing countries theunder-five mortality rate fell from an average of 95per 1,000 live births in 1990 to 56 in 2011, butrates in Sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia remainmuch higher (figure 4a). Currently, 41 countriesare poised to reach the Millennium <strong>Development</strong>Goal target of a two-thirds reduction in under-fivemortality rates by 2015 (figure 4b). Faster improvementsover the last decade suggest that manycountries are accelerating progress and another25 could reach the target as soon as 2020. Lookingpast 2015, still faster progress is possible ifhigh mortality countries give priority to addressingthe causes of child mortality. Concomitant reductionsin fertility rates, particularly among adolescents,will also help.Most children die from causes that are readilypreventable or curable with existing interventions,such as pneumonia (18 percent), diarrhea(11 percent), and malaria (7 percent). Almost 70percent of deaths of children under age 5 occurin the first year of life, and 60 percent of thosein the first month (figure 4c). Preterm birth complicationsaccount for 14 percent of deaths, andcomplications during birth another 9 percent (UNInter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation2012). Therefore reducing child mortality requiresaddressing the causes of neonatal and infantdeaths: inadequate care at birth and afterward,malnutrition, poor sanitation, and exposure toacute and chronic disease. Lower infant and childmortality rates are, in turn, the largest contributorsto higher life expectancy in most countries.Childhood vaccinations are a proven, costeffectiveway of reducing childhood illness anddeath. But despite years of vaccination campaigns,many children in low- and lower middle-incomeeconomies remain unprotected. To be successful,vaccination campaigns must reach all childrenand be sustained over time. Thus it is worrisomethat measles vaccination rates in the two highest8 <strong>World</strong> <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong> <strong>2013</strong> Front ? User guide <strong>World</strong> view People Environment
mortality regions, South Asia and Sub- SaharanAfrica, have stagnated in the last three years, atless than 80 percent coverage (figure 4d).Twenty countries in the developing worldaccounted for 4.5 million deaths among childrenunder age 5 in 2011, or 65 percent of all suchdeaths worldwide (figure 4e). These countries aremostly large, often with high birth rates, but manyhave substantially reduced mortality rates overthe past two decades. Of the 20, 11 have reachedor are likely to achieve a two-thirds reduction intheir under-five mortality rate by 2015: Bangladesh,Brazil, China, the Arab Republic of Egypt,Ethiopia, Indonesia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mexico,Niger, and Turkey. Had the mortality rates of 1990prevailed in 2011, these 11 countries would haveexperienced 2 million more deaths. The remainingnine, where progress has been slower, have neverthelessaverted 3 million deaths. If India wereon track to reach the target, another 440,000deaths would have been averted.The data used to monitor child mortality are producedby the Inter-agency Group for Child MortalityEstimation (IGME), which evaluates data fromexisting sources and then fits a statistical modelto data points that are judged to be reliable. Themodel produces a trend line for under-five mortalityrates in each country. Infant mortality and neonatalmortality rates are derived from under-five mortalityestimates. The data come from householdsurveys and, where available, vital registration systems.But surveys are slow and costly. While theyremain important tools for investigating certaincomplex, micro-level problems, vital registrationsystems are usually better sources of timely statistics.Recent IGME estimates of under-five mortalityinclude new data from vital registration systemsfor about 70 countries. But many countries lackcomplete reporting of vital events, and even thosethat do often misreport cause of death. Vital registrationsupplemented by surveys and censusesoffers the best approach for improving knowledgeof morbidity and mortality in all age groups.Measles immunizationrates are stagnatingChildren ages 12–23 months immunized against measles (%)10075502501990East Asia& PacificLatin America& CaribbeanFive million deathsaverted in 20 countriesDeaths of children under age 5, 2011 (millions)At 2011 mortality rate Averted based on 1990 mortality rateIndiaNigeriaChinaPakistanEthiopiaBangladeshIndonesiaTanzaniaAfghanistanUgandaNigerMozambiqueAngolaBrazilEgypt, Arab Rep.MalawiPhilippinesMadagascarMexicoTurkeyEurope & Central Asia1995South Asia20004e0 1 2 3 4Source: <strong>World</strong> Bank staff calculations.Middle East & North Africa2005Sub-Saharan AfricaSource: <strong>World</strong> Health Organization, United Nations Children’s Fund, and<strong>World</strong> <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong> database.4d2011Economy States and markets Global links Back<strong>World</strong> <strong>Development</strong> <strong>Indicators</strong> <strong>2013</strong> 9
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