Indian Newslink July 15 Digital Edition

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10 JULY 15, 2016 BUSINESSLINK Hmm, blame it on Brexit and everything else Economic analysis cannot tell you when the price of a widely held and easily accessible asset like housing has reached a peak. It cannot tell you what the decline will look like. It cannot tell you when things will bottom out. This is because while economics deals with human interactions in the trading of goods, services, assets and labour, motivators of these transactions change over time. These motivators have definitely altered post-GFC; hence, essentially all economic forecasts since 2007 have been wrong. Motivators of investment asset purchases cannot be modelled even in steady times which we liked to think prevailed, sort of, in the period before the GFC of 2008-2009. Therefore, nothing can tell you when an asset market represents dangerous buying except gut instinct based upon one’s experience of such cycles in the past. Wellington scene To help you get a gut instinct for the current housing market and why I think we have now entered the earliest stages of the end game, consider the case of the regions, or more specifically Wellington. Over 2014 and early last year, we used to write about how Auckland prices had risen some 90% since 2009 but Wellington had gained just 6%. Wellington was a screaming buy. But few people transacted. Over a year ago, you could pick up good property for what people now consider to be a song. Now we see that prices are soaring, listings have collapsed, and people are flocking to open homes to buy something, anything. Has the Wellington economy suddenly taken off? No. Have average incomes soared? No. Local buyers All that has happened is that just over a year ago, or even less that that according to some people, Auckland buyers appeared. Seeing these buyers purchasing properties at low prices relative to Auckland, offering good yields, the locals jumped on the bandwagon. And around the country, it is the locals driving regional housing markets. Not Aucklanders. Not foreign buyers even though to reinforce their buying determination people swap stories of Chinese buying property – Rotorua being a favoured location apparently. But just under a year ago, I was told a story of Chinese buying in the Hutt Valley. It does not matter whether such buying is occurring or not. People simply swap such stories to help them justify their decision to buy anything. Nothing out of the ordinary there. We have seen it before. These are the late-cycle buyers now in play, the market entrants who have capitulated from their view that prices would fall. Matter of Moment But it pays to think in terms of what is becoming, in former Prime Minister David Lange’s language, a ‘matter of moment.’ And what is becoming important is this. Politicians globally are being sideswiped by voters choosing to express their discontent at many of the trends they see around them – Immigration, housing affordability, young losing out to the old, regions suffering compared with the city agglomerations. Divisions have become more apparent and voters are expressing their concern about these divisions, about those cast aside and derided, or somehow left behind. Hence the Brexit success in the UK, the strong support for Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump in the United States, the rising support for far right and far left parties throughout Europe, and the miscalculation of Malcolm Turnbull across the Tasman in calling an early election which he may win – just. How is this relevant to New Zealand and our housing market? We like to think of our society as egalitarian, and we get up ourselves discussing how we are doing well while foreign economies and societies struggle with an amazing range of intense problems. They include the secular decline of sclerotic Europe from which the British have now detached themselves; expansion of China which is about to run into the twin problems of a failing economic model and military superiority of other powers, yet again, such as the United States and Japan; the traditional insularity of the United States and divisive Presidential election contest; the inability of Australia to produce a government able to arrest the deterioration in government accounts and competitiveness; the failure yet again of the socialist model, this time in Venezuela. And so on. Tony Alexander is the Chief Economist at Bank of New Zealand (BNZ). The above article is a part of his economic commentary on July 7, 2016. For full text, please visit www. tonyalexander.co.nz. BNZ is the Title Sponsor and Sponsor of the ‘Supreme Business of the Year’ and ‘Best Large Business’ Categories of the Ninth Annual Indian Newslink Indian Business Awards 2016. BNZ is also the Title Sponsor of the Sixth Indian Newslink Sir Anand Satyanand Lecture scheduled to be held at Pullman Hotel Auckland on Monday, July 25, 2016. