A Walk in the Woods

A L U M N I P R O F I L ES W A R T H M O R E C O L L E G E B U L L E T I NF i n d i n g a n E n d t o R o l l o v e r sJ O S E P H K I M M E L ’ S “ K I N D E X ” H E L P S D E T E R M I N E V E H I C L E R O L L O V E R P R O B A B I L I T I E S .Joseph Kimmel ’44 has become a widelyrecognized expert on vehicle rolloverssince he developed his K Rollover StabilityIndex.The K Index is a mathematical formulafor determining a vehicle’s probability forrolling over in an accident.After it wasendorsed by the National Highway TrafficSafety Administration (NHTSA),leadingexperts,and the Center for Auto Safety,aconsumer advocacy organization,the KIndex received national attention in anextensive USA Today article last July 17.Kimmel’s interest in the rollover issuewas sparked after reading that NHTSA,inthe early 1990s,was concerned about theissue.Statistics from NHTSA in 1998show that 9,771 people were killed inrollovers.Kimmel’s K Index algorithm is primarilybased on a vehicle’s height,weight,and trackwidth,which is the distance between tiresmeasured from the center of one to the centerof the other on the opposite side.Wider,heavier,and lower vehicles have the lowestprobability of rollover.However,Kimmel says other factors,including road conditions,speed,and eventhe state in which the car is driven,must alsobe considered.He says 70 percent of rolloversare related to a vehicle’s dimensions,and 30percent are related to drivers and the drivingenvironment.Rollovers become a factorbecause of traffic congestion and driverdemographics.Kimmel says statistics show that bureaucratstend to drive more conservatively.“A lotof bureaucrats live in the Maryland suburbsjust outside of Washington,D.C.,and Baltimore,and there’s a lower incidence ofrollovers there,” he says.“The Beltwayaround Washington,D.C.,moves very slowlymuchof thetimebecauseof trafficcongestion.”Kimmel analyzed 189 popular model-year2000 vehicles last year,exclusively for USAToday. Using the K Index,it was determinedthat 55 of those vehicles would roll over in atleast 20 percent of accidents.According tothe article,of the 55 vehicles most prone toroll over,about 80 percent were sport utilityvehicles (SUVs).SUVs that received the worst ratings—JOSEPH KIMMEL’S PREDICTIONS ON AUTO ROLLOVERS HAVEBEEN PUBLISHED IN USA TODAY. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLESRECEIVED THE WORST RATINGS. WHAT DOES KIMMEL DRIVE?A MERCEDES AND AN AUDI.showing a probability of rolling over in 38 to43.9 percent of accidents—were the ChevroletTracker,Suzuki Vitara,and Toyota RAV4.The SUV least likely to rollover:the FordExcursion.It had a probability of rollover in13 percent of accidents.According to the article,Kimmel foundthat traditional passenger cars most likely toroll over,in 18 to 21.9 percent of accidents,arethe Chevrolet Metro,Suzuki Swift and ToyotaEcho.Among the cars least likely to roll over,in 1 to 3.9 percent of accidents,are the Acura3.5RL;Audi A6 Avant;Bentley;BMW 740,528;Dodge Viper and Ford Crown Victoria.Kimmel’s findings for 2001 vehicles areexpected to be published in USA Today in thenear future.A personal experience drew Kimmel to theissue and the decision to help solve the problem.“In 1933,I was 12 and holding my sister’s3-month-old son in a two-door Ford V-8 car.My sister lost control of the car on a gravelroad,and we rolled end over end.The roofwas crushed.We had to climb out of the shatteredwindows.Fortunately,everyone wasOK.Cars were very lightweight back thencompared with now,” says Kimmel,whoowns two cars—a 1989 420 SEL Mercedes(“It’s 4,800 pounds and has a 122-inch wheelbase”) and a 1999 Audi A42.8 (“It’s all-wheeldrive and can go anywhere”).In January,NHTSA announced its ownrating system for determining a vehicle’sprobability for rolling over.“The government’srating system has just five steps.Mine is more precise with 10 gradations,”says Kimmel.He also states that the government’sfigures are too gross and don’taccount for different rates in differentstates.To develop his K Index,Kimmel,anindustrial economist,used his statisticsbackground.He majored in economics atSwarthmore and has a master’s in economicsfrom the University of Pittsburgh.He operates two businesses:JWK Associates,a management consulting company,and Transportation Analysis Institute.Clients of his consulting services haveincluded the Red Cross,Citibank,and thefederal government,where he helped reorganizeSocial Security’s supplementalsecurity income and disability insuranceoperations for the Department of Health andHuman Services.Kimmel and his wife,Elizabeth BlackburnKimmel ’44,have lived in Radnor,Pa.,since1953.In addition to his businesses,Kimmel isactive in local Republican politics.He was thefounder of the Republican New Look,a reformgroup that ended Republican patronagein the township’s government workforce,andfor 10 years,he has written a weekly politicalcolumn for the local Suburban and WayneTimes newspaper.Looking to the future,Kimmel sees anotable reduction in the number of vehiclerollovers with the increased use of vehicle stabilitysystems.Stability systems,now widelyavailable on high-end cars,work by controllingthe skid,which is often what precedes aroll over.According to Tier One,a market researchorganization for the automotive industry,it’spredicted that by 2008 more than 21 percentof all North American built vehicles will comewith some form of a stability-enhancing system.That’s a huge increase from just 3 percentlast year.“The stability system is tied into the brakingsystem.It will stop a skid by alternatingthe braking pressure on each wheel,” Kimmelsays.“I think having them in more vehicles isa very good idea.They’re very effective.”—Audree PennerRYAN RICHARDS46