DT e-Paper, Thursday, December 15, 2016

10
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2016
DT
World
ANALYSIS
Syria, Tillerson test Trump’s stance on Russia
• Tribune International Desk
Aleppo’s fall to Syrian government
forces is shaping up as the first major
test of President-elect Donald
Trump’s desire to cooperate with
Russia, whose military support has
proven pivotal in Syria’s civil war.
The death and destruction in the
city is only renewing Democratic
and Republican concern with
Trump’s possible new path, reports
The Associated Press.
Though Trump has been vague
about his plans to address this next
phase in the nearly six-year-old
conflict, he’s suggested closer alignment
between US and Russian goals
could be in order. His selection
Tuesday of Exxon Mobil CEO Rex
Tillerson, who has extensive business
dealings with Russia and ties
to President Vladimir Putin, fueled
further speculation that Trump will
pursue a rapprochement with Moscow.
Indeed, Trump was already
trying to portray Tillerson’s connections
with Russia as a plus.
Aleppo falls
A warmer relationship could alter
US policy on nuclear weapons,
sanctions, Ukraine and innumerable
other issues - but none so clearly
or quickly as Syria, where President
Bashar Assad’s defeat of US-backed
rebels in Aleppo is poised to be a
turning point. Assad and Russia are
expected seize the moment to try to
persuade the US to abandon its flailing
strategy of trying to prop up the
rebels in their battle to oust Assad.
That decision will fall to Trump.
The president-elect has not commented
or tweeted about the crisis
in Aleppo and widespread fears
of humanitarian disaster. Yet his
previous comments on the broader
conflict suggest he’s more than
open to a policy shift.
During the campaign, Trump
asserted that defeating the Islamic
State group in Syria, not Assad,
must be the top priority, a position
that mirrors Russia’s.
Prioritising the fight against IS
could put the US in closer alignment
with Russia’s public position, in a
Middle Eastern take on the adage
that “the enemy of my enemy is my
friend.” It’s a point Trump appeared
to make during the second presidential
debate when he noted that
he didn’t like Assad, but added, “Assad
is killing IS. Russia is killing IS.”
And in his first days as the president-elect
Trump suggested he
might withdraw US support for the
various rebel groups that make up
Assad’s opposition, telling a newspaper
that “we have no idea who
these people are.”
Trump’s soften policy towards
Russia
Aligning with Russia would make
it harder for the US to corral the rebels’
more strident supporters into
supporting peace mediation. Assad
foes like Turkey, Qatar and Saudi
Arabia might become more inclined
to give extremists advanced weaponry
despite US protestations.
Concerns that Trump may soften
US policy toward Russia, currently
under tough US sanctions over
its actions in Ukraine, burgeoned
during the campaign amid signs of
Russian hacking of political groups.
US intelligence agencies now say
the hacking was intended to help
Trump win.
Those concerns grew louder
still Tuesday when Trump tapped
Tillerson for secretary of state despite
his history of arguing against
Hottest Arctic on record triggers massive ice melt
• AFP, Miami, US
The Arctic shattered heat records
in the past year as unusually warm
air triggered massive melting of ice
and snow and a late fall freeze, US
government scientists said Tuesday.
The grim assessment came in the
Arctic Report Card 2016, a peer-reviewed
document by 61 scientists
around the globe issued by the US
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (Noaa).
The Noaa report covers from
October 2015 to September 2016, a
period it said the Arctic’s average
annual air temperature over land
was the highest on record.
“The report card this year clearly
shows a stronger and more pronounced
signal of persistent warming
than any previous year in our
observational record” going back
to 1900, Noaa Arctic Research Program
director Jeremy Mathis told
the American Geophysical Union
conference in San Francisco, where
the report was released.
The environment has steadily declined
since scientists started doing
the annual report card, now in its 11th
year, co-author Donald Perovich said.
Warming twice as fast
The Arctic region is continuing to
warm up more than twice as fast as
the rest of the planet, which is also
SHRINKING ARCTIC SEA ICE: MULTIPLE INDICATORS
Record minimum
At its annual minimum extent on Sept 10, sea ice cover around
the North Pole was the second lowest ever recorded,
according to NASA data
CANADA
GREENLAND
Sea surface
NORWAY
temperature
peak in August
off Greenland: ICELAND
5Co higher than
1982-2010
average
% area covered
by sea ice
Sept 10, 2016
ALASKA
Source: NASA/NOAA: Arctic Report Card
50 - 75 75 - 100
expected to mark its hottest year in
modern times.
Climate scientists say the reasons
for the rising heat include the burning
of fossil fuels that emit heat-trapping
gases into the atmosphere,
southerly winds that pushed hot air
from the mid-latitudes northward,
as well as the El Nino ocean warming
trend, which ended mid-year.
Donald Trump
RUSSIA
2015-2016
annual air
temperature
over land:
3.5Co higher
than in 1900
Median sea ice
extent since 1981
Loss of old ice
The extent of multi-year ice cover has shrunk
March 1985
March 2016
Multi-year ice: 45% Multi-year ice: 22%
Age of ice
1 year 5+ years
Shrinking total cover
Total area with 15% sea-ice cover
Millions, km 2
14
1981-2010
Average*
10
6
2
2016-2017
2012-2013
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
REUTERS
The Arctic’s annual air temperature
over land was 3.5° C higher
than in 1900, the report said.
The sea surface temperature in
the peak summer month of August
2016 reached 5°C above the average
for 1982-2010 in the Barents and
Chukchi seas and off the east and
west coasts of Greenland.
It was also 28% less than the average
for 1981-2010 in October.
Scientists added a section to the
report about noteworthy records
set in October and November 2016,
even though that extended beyond
the report’s typical time span.
On thin ice
More of the ice that freezes in the
Arctic winter is thin, made of only
REX TILLERSON
64 years old
Nominee for:
US Secretary of State
CEO of oil giant ExxonMobil
Civil engineer. Political novice
Opposes sanctions on Russia.
Was awarded the Russian Order
of Friendship by President Putin
Favours drilling in the Russian
Arctic and an end to limits on US
exports of crude oil and LNG
Advocates a market-based
approach to global warming:
a “revenue-neutral” carbon tax
Nomination requires Senate
confirmation
Sources: Forbes, ExxonMobil
sanctions on Russia, which could
affect Exxon’s joint ventures with
Russia’s state oil company. In 2013,
Putin awarded Tillerson the Order
of Friendship in honor of his efforts
to improve US-Russia ties. •
a single year’s worth of freeze rather
than thicker, more resistant ice
built up over multiple years.
In 1985, almost half (45%) of Arctic
sea ice was called “multi-year
ice.” Now, just 22% of the Arctic is
covered in multi-year ice. The rest
is first-year ice.
In Greenland, the ice sheet continued
to shrink and lose mass as
it has every year since 2002, when
satellite measurements began.
Melting also started early in Greenland
last year, the second earliest in
the 37-year record of observations,
and close to the record set in 2012.
Record-low snow
The springtime snow cover in the
North American Arctic hit a record
low in May, when it fell below 4 million
square kilometres for the first
time since satellite observations began
in 1967.
This melting, combined with retreating
sea ice, has allowed more
sunlight to penetrate the ocean’s
upper layers, stimulating widespread
algae blooms.
The Arctic’s people and animals
are also suffering from the climate
changes.
The Arctic could be free of summer
ice by the 2040s, Perovich said,
adding that the changing temperatures
are already affecting people
who live in the region. •