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler is the Guest Speaker. For more details and tickets, please call (09) 5336377 or (09) 3910203. Email editor@indiannewslink.co.nz More skilled migrants needed for growth HELPING FAMILIES GET AHEAD KANWALJIT SINGH BAKSHI NATIONAL LIST MP June Ranson RT HON JOHN KEY PRIME MINISTER Funded by the ParliamentaryService & authorisedbyJohnKey MP,ExecutiveWing, Parliament, Molesworth St,Wellington New Zealand needs more skilled migrants and investment to maintain its economic growth and standard of living. Editor’s Note: Ms Ranson was responding to a call made by New Zealand First Leader and Member of DR PARMJEET PARMAR NATIONAL LIST MP Kanwaljit’s email: bakshi.mp@parliament.govt.nz Parmjeet’s email: parmjeet.parmar@parliament.govt.nz HON SAM LOTU IIGA MINISTER FOR ETHNIC COMMUNITIES www.national.org.nz Parliament Winston Peters for permanent residence to be cut to 7000 to 15,000 people maximum. For additional reading on the subject, please go to Viewlink in this issue. Mr Peters’ comments are ironic, given that permanent residence approvals were higher under Labour than National, and that they were at their highest when Mr Peters was supporting the Labour Government. This fact surely makes a mockery out of his advice. Declining births The birth rate in New Zealand is dropping, baby boomers are retiring and for these reasons it is essential for us to have skilled migrants coming to the country if we want to maintain our standard economic growth and continue with our standard of living, for example, medical and superannuation. New Zealand also has the situation that many small to medium-sized companies owned and operated by the baby boomers have no succession plans. Do we want these companies to close down and put their staff out of work, simply because there is no one with the skills and knowledge to take them over? Growing pains New Zealand is currently going through growing pains as a result of a growth period – this is a good thing. The alternative is no growth at all. Infrastructure has been neglected for years by successive governments and now at long last we are seeing movement happening to improve the infrastructure and this can be seen in any part of the country as you drive through. Oddly, the very people who are demanding the skilled migrant numbers be cut are the same people who want refugee numbers increased. This government has already cancelled the ‘Adult Child and Sibling Policy,’ which allowed sibling skilled or unskilled to join their families. Importantly, Immigration New Zealand (INZ) does have a very tight check on who comes to NZ under permanent residence. June Ranson is Chairperson of the New Zealand Association for Migration and Investment (NZAMI), which is a leading professional association for immigration specialists. The Association comprises lawyers and licensed immigration advisers who must uphold professional standards and comply with the Association’s strict Code of Ethics. For more information, please visit www.nzami. co.nz.
JULY 15, 2016 Dame Susan Devoy Women are the backbone of families, communities, businesses and economies. We’ve come a long way but we still have a very long way to go. Eighty-three years ago, the first woman was elected to our Parliament but women are not making the inroads into decision making or leadership roles we should be. Only 31% of our MPs are women, while women from ethnic minorities make up a very small percentage of MPs. Female public servant CEOs are up from 16% to 40% in just 5 years, but most head smaller departments. And once again, women from ethnic minorities barely feature as CEOs. Government makes hundreds of appointments to public boards every year: This is an area where ministers can have an immediate impact on gender as well as ethnic equity. Equal opportunity I am not saying appoint people to boards just because they are women: we need the best person for the job but it doesn’t make sense that the best person for the job is always men. Or people from the same ethnic group. Good governance skills are not inherently male skills: I am convinced there are women with the right expertise for these roles. A good board director does not need to be an expert on a board’s subject matter: If this were true then most cabinet ministers would never be put in charge of portfolios they are not subject experts on. Directors need operational understanding as well as strategic and common sense. Many women are natural CEOS, in charge of their own families: management and leadership is something we do every day. How many women are involved in community groups and voluntary organisations? It’s critical that women ensure not only put themselves forward for jobs and positions: but that we encourage each other to do so too. Dame Susan Devoy is Race Relations Commissioner of New Zealand. www.hrc.co.nz WOMEN IN BUSINESS 11 Ashika Lal Banking is often seen as being dominated by men – but at ASB, Ashika Lal has thrived, achieving both her own ambitions and those of her many business customers. That’s mainly due to her own hard work and strong business acumen, but she’s also grateful for ASB’s inclusive environment, where everyone is free to contribute to the success of the business. Ashika was born in Suva, Fiji, and raised and educated in New Zealand. She started in banking 17 years’ ago, mostly working with business clients. During her career she has used her expertise to make positive changes to the way the bank works with business, putting in place better processes and better service standards. At ASB she is now in a senior role as a Commercial Manager, with a team of three and a portfolio of clients. “I have a passion for business, and especially franchise businesses. My clients operate in a range of industries, including manufacturing, importing and exporting. I enjoy working with them to facilitate leveraged cashflow funding and transaction banking services.” Ashika’s insights and experience have been requested outside of the business where she has presented on banking options for business owners at events organised by the IRD, Franchise New Zealand, Manukau City Council, Auckland