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there had been attempts within the ec to arrive at a common energy policy,
but the clash of interests between member states had always stood in
the way of such agreement.
Oil was not the only problem aggravating relations between the usa
and the European countries in this period. In fact, the oil problem cannot
be seen in isolation from other politico-economic conflicts. In 1971, not
only had America’s balance of payments been in deficit, but also the
American balance of trade. Particularly in sectors like the motor industry,
steel and electronics, European and Japanese producers had undermined
the American position. Nixon’s reaction was to cancel the dollar’s convertibility
to gold and to devalue the dollar, especially with a view to
making exports more attractive. 14 This suggested that Washington was
prepared to set off a trade war with Western Europe and Japan. Raising
oil prices was a part of that trade war.
The politicising of the oil market was also a consequence of the increasing
self-awareness evident in the actions of the oil-producing countries
who were determined to get a firmer grip on their national oil production.
In the Western consumer countries, such greater participation
evoked only alarm. This fear, however, was not enough to prevent an accord
being signed between the major oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia
and Kuwait, who wanted a step by step increase in the national share in
the oil production up to a maximum of 51%. For the majors, in retrospect,
the consequences of such nationalization subsequently turned out
to exceed expectations at the time, for this did not affect their position in
the processing and distribution sectors at all.
In early 1972 the American State Department produced a secret report
of some seventy pages on The Impending Oil Crisis, setting out the typical
position in which the Western countries now found themselves, the
usa in particular. The report assumed that around 1975, possibly earlier,
the era of a permanent sellers’ market would have arrived, with any of the
several major producers being able to create a supply crisis by cutting off
oil supplies. It was also assumed in this report that America’s energy position
would have weakened by around 1980 to the point where the usa
would be forced to import more than 50% of its oil requirements. 15
The consumer countries had survived the price increases carried
through by opec in 1971, the report declared, as a result of mutual solidarity,
but this success had been underestimated. In the view of the State
Department, opec members must be convinced that long-term stability
would avail them far more than complete chaos and short-term gains. It
was recognized that the devaluation of the dollar had caused problems,
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