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into poverty.” With rice yield growthrunning below population growthsince 1992, Dr. Dobermann describedthe industry’s urgent need to fix aproblem that is not new, and thatreached a global audience only afterexport prices surpassed US$1,000per ton in May 2008. According toDr. Dobermann, a “generation gap”underscores a shortage of youngrice scientists as the world grapplesto meet the target of raising globalrice production by 8–9 million tonsper year between now and 2020.THE RICE TRADER (3)The voice of tradeWhile there was an uncomfortableagreement that the record plantingsseen in 2008 were a result of farmersbeing motivated by the high pricesof April-May 2008 along with somevery favorable weather conditions,Jeremy Zwinger, president of TheRice Trader, cited several factors thatcould throw markets into a period ofsustained volatility. The key concernsare overconfidence by governmentsand those in charge of food andfarm policy in assuming that lowerprices mean “crisis solved” combinedwith the psychological impact of thecurrent fall in prices, rising inputcosts, a growing global population(meaning increasing demand), andthe fact that very little changedfundamentally in rice markets. Manyof the issues raised by the 2008 priceshock—such as insufficient wateravailability, population growth,increasing demand, the need forimproved varieties, improvedtolerance of extreme weather, andthe need for long-term availabilityand affordability in the face of anexpanding population—have beenaround for 15 years or more.Robert Papanos, editor of TheRice Trader, pointed to just how easyit was for demand to overwhelmsupply. Unreliable and oftenquestionable production statistics,inefficiencies in the methodology ofcrop surveys, high fertilizer prices,and continued weather problemseven during the current harvestsoffered a glimpse at just how tightsupply and demand are right now,making volatility unavoidable.ROBERT PAPANOS, Achim Dobermann, Jeremy Zwinger, and V. Subramanianfollowing the announcement that Rice Today and The Rice Trader wereteaming up (see A global voice for the global grain on page 6).VIJAY SETIA, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association (left photo), speaks. Rut Subniran, vicepresident of the Thai Rice Millers’ Association and chairman of the executive board of Patum Rice Mill andGranary Public Company Ltd. (left in right photo), and Korbsook Iamsuri, secretary general of the Thai RiceExporters’ Association and CEO of the Kamolkij Group of Companies, preside over a discussion panel.Mr. Papanos also reflected onhigh-priced stocks held currentlyby traders and the impact of thecredit crunch as important shorttermelements that will affect buyingpatterns as buyers increasinglyface a “hand-to-mouth” situationcreated by the credit situation.The road ahead reveals an urgentneed for research to increase yieldsand develop strong postharvest andcrop-management solutions that getmore from current rice varieties, aswell as for efforts to get policy rightand keep farmers in rice productionat a time of tight supply and demandand volatile prices. Demand isexpected to arrive in “spurts” asdemand and supply perform anawkward dance to discover price.If there are positives to emergefrom the craziness of 2008, theyinclude across-the-board recognitionthat long-term strategies arerequired and agreement amongfarmers, traders, researchers, andpolicymakers that production andprice stability are crucial for the riceindustry’s livelihood—along with thatof the billions of people who dependon the grain for their sustenance.Mr. Subramanian is vicepresident for Asia of The RiceTrader. He can be contacted atsubra@thericetrader.com.12 Rice Today January-March 2009