Business Expo and the Indian Business Association. “I’m so proud of the work we do at ASB to help our customers succeed. They create the wealth and employment that grows our economy. ASB helps with their banking services, but even more imp¬ortantly through committed support and service. ASB is also a very good corporate citizen. It’s active in the community, and is very committed to an open and equal employment approach. At ASB I know I can succeed through my own hard work and knowledge.” asb.co.nz/business In business leads and success follows. Whether you’re aiming to become a trusted local name, or working with international partners, your ambitions are what give your business the potential for success. For more details on how we can help you achieve your ambitions call Ashika Lal on 021 984 393. Join us on ASB Bank Limited PPU51637 Shobhna Golian Experience and expertise are among the pre-requisites of legal practitioners and those with a friendly approach, faster accessibility, and sincere desire to promote customer care earn the respect of businesses and the resident communities. Shobhna Golian is one of the most prominent lawyers, admired for her legal acumen not only by businesses and individuals but also community organisations and charitable institutions. Her firm, Shobhna & Co Law Office, located at 638 Great South Road in Greenlane/Ellerslie offers a range of legal services including Property Law, Commercial Law, Trusts, Wills & Estates Administration, Family Law, General Practice and Other Specialist Services. Key Successes The practice has succeeded because it has steadily grown over the past 24 years since its establishment on May 4, 1992. Shobhna firmly believes in her slogan of providing Shivani Arora Women of Indian origin have emerged as great team players and innovative businesspersons in New Zealand and among those known for their spirit of adventure and business acumen is Shivani Arora, Director of India Gate Restaurant, Shivani Vegetarian Restaurants (Papatoetoe and Mt Eden) and other enterprises, each of which is marked for high levels of productivity, staff motivation and profitability. Pursuing Excellence Shivani was the winner of the ‘Best Businesswoman of the Year’ Award at the Indian Newslink Indian Business Awards 2013. The judges described her as “excellent business leader,’ and said that she has been instrumental in setting high standards of service leading to customer growth. Shivani is dedicated to excellence and is very clear Trusted Legal Services and Advice. She has maintained that one of the driving factors to the success of the practice has included the huge loyalty factor of her existing clients. The practice is proud to record that its first clients are still clients of the firm today. It is all about understanding the clients’ needs and being able to provide quality service. Making a Difference Shobhna’s vision is to make a difference to her clients by understanding the particular need or problem, and to provide legal solutions tailored to those needs. She sees her clients long-term – it is quality focused and as such, the provision of legal services to clients as a process of educating them about their rights and obligations. Shobhna understands and acknowledges that going to see a lawyer can be a seriously daunting process for clients. As such, the firm can be seen as a steppingstone for clients where they can telephone for free legal advice, whether this is to reinforce what clients are thinking, or to guide them as to their options. An initial free consultation service in her office can be arranged by appointment. about the level of quality required in the business. From a superette of which she was the owner many years ago to the successful ‘India Gate’ brand and Nando’s, she has demonstrated that a strong focus on marketing and sales, and good alignment in values with team are ingredients of success. Her husband Kuldeep Arora has been a pillar of strength, support and understanding, guiding her through her ambitions with prudent management. Unique blend Shivani augments her husband’s professional success with her own unique blend of passion, foresight, caution, planning, control and accountability. Challenges come in various forms and Shivani faces them with determination to succeed. With a positive attitude and good teamwork, she endeavours to find the right solutions to problems. While India Gate in Auckland’s elite suburb of Epsom is patronised by hundreds of diners, visiting Indian film stars, industrialists and others, the other two Restaurants offer a superb experience to Aucklanders and visitors to the City. 56180 15163 0716_V2 Indian Newslink Ad 8.5x13cm.indd 1 12/07/16 7:39 am PROPERTYLAW FAMILYLAW COMMERCIAL LAW TRUST,WILLS &ESTATE ADMINISTRATION INCORPORATED SOCIETIES GENERAL PRACTICE OTHER SPECIALIST SERVICES FREE INITIAL CONSULTATION QUALITY&PERSONALISED SERVICE SHOBHNA GOLIAN LL.B PRINCIPAL GROUND FLOOR, 638 GREAT SOUTH ROAD, GREENLANE-ELLERSLIE, AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND P. (09) 625 7086 F. (09) 526 4280 M. 021 625 708 E. SHOBHNA@SHOBHNALAW.CO.NZ DX EP70504 WWW.SHOBHNALAW.CO.NZ FOR FULL DETAILS AND ADVERTISEMENT REFER PAGE 5 23 Eric Baker Place,Papatoetoe |905 Dominion Road,MtRoskil Papatoetoe 09 250 4474 Pure 100% Vegetarian Restaurant, Chaats,Sweets&Snacks South Indian Buffet -$12.99 PP –Sat &Sun Lunch NorthIndian Buffet -$14.99PP –Thu to SatDinner 2Paratha for$5with pickle &Raita –Mon to Thu Toll Free 0800 Shivani Mt Roskil 09 620 0707
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