<strong>VA</strong>/<strong>DoD</strong> Clinical Practice Guideline for Opioid Therapy for Chronic Pain Zedler et al. (2014) 1,2,3 [58] Dunn et al. (2010) 1 [133] Bohnert et al. (2011) 1,3 [59] Bohnert et al. (2011) 2,3 [59] OR (CI) HR (CI) HR (CI) HR (CI) - 1 0.19 (0.05-0.68) 1 - 1 - 1 1.5 (1.1-1.9) 1.19 (0.40-3.60) 1.88 (1.33-2.67) 1.74 (0.69-4.35) 2.2 (1.5-3.2) 3.11 (1.01-9.51) 4.63 (3.18-6.74) 6.01 (2.29-15.78) 4.1 (2.6-6.5) 11.18 (4.80-26.03) 7.18 (4.85-10.65) 11.99 (4.42-32.56) 1 CNCP; 2 Chronic cancer pain; 3 Study conducted in U.S. Veterans Abbreviations: AOR: adjusted odds ratio; CI: 95% confidence interval; HR: hazard ratio; MEDD: morphine equivalent daily dose; OR: odds ratio In a nested case-control study of U.S. Veterans (not included in our evidence review as it was published after the end of the search date range), Bohnert et al. (2016) examined the association between prescribed opioid dose as a continuous measure (in 10 mg MEDD increments) and overdose.[134] Prescribed opioid dosage was a moderately good predictor of overdose death, but the study did not reveal a specific dosage cut point or threshold above which risk of overdose increased dramatically. Lower prescribed opioid dosages were associated with reduced risk for overdose, but risk was not completely eliminated at lower doses; approximately 40% of overdoses were observed in patients who were prescribed
<strong>VA</strong>/<strong>DoD</strong> Clinical Practice Guideline for Opioid Therapy for Chronic Pain Table 3. Incidence Rate Ratios for Opioid Overdose Deaths, by Average Milligrams Morphine Equivalent Daily Dose[135] MEDD (mg) Deaths Person-Years Sample Size IRR 95% CI Unexposed 151 3,554,850 7,377,860 0.57 0.44, 0.73 >0 - 39.9 98 1,305,835 1,305,969 1 40 - 59.9 90 457,227 457,322 2.6 2.0, 3.5 60 - 79.9 47 213,816 213,868 2.9 2.1, 4.1 80 - 99.9 34 72,448 72,483 6.2 4.2, 9.2 100 - 119.9 23 45,536 45,559 6.7 4.3, 10.6 120 - 139.9 22 20,699 20,721 14.1 8.9, 22.5 140 - 159.9 14 14,586 14,599 12.8 7.3, 22.4 160 - 179.9 15 6,769 6,784 29.5 17.1, 50.7 180 – 199.9 11 9,604 9,615 15.2 8.2, 28.4 200 – 249.9 24 11,653 11,678 27.4 17.5, 42.8 250 – 299.9 20 7,406 7,425 35.9 22.2, 58.0 300 – 349.9 17 4,495 4,512 50.2 30.0, 84.0 350 – 399.9 17 3,563 3,580 63.2 37.8, 105.7 400 – 499.9 14 3,527 3,541 52.7 30.1, 92.2 500 – 5000 32 4,684 4,718 90.4 60.7, 134.6 Total 629 5,736,696 9,560,234 -- -- Abbreviations: CI: confidence interval, IRR: incidence rate ratios; MEDD: morphine equivalent daily dose; mg: milligram(s) Achieving an improved understanding of the factors contributing to prescription opioid-related overdose is an essential step toward addressing this epidemic problem. Although it is widely accepted that progressively higher doses of prescribed opioids result in correspondingly higher risks of opioid overdose, patients using any dose of opioids can still experience life-threatening respiratory or CNS depression, especially when opioid naïve. This risk begins to increase with MEDD as low as 20-50 mg. Risk is further increased when certain concomitant demographic factors, co-occurring medical or psychiatric conditions, or interacting medications or substances exist. Recognizing the lack of evidence of long-term benefit associated with LOT used alone and the risks of harms with use of opioids without risk mitigation, dosing determinations should be individualized based upon patient characteristics and preferences, with the goal of using the lowest dose of opioids for the shortest period of time to achieve well-defined functional treatment goals. Understandably, there will be greater mortality, co-occurring medical conditions, and other adverse events in patients who require higher doses of opioids, even in those who benefit from such therapy. When closer follow-up is needed, healthcare resources and patient adherence should be considered. Subgroups at higher risk Risk of prescription opioid overdose is elevated across MEDD dosage levels in patients with co-occurring depression (moderate-quality evidence).[66,133] Following an elevated baseline adjusted risk ratio (ARR) of 3.96, depressed patients taking 1-19 mg, 20 to