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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASIN Editors Vicente Barros Robin Clarke Pedro Silva Días Project SGP II 057: ¨ Trends in the hydrological cycle of the Plata basin: Raising awareness and new tools for water management ¨ of the INTER AMERICAN INSTITUTE ON GLOBAL CHANGE (IAI)
INDEX FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of stationary climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.2. Climatic and hydrological trends in the La Plata basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.3. Climate forcings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1.4. Global climate models and climate scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.5. Extreme value assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.6. Interdecadal variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 CHAPTER II LA PLATA BASIN CLIMATOLOGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 2.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.2. General precipitation regime . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.2.1. Satellite estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.2.2. Annual and seasonal averages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.2.3. Mean annual cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.3. Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.3.1. Region of the monsoon (Upper Paraguay and High Upper Paraná basins) . . 23 a. Paraguay River upper basin: The Pantanal region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 b. Upper and septentrional basins of the Upper Paraná. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.2 Great Chaco Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.3. Region centred at the east of Paraguay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.3.4. Region of the meridional Planalto and the Rio Grande ridges . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.3.5. Region of the Argentine Litoral and bordering areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.3.6. Eastern Uruguay and South of Rio Grande do Sul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.3.7. West and South borders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 CHAPTER III INTERANNUAL LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY: BACKGROUND . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 3.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 3.2. Variability over the La Plata basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Page 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASI
Page 5 and 6: 7.3. Methodology . . . . . . . . .
Page 7 and 8: 13.3. Regional validation of GCM fo
Page 9 and 10: 1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of sta
Page 11 and 12: Introduction as they pour water ove
Page 13 and 14: A better understanding of the obser
Page 15 and 16: References Introduction Barros, V.
Page 17 and 18: ABSTRACT The hydrologic cycle of th
Page 19 and 20: La Plata basin climatology Within t
Page 21 and 22: in this last description, although
Page 23 and 24: warm season (October-April), in the
Page 25 and 26: La Plata basin climatology b. Upper
Page 27 and 28: La Plata basin climatology 2.3.3. R
Page 29 and 30: La Plata basin climatology Fig. 2.8
Page 31 and 32: 2.3.7. West and South borders La Pl
Page 33 and 34: References La Plata basin climatolo
Page 35 and 36: La Plata basin climatology Robertso
Page 37 and 38: 3.1. Introduction Interannual low f
Page 39 and 40: Interannual low frequency variabili
Page 41 and 42: 1989). This signal varies along eac
Page 43 and 44: Interannual low frequency variabili
Page 45 and 46: The main physiographic and hydrolog
Page 47 and 48: SUB-BASIN COUNTRY Argentina Bolivia
Page 49 and 50: the most important stretches of the
Page 51 and 52: Physiography and Hydrology The Para
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Physiography and Hydrology The Pant
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Physiography and Hydrology forcings
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Physiography and Hydrology It is no
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Physiography and Hydrology tion of
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Physiography and Hydrology INTERNAV
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5.1. Introduction Precipitation and
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From 1956 to 1991, in most of the A
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-15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -15 -20 -25
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Regional precipitation trends 5.3.2
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Regional precipitation trends and L
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trast, other regions suffer floodin
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ABSTRACT The main hydrological tren
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Following are the observed changes:
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In the case of the Paraná River th
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Hydrological trends In order to com
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Hydrological trends In table 6.1 it
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Hydrological trends On the other ha
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the central area of the high basin
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7.1. Introduction Several authors,
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Real evaporation trends a) PET > Pi
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a) b) c) Mean Temperature Real evap
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The positive trends of the mean tem
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d) e) f) Mean Temperature Real evap
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7.5. Discussion and final comments
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ABSTRACT The water, as resource, is
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puts in risk large number of person
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The main services and problems of w
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There are similar problems in diffe
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8.3.3. Energy a. Hydroelectric depe
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(chapters 12 and 13), because of th
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The main services and problems of w
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9.1. Introduction The emissions of
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9.4. Greenhouse effect The atmosphe
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Temperature anomalies (°C) 0.8 0.6
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Global climatic change at a global
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In view of the unavoidability of th
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Background on other regional aspect
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Considering the non-linear interact
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SST anomalies also have influence o
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ABSTRACT The purpose of this chapte
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Global climate models Mid-1970’s
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Global climate models Table 11.1. B
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Global climate models Table 11.2. M
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Although changes in weather and cli
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Socio-economic variables and also s
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Applicability in impact assessments
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of the global climate system to the
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Climate scenarios B2: Assumes a wor
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Climate scenarios The reliability o
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Climate scenarios From Table 12.2 i
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Climate scenarios Fig. 12.5. The mu
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Climate scenarios this would be rel
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Results of global circulation model
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13.2.3. Statistical downscaling The
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La Plata basin are also considerabl
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10 N EQ 10 S 20 S 30 S 40 S 50 S 10
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Regional climatic scenarios Fig. 13
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a. Pre-industrial experiment: Initi
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Regional climatic scenarios Kalnay,
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Low-frequency variability 14.1. Bac
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egime occurred during the periods o
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Fig. 14.2. As Fig. 14.1, except for
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14.4. SST composites Low-frequency
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Low-frequency variability during th
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Fig. 14.10. As Fig. 14.9, except fo
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Low-frequency variability In genera
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Low-frequency variability Mantua, N
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15.1. Introduction Statistical anal
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Statistical analysis of extreme eve
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CURRÍCULA OF THE AUTHORS Vicente B
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Curricula of the autors Rubén Mari
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Proyect: SGP II 057: “Trends in t
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