e_Paper 4-12-2016

Opinion 21
South Korea’s quest for stability
The pursuit of strategic stability in Far East Asia
DT
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2016
P O S T
BREAKFAST
• Muhammad Zamir
South Korea is facing a
crisis -- both with regard
to the future of its current
president as well as the
future dynamics expected in
bilateral relations with the US after
Trump’s surprising victory. This
has, however, not stopped it from
continuing its efforts to ensure
strategic stability in the Far East.
South Korean President Park
Geun-hye’s approval ratings have
dipped into single digits -- and
protests calling for her ouster over
her relationship with long-time
confidante Choi Soon-Sil appear to
have gained ground since October.
Park has issued public apologies
but the opposition is now saying
that they will move to impeach her
within the next few days.
Park will be suspended from
official duties and replaced by
the prime minister if parliament
passes the impeachment motion.
The Constitutional Court would
subsequently need to approve
the impeachment. However, that
is being taken for granted at this
point.
Despite these difficulties,
the Republic of Korea has proactively
been sensitising the need
for NATO as well as its ally, the
US, recognising the seriousness
of the evolving situation in Far
East Asia with special reference
to the provocative activities
being undertaken by its northern
neighbour -- the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea.
This momentum has continued
since North Korea carried out its
fifth nuclear test.
Its Foreign Minister Yun
Byung-se has recently visited
Brussels and briefed NATO’s
North Atlantic Council (NAC),
the NATO Secretary-General
Jens Stoltenberg, and EU’s High
Representative for Foreign Affairs
and Security Policy Federica
Mogherini about the security
situation of the Korean Peninsula.
The gravity of the North Korean
nuclear and missile programs was
underscored with the expectation
that both NATO and the EU would
be willing to respond to a change
in future calculus because of North
Korea’ s persistent magnitude
and frequency of nuclear tests
and firing of ballistic missiles of
various types.
It was explained that, through
How will ROK-US-Japan trilateral cooperation look in the near future?
such action and plutonium
reprocessing, the DPRK had
violated UN Security Council
resolutions. It was pointed out
that North Korea’s advances in
intercontinental ballistic missile
(ICBM) and submarine-launched
ballistic missile (SLBM) capabilities
had made Pyongyang a direct
threat even to the continental US.
This equation meant that Europe
was also within range.
He also highlighted the need for
NATO to persuade the UN to adopt
not only a new Security Council
resolution to close the loopholes
in the existing UN Security Council
Resolution 2270, but also to take
other necessary reliable deterrence
measures required for global peace
and stability and for overcoming
new challenges created through
cyber terrorism.
The minister also drew the
attention of both NATO and the
EU to the observation of the
International Telecommunications
Union (ITU) in this regard and
suggested that ROK looked
forward to the launch of the
first Korea-NATO Cyber Defense
Consultative Meeting before the
end of this year.
Having drawn attention to
ROK’s close association with
NATO and the EU, Minister Yun
then suggested that NATO could
deepen its cooperation with ROK
to defeat terrorism and ensure
cyber security, along with nuclear,
maritime, and space security--
where both parties shared a
domain and had common stakes.
He also recalled the issuance of the
recent UN Security Council press
statement which had invoked
Article 41 of the UN Charter and
asked NATO members to consider
taking more resolute measures
on relations with North Korea, as
stipulated in Article 41 -- including
the possibility of cutting off and
downgrading diplomatic relations
with Pyongyang.
One must admit that this was a
very hands-on approach.
This exhaustive approach
was taken forward during the
2016 Northeast Asia Peace and
Cooperation Forum (NAPCI) held
on October 6 and 7 in Washington
DC. This time, other dimensions
were added to the agenda. This
included nuclear safety where
participants shared their view
about the establishment of the
proposed “Northeast Asia Nuclear
Safety Consultative Body” led
by the ROK, Japan, and China.
They also discussed disaster
management and the need to share
information on their countries’
disaster response systems and the
need for governments, the private
sector, the academia, and the civil
society to play a greater role in this
sector.
After this, the effort towards
drawing greater attention to peace
and stability in North East Asia,
despite provocation from DPRK
was taken forward through a ROK-
US special ministerial meeting on
October 19. It brought together
Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se
and Defense Minister Han Min-koo
from the ROK, and their respective
US counterparts -- Secretary of
State John Kerry and Secretary of
Defense Ashton Carter.
The US reaffirmed their
steadfast coordination on nuclear
and other issues pertaining
to North Korea and discussed
ways on how the international
community can toughen acrossthe-board
sanctions and intensify
pressure on North Korea in a
holistic manner. It was also agreed
that recently launched ROK-US
North Korean Human Rights
Consultation could be used to
promote human rights in North
Korea.
It was also underlined that both
governments would try to expand
the strategy and policy aspects of
bilateral cooperation within the
existing ROK-US alliance. To that
end, the secretaries and ministers
decided to establish a high-level
Extended Deterrence Strategy and
Consultation Group (EDSCG) to be
co-chaired by representatives from
the Ministry of National Defense,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the
Department of Defense, and
the Department of State, with
participation from other relevant
agencies. They also highlighted
the importance of swift Security
Council action to facilitate the
adoption of a new resolution to
further strengthen international
response to North Korea’s
unlawful September 9 nuclear test.
As part of those efforts, the
secretaries and the ministers
reaffirmed their commitment to
further enhance ROK-US-Japan
trilateral cooperation and regional
stability through wide-ranging and
close consultations. It was also
highlighted that the momentum
initiated through the March
2016 trilateral summit between
President Obama, President Park,
and Prime Minister Abe and the
September Trilateral Ministerial
Meeting in New York on the
margins of the 71st UNGA, was an
important process and needed to
be sustained with seriousness.
As partners in the Global
Coalition to Counter ISIL, the
meeting also condemned the
violence and suffering created
through IS’s violent extremism.
The ROK also pledged to
maintain its current level of
annual humanitarian assistance
at $44 million every year for the
next three years to tackle the
unprecedented refugee crisis and
also committed an additional
$100m beyond that level if so
required within the next three
years.
ROK also reaffirmed its
REUTERS
The secretaries
and the ministers
reaffirmed their
commitment to
further enhance
ROK-US-Japan
trilateral cooperation
and regional stability
contribution of $255m for
continued promotion of
peacekeeping activities in
Afghanistan. The other interesting
aspect was reaffirmation by ROK
that given the importance of
alleviating and adapting to climate
change, ROK would phase down
the production and consumption
of hydro fluorocarbons consistent
with the Montreal Protocol.
One must admit that these
positive meetings within a short
span of time have raised ROK’s
profile not only within Far East
Asia but also in the adjoining
region. It has also probably been
the reason why Russia and China
have now pushed for resumption
of the six-party talks on denuclearisation
in North Korea.
These talks, it may be recalled,
also involve Japan, ROK, and the
US -- but have been on hold since
2008.
This dynamics will consequently
attract special attention because
of the evolving internal Korean
political crisis, and also because of
emerging trends after Trump takes
over in January. •
Muhammad Zamir, a former
Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in
foreign affairs, right to information, and
good governance.