Los flujos de oro y el ajuste externo Argentina 1903-1913

26xviiEste papel del Banco de Inglaterra fue rechazado por McCloskey y Zecher quienesnotaron que en 1913 el producto bruto de Gran Bretaña era aproximadamente la mitad delde Estados Unidos.xviiiVer capítulo 8 de Johnston y DiNardo.xix Puede llamar la atención que se obtengan correlaciones negativas, pero el tema no es desconocidoen la literatura sobre el patrón oro. Eichengreen (1990, pág. 113/114) dice: “When central banksintervened in financial markets , it is suggested, they did so mechanically, obeying ‘rules of the game’which dictated that they only reinforce the impact on domestic money and credit markets of balance ofpayments conditions. For example, a central bank losing reserves would raise its discount rate whilethe central bank gaining reserves would lower its discount rate, thereby reinforcing one another’sefforts to restore external balance. “xx Ford (a), pág.182, examinando la crisis de 1913, escribió: “It does seem unlikely, especially in 1913,that the higher rates of interest in Argentina attracted any short-term funds from Europe because ofthe risk premium and possible exchange loss. Whereas perfect confidence was placed in the poundsterling and the fixity of its tie with gold, the essence of equilibrating short-term capital movements, thesame could not be said for the peso. It was easy to a creditor country to obtain immediate relief frompressure on its exchanges by contracting its foreign lending, long and short: in a period of stringencyit was difficult or even impossible for a debtor country (with a past history of depreciation) to offset goldexports by its borrowing abroad. In short, in 1912-13 Britain gained relief in her balance of paymentsat the expense of making certain debtor countries (one of whom was Argentina) uncomfortable”.xxiFord (a) examina aspectos económicos de las Guerras de los Balcanes relacionados con Argentinaen el capítulo X de su libro.xxiiEn la regresión 1, cuando no se incluyen como regresores las variables ficticias por lasobservaciones extremas de Agosto de 1909 y Abril de 1910, el coeficiente del término autoregresivodisminuye a 0.351 y varios tests no son satisfactorios (correlograma de residuos, correlograma deresiduos al cuadrado, normalidad de los residuos, heteroscedasticidad de White). Dificultadessimilares y también en el test ARCH se dan en la regresión 2