INL_01Feb2016_Electronic_Version

More documents

Recommendations

Info

10 BUSINESSLINK Though below peak, business confidence improves Michael Gordon The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER)Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion showed that business confidence improved in late 2015, although it remains below the peak seen in 2014 when the economy was humming along at around a 4% annual growth pace. Indicators of pricing pressures also picked up compared to September, although they did not suggest a near-term breakout in inflation from its very weak recent pace. The sharp rise in general business sentiment, from a net -10% to +13%, overstates the case: this measure of confidence had plunged in the September quarter even as the other details of the survey pointed to an improvement in conditions. Firms’ own reported activity, which corresponds much more closely with GDP growth, saw a more modest increase from 12% to 18%. Consistent confidence Confidence at these levels is broadly consistent with our current forecast of 0.6% GDP growth in the December quarter, with some mild upside risk, following on from a 0.9% rise in the September quarter. There is no doubt that economic conditions strengthened over the second half of 2015 compared to the weak first half. Nevertheless, a number of headwinds to growth, including weak returns from dairying and the plateauing of the Christchurch rebuild, suggest that the days of 1% growth per quarter are well and truly past for this cycle. Price pressures The various indicators of price pressures painted a stronger picture compared to the September quarter, though still quite benign compared to a longer history. Capacity utilisation rose from 92% to 93%, nearing the record high reached last June, and 17% of firms reported that capacity was their biggest constraint on growth, the highest share in the history of the survey. Curiously, though, firms seem less inclined to address that constraint: planned investment in buildings and machinery fell for the third straight quarter. There are indications that firms may be looking to people power to address those constraints instead. Actual and intended hiring remained at historically high levels, and the reported difficulty of finding skilled workers rose again after having eased in the previous two quarters. Overall, though, labour remains a much less severe constraint today than it was during the boom of mid- 2000s. Service sector robust Meanwhile, a net 5% of firms said that they had increased prices over the last quarter, compared to a net 9% reporting price decreases in the September quarter. However, the turnaround was concentrated in the services sector, and we suspect this was another case where the September quarter weakness was overstated. In sectors such as manufacturing and retailing, where the weaker New Zealand dollar could be expected to put upward pressure on costs and prices, there is certainly a desire to raise prices but little evidence that firms have been able to do so yet. We still expect the lower exchange rate to have some effect on tradable goods prices over the next year. But with world oil prices plunging for the second time in two years, it now looks likely that headline inflation will remain below 1% for most if not all of 2016. Michael Gordon is Senior Economist at Westpac Banking Group New Zealand February 01, 2016 UP for ‘serious engagement’ with Diaspora Two New Zealanders receive State PBD Award Suman Kapoor receiving the ‘UP Pravasi Ratna Award’ from UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav in Agra on January 4, 2016 The Uttar Pradesh government is keen to engage more seriously with the Indian Diaspora and seek Foreign Direct Investment State Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav said. Speaking at the ‘UP Pravasi Divas,’ a regional conference held in Agra on January 4, 2016, he said that his government would soon develop policies and programmes to attract the Indian Diaspora. “We need your investment, support and cooperation,” he told the delegates attending the three-day Conference held from January 4 to January 6, 2016. Announcing that the ‘UP Pravasi Divas’ will be an annual event hosted in various cities of the State, Mr Yadav said,” We are here in this ‘Taj City’ not only to welcome you but also invite you to be partners and assist in our development efforts and secure Dr Rajen Prasad receiving the ‘UP Pravasi Ratna Award’ from UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav in Agra on January 4, 2016 the rightful place for UP in the country,” he said. NRI Department Principal Secretary Sanjiv Sharan said that the State government recently established the Department to look into the grievances of NRIs and helping investors in the State. A coffee table book is being planned aimed at promoting government policies and familiarising NRIs with progress and opportunities our State. The Department will launch a new portal for NRIs to facilitate and resolve their issues,” Mr Sharan said. Mr Yadav later honoured 16 people of Uttar Pradesh origin with the ‘UP Pravasi Ratna Awards.’Among them were Commonwealth Special Envoy to Lesotho and former Labour MP Dr Rajen Prasad and Hamilton based community worker Suman Kapoor. National MP Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi was also present at the event. -VR Get the Foundation for Career Success early childhood education business health 0800 88 6922 nzcc.ac.nz ENROL TODAY ®
February 0 1, 2016 BUSINESSLINK 11 Global woes do not dampen the Kiwi spirit Tony Alexander Investors in shares and businesses exposed to mineral commodity prices have started the year on a bad note with some major price declines – record New Year falls in share prices in fact. The MSCI measure of global equities is almost officially into a 20% decline bear market from the peak last May and last month, the Dow Jones shed another 1.3% to be down 9.5% since December 31 and 14% from the May peak. Chinese transition The rout has been caused partly by worries about the Chinese economy, the lack of success of the authorities there in supporting growth, and recent ham-fisted efforts to stem the correction in Chinese share prices from unrealistically high levels. China’s economy is transitioning from dependence upon exports, manufacturing, and fixed asset investment toward private consumption. However, while the former phase is underway the latter remains elusive and no-one knows when household spending will truly take over as the main growth driver. But before it does so, there could be long-lived ructions associated with excess capacity, high debt, bloated state-owned enterprises, and financial regulation. Middle East worsens Conditions in the Middle East are also worsening whether measured by the deteriorating relationship between the two major players of Iran (Shite) and Saudi Arabia (Sunni), the war waged by ISIS across much of the region, Libya’s instability, the continuing Israeli occupation and intifada, Turkey’s fight with the Kurds, or plummeting oil receipts. Europe nervous The European Union continues to show more signs of friction and falling apart than smoothing of disputes and cohesiveness against threats from Russia, terrorists, millions of culturally alien refugees and economic migrants. Borders are being reinstated, recently agreed fiscal rules are being resented and broken, the UK will vote on discontinuing EU membership, the Euro is still at risk of falling apart if Greece again needs more bailout money, and strongly regulated economies are poorly placed to adapt in a world where adaptability to change is more vital than ever before. The American and Australian economies have some good underlying momentum with strong jobs growth in both and the Australian services sector and tourism helping offset the worsening minerals sector downturn. But the effect and pace of US monetary policy tightening which started in December 2015 is a huge source of uncertainty facing the global economy this year, especially with regard to capital flows out of struggling and shrinking emerging economies. Cause for optimism Yet as we emphasised last year, New Zealand has plenty of reasons for not getting pessimistic about the impact of events offshore. House construction continues to grow with annual consent numbers now at a ten-year high of 26,800 compared with only 13,500 in the middle of 2011. The value of non-residential building consents now stands at a record $5.8billion compared with $3.8billion three years ago. The tourism sector is booming with visitor numbers ahead by 9% in the past year and spending ahead a massive 38%. Most non-dairy exports are doing well. El Nino (a phenomenon of continuous warming of surface sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean) is even proving less severe in its impact than feared, though it remains a risk to agricultural production levels. Business confidence up Business confidence has just improved according to the quarterly survey of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) to a net 15% optimistic from -15% in the September quarter and an average of +6%. A net 14% of businesses plan boosting staff numbers versus an average 6%. A net 10% plan boosting investment compared with an average of 2%. There is support for growth from the slowly weakening New Zealand Dollar, and the low interest rates are acting as a stimulus. We learnt that inflation for calendar 2015 was not 0.3% as forecast but only 0.1%, courtesy of the December quarter average cost of living falling 0.5% rather than the expected 0.3%. The chances of even further monetary policy easing in New Zealand have risen, the currency edged lower following the data release, and low interest rates look set to be with us for many, many years. Migration mix Let us throw booming net immigration into the mix – now at a gain of almost 64,000 in the year to November – and we see good growth ahead this year for the economy. In other words, our central message last year of many factors underpinning New Zealand growth has not changed, even taking into account the sharemarket wobbles, downside risk to dairy prices, and deeper worries about China’s economy. Businesses should continue to seek out good staff. Construction, retailing, tourism and the services sectors are likely to perform well, funding costs will stay low and perhaps decline further, and the NZD will be somewhat suppressed in spite of good New Zealand growth by China worries and weak global commodity prices. BNZ is the Title Sponsor and Sponsor of the ‘Best Large Business’ and the ‘Supreme Business of the Year’ of the Indian Newslink Indian Business Awards 2016. Always Take The Best Price Home ! payments 18NO & No Interest* Minimum purchase $499. Offer expires 08/02/2016 DALLAS 2 SEATER + 3 SEATER $ 899 Queen Mattress $329 + Queen NZ made Base $359 HOT! SKYLER 4 PCE QUEEN BEDROOM SUITE $1299 Queen Bed frame + Tallboy + 2 Bedside Tables KARINA ADJUSTABLE HEADRESTS TOBY CORNER SUITE INCLUDES 4 BUILT-IN RECLINERS AND DRINK CONSOLE LIAM $1299 CORNER SUITE INCLUDES 3 BUILT-IN RECLINERS $ AND DRINK CONSOLE 1799 $ 4 RECLINERS 1799 3 RECLINERS Mattress Warranty also available in Walnut colour Base Warranty $ ADAM SOFA BED 399 CAPTAIN SINGLE BED WITH A TRUNDLE $ & 3 STORAGE DRAWER 549 NOW ONLY FREE 2 STORAGE DRAWERS also available in White colour New Arrival $ KINGSTON FUTON BED 499 $499 EVA TWIN SINGLE BUNK BED $599 also available in different colours $ EMILY SOFA BED 499 NOLAN 4 PCE QUEEN BEDROOM SUITE $1299 Queen Bed frame + Tallboy + 2 Bedside Tables DALLAS SOFA BED $ INCLUDES DOUBLE SIZE MATTRESS 899 also available in black Inner Spring Mattress Inner Spring Mattress MERCEDES SOFA BED $ 899 INCLUDES DOUBLE SIZE MATTRESS If you find a lower advertised price at one of our competitors on the same product we stock, we will ensure you always take home the best price by matching competitor’s price advertised less 10%. Special conditions apply. see our store or website for more details. 19 STORES ACROSS NORTH ISLAND Whangarei | Albany | St Lukes | Henderson | Mt Roskill | Sylvia Park | Botany | Manukau | Pukekohe Hamilton | Mt Maunganui | Tauranga | New Plymouth | Hastings | Palmerston North | Prorirua | Lower Hutt All prices exclude accessories, mattress sold separately. Visit www.pkfurniture.co.nz to find your nearest store!
Page 1 and 2: 04 Neglect endangers our forest wea
Page 3 and 4: February 0 1, 2016 HOMELINK 3 Fiery
Page 5 and 6: February 0 1, 2016 HOMELINK 5 Error
Page 7 and 8: February 0 1, 2016 EDUCATIONLINK 7
Page 9: February 0 1, 2016 BUSINESSLINK 9 I
Page 13 and 14: February 0 1, 2016 VIEWLINK 13 The
Page 15 and 16: February 0 1, 2016 ENTERTAINMENTLIN
Page 17 and 18: February 0 1, 2016 COMMUNITYLINK 17
Page 19 and 20: February 0 1, 2016 COMMUNITYLINK 19
Page 21 and 22: February 0 1, 2016 Artlink with Rat

INL_01Feb2016_Electronic_Version

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?