wastebook2014

WASTEBOOK 2014Missile Defense Misses the Target$998 million42By the time it is completed, the DefenseDepartment will have spent more than $41billion on a missile defense system that with a30% success rate at stopping missiles. 628 OurBallistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) consistsof both ground- and sea-based radar andinterceptor missiles that provide a “layered”defense against a nuclear strike on our homeland.629 Developed to intercept intermediateand intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM),the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD)system is the backbone of our ground-basedmissile defense system.It is built around the hit-to-killExoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) warhead,which in theory intercepts and destroys anincoming ICBM in our upper atmosphere. TheU.S. currently has 30 GMD Ground-BasedInterceptors (GBIs) deployed in Alaska andCalifornia, and plans to deploy an additional14 by 2017, even though the system’s performancehas been marred by failure and finaltesting of the system’s capabilities and limitationswon’t be completed until 2022. 630A successor to the Reagan era “StarWars” Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) program,development of GMD was fast tracked in2002 with a Bush administration plan to deployan “initial set of missile defense capabilities”by 2005. 631 To meet the timeline, GMD wasrushed into a high-risk, concurrent development,production, and fielding process knownas “concurrency.” In 2012, the GovernmentAccountability Office (GAO) reported that theprogram’s “highly concurrent development,production, and fielding strategy” had resultedin “disrupted production, increased costs, anddelayed fielding” of the system. 632Critics of the program remain skepticalthat the system will ever be able to interceptan operational ICBM as intended. The DefenseDepartment’s Operational Test and Evaluation(DOT&E), the final authority on weapon systemperformance, has long warned the systemfalls short. 633 Its former director, Philip Coyle,said recently, “The GMD system still has nodemonstrated effectiveness to defend the U.S.…against enemy attack under realistic operationalconditions.” 634 That’s because the tests48on the GMD system are conducted at lowervelocity than what the system would encounteragainst an actual operational ICBM, makingthem a poor approximation of the conditions ofa real attack. 635And even at the lower velocity, the test resultsdon’t inspire confidence. Of the 17 highlyscripted tests performed on the GMD systemto date, only 9 (53 percent) have successfullyintercepted their target, and the last test inJune of this year was the first successful test ofthe improved EKV, the Capability Enhancement(CE-II) model. Two previous tests of the CE-IIfailed in 2010, 636 prompting Congress to imposea delay on further production until successfultests could be demonstrated. 637 The MDA’s officialrelease following the system’s June testhailed it as the fourth intercept of “the GMD…operationally configured interceptor since2006,” 638 even though GAO has reported thatthe first test of the operationally configured interceptorin 2006 would not have resulted in akill of the incoming missile. 639The DOD Inspector General (IG) attributesthree of the test failures directly to the EKV,which it says suffers from quality control issuesresulting from a culture driven by “scheduleand cost priorities” that created “a manufacturingchallenge” for the EKV. 640 The NationalResearch Council (NRC) was less kind in its2012 assessment of the program, noting thatthe GMD system exemplified the MDA’s ““hobbyshop” approach, with many false starts on poorlyanalyzed concepts.” 641 Because of the numberof design changes the EKV has undergone overthe years, costly retrofits will have to be madeto the 30 GBIs that are already deployed. GAOhas reported a cost increase from $236 millionto $1.309 billion to “demonstrate as well as fix,the already produced CE-IIs.” 642Even if the issues with the EKV can be resolved,the GMD system is designed to repelonly a limited ICBM attack and would be easilyoverwhelmed by the simple countermeasuresthat would be deployed in a real attack, suchas “decoys” designed to confuse the system,or “structured attacks involving simultaneouslaunches and/or attacks on key components ofthe defense, notably its sensors.” 643But the MDA and its supporters in Congresscontinue to proclaim the system’s success andfund the program, in spite of the fact the GAOfound MDA was purposely obscuring the program’scost growth in an effort to make oversightof the program more difficult. 644 By thetime all 44 GBIs are deployed in 2017 the GMDprogram will have cost taxpayers $41 billion, atleast “30 to 50 percent more” than it shouldhave cost as compared to “successful programswith missiles of comparable complexity.” 645Despite obvious flaws, the MDA andCongress are moving forward with a $1 billiondecision based on a 30% success rate intests that fail to replicate a real world scenario.Almost immediately after the June test resultswere announced, production of the EKVwas resumed and the MDA announced it wasmoving forward with its plan to deploy theadditional 14 missiles. Even more concerning,Congress is moving to expand the programto develop an East Coast missile defense site,at a potential cost of billions more for taxpayers—theHouse’s version of the fiscal year 2015National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)included $20M for construction costs, and theMDA is already conducting an EnvironmentalImpact Study at four possible locations for thenew site.