How much water does rice need? - adron.sr

RICE FACTSRice and the global financial crisisby Samarendu Mohanty Head, IRRI Social Sciences DivisionWhat are the short- and long-term impacts on rice production and food security?In the October–December2008 issue of Rice Today, Iwrote an article (Rice crisis:the aftermath, pages 40-41)highlighting the 2008-09 supplyand demand situation and thelong-term challenges to meetingfuture demand growth. Soon afterthat article went to press, thecalamitous global financial crisisand attendant fall in commodityprices cast a dark shadow overthe agricultural situation,despite the drop in crop prices.Since reaching their peak earlierthis year, wheat and rice priceshave fallen steeply. The price for100% grade B Thai rice fell to $575per ton in late October 2008 froma whopping $1,080 per ton in April2008, a result of record productionand economic slowdown. It isimportant to remember, however,that current rice export pricesremain around double those ofmid-2007. Following crude oiland agricultural commodities,fertilizer prices, particularly forurea and ammonia, also plummetedtoward the end of 2008 after reachingrecord highs in September.Short-term impactThe meltdown of commodity pricesmay have caught off-guard manyfarmers who in late 2008 harvesteda lower-priced crop produced withhigh-priced inputs (such as seeds andfertilizer). Burned once, these farmerswill likely play safe and reduce inputuse for their 2009 crops. The creditcrunch will also make it difficult forfarmers around the world to securecredit for purchasing inputs. Signsof this trend have already emerged.Already, the Philippines haslowered its 2009 rice productionestimate by almost 4% because oflower input use as farmers struggle tosecure credit to buy inputs. Similarnews from other rice-producingMillion tons44042040038036000/01Million hectares16015515014514000/01World milled rice production01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09YearsRice area and yieldYieldAreaTons per hectare3.01.001/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09Yearscountries is likely in the near term.Production uncertainty due totight credit and declining rice pricescombined with strong demandgrowth points to another rise inrice prices in the coming months.Price volatility will remain high.Long-term effectsThe recent crisis in the ricemarket helped expose recentfundamental imbalances in supplyand demand. In five of the lastseven years, rice consumption hasexceeded production, resultingin frequent dipping into bufferstocks to cover the shortfall. Therecent rise and fall in rice pricesreaffirms the high degree of pricevolatility arising out of historiclow levels of global rice stocks.The world has produced a recordrice crop in each of the last 4 yearswith most of the increase coming2.52.01.5from area expansion rather thanyield growth (see figures). Aslowdown in rice yield growth hasbeen occurring since the early1990s. The neglect of agriculturalresearch and infrastructuredevelopment since the early 1980shas started to bite. The recentcrisis turned the world’s attentionback to agriculture, but thecredit crunch is likely to furthertighten funding for infrastructureimprovements and researchand development activities.Making matters worse,the economic slowdown mayincrease the demand for rice indeveloping countries as fallingincome forces poor people toswitch back to less expensivestaples. Consumption projectionsmay therefore rise above earlierestimates of around 90 milliontons per year of additionalrough (unmilled) rice by 2020.Time to actThe supply and demand situationsimply does not add up for rice.Current rice area is at a historichigh and it is foolish to assumethat additional area can keepcoming to meet future demand.If the yield growth rate does notimprove, we can expect rice pricesto continue to rise, and at a fasterpace than that seen since pricesstarted moving up in 2000.The solution lies in revitalizingrice yield growth through higherinvestment in research andinfrastructure development.The International Rice ResearchInstitute’s nine-point plan forshort- and long-term interventionsoutlines the sort of urgent action thatdonors, international organizations,and national governments need totake to improve yield now and inthe future (see http://solutions.irri.org/images/the_rice_crisis.pdf).40 Rice Today January-March 2009