HOMO JIHADICUS

Militant Islam is also present in Azerbaijan, but its scale pales in comparison
to that of the Northern Caucasus. From the beginning of the 2000s several minor
armed incidents took place in the country (for example clashes with the
security forces and attacks on them in the north of the country, a grenade attack
on the Abu Bakr mosque in Baku in 2008). Most of them were perpetrated
by radicals who splintered from the group formed around Qamet Suleymanov
and militants who previously fought in the Northern Caucasus (for example Ilgar
Mollachiev). In 2008 they tried to establish (probably with assistance from
Dagestani militants) armed groups in northern Azerbaijan (the so called Forest
Brothers) and Sumgait, but they were dismantled during a police operation.
Several hundred Azerbaijani Muslims, starting from 1999, have also fought
in the Northern Caucasus, as well as in Afghanistan and Pakistan (between
1999 and 2013 at least 33 citizens of Azerbaijan were killed while fighting in the
Northern Caucasus, and 23 in Afghanistan; in total around 200-250 Azerbaijanis
have fought in Afghanistan) 229 .
The Islamic factor (including the participation of Azerbaijanis in jihad in the
Middle East), has limited influence due to the society’s distancing towards socially
and politically active Islam and the secular character of the Azerbaijani
state and regime. It does not thus constitute a serious challenge for Azerbaijan’s
security and stability. Potential Islam-related threats are secondary, as
they are derived from threats of a political nature. In the internal dimension,
the risk of the destructive activation of Islamic groups (including militant Islam)
and conflict breaking out between particular Islamic currents (especially
between the Shias and Sunnis 230 ), seems possibly only were there to be a serious
political crisis (caused for example by social unrest). In the external dimension,
the Islamic factor can be exploited by outside actors (mainly Russia
and Iran) to destabilise the situation in Azerbaijan and/or influence country’s
foreign policy.
A particularly large risk is associated with Russian policy towards Azerbaijan.
Russia is trying to rebuild its position in the post-Soviet area, and in the case
of Azerbaijan its goal is to pressure Baku into cooperation with Moscow (for
tween the Salafists and Harijis broke out, based on a dispute regarding the mandatory status
of participating in the jihad in Syria. So far, however, the Harijis have not carried out
any armed or terrorist attacks in Sumgait itself. They are under constant surveillance by
the Azerbaijani security services: http://www.eurasianet.org/node/68341
229
http://jihadology.net/2014/01/28/guest-post-azerbaijani-foreign-fighters-in-syria
230
http://carnegieendowment.org/2013/03/18/syrian-crisis-view-from-azerbaijan